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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Boyd is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 84%, for a model edge of +1.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Matthew Boyd

CHC

+1.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -526 (1.19)
+1.8% Edge
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin · Indoor
Sat 4 Oct, 6:08PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
85.8%
Implied Probability
84.0%
Model Edge
+1.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed85.8%—84.0%1.16+1.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Matthew Boyd (CHC) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Matthew Boyd for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Boyd has averaged 4.6 hits allowed overall, and 4.8 hits allowed when playing away. This average increases to 5 hits allowed when facing the Brewers. These averages all exceed the bet line of 2.5. Additionally, Boyd's current hit streaks, both overall and away, further suggest a high likelihood of him allowing over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game. His innings pitched (IP) and outs averages also indicate that he is typically on the mound long enough for the opposing team to get more than 2.5 hits. Therefore, the data strongly supports the bet for Boyd to allow over 2.5 hits in the game against the Brewers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak2L2055%
O 2.560%
O 3.530%
O 4.520%
O 5.510%

Matthew Boyd MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak12L2095%
O 1.5100%
O 2.5100%
O 3.580%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%

Matthew Boyd MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak7L2070%
O 0.580%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%

Matthew Boyd MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.4avg earned runs · L5
Streak2L2050%

Matthew Boyd MLB earned runs: averaging 1.4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
15.8avg outs · L5
Streak4L2085%

Matthew Boyd MLB outs: cleared over 12.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 15.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Matthew Boyd (CHC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Boyd is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday 4 October at American Family Field, Milwaukee. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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