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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Chicago Cubs

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 21, 3:10AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
3
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Yankees -4 Spread +514

The model graded 23 markets for New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $614 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 2 Aug 2026, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win30.6%
The price says16.3%
Best price+514
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New York Yankees -4 Long-shot31% chance +514
Spread Long-shot38% chance
Spread Long-shot34% chance
Spread Long-shot27% chance
Spread Lean42% chance
Spread Lean46% chance
Spread Long-shot21% chance
Spread Long-shot16% chance
Spread Lean49% chance
Batter - Total Bases × 1 prop Highup to 91%
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Highup to 81%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 1 prop Highup to 76%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 834 of 1,664 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 20
Under 5.5
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $378
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Yankees
-7.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 3 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,215+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Ryan McMahon 3BDay-to-day
  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Max Fried SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut

Probable pitcher

Gerrit Cole SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Kevin Gausman SPDay-to-day
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut
Availability updated Aug 20, 10:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Trent Grisham Batter - Total Bases
Michael Conforto SFG Batter - Hits
Ben Rice NYY Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 3 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.8Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L53-2Free board11-7

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.8Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L53-2Free board12-10

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
1.2runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.8Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 3 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
3
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3CHWHome
L0–3CHWHome
W7–5CHWHome
L4–11STLHome
L4–8STLHome
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3BALAway
W3–1BALAway
W4–3TORAway
L1–4TORAway
L1–3TORAway

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 3.4 runs per game (3-2) while New York Yankees are at 3.8 (4-1); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for New York Yankees.

3.4
Chicago Cubs runs/G
3.8
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsNew York Yankees
Runs / game3.43.8
Hits / game6.04.2
Home runs / game0.40.8
Walks drawn / game0.83.4
Batter K / game2.24.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.21.2
Pitching K / game2.82.4
Walks allowed / game1.41.4
L5 record3-24-1

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 2, New York Yankees won 3.

DateChicago CubsNew York YankeesWinner
Aug 212New York Yankees
Aug 152Chicago Cubs
Jul 3102New York Yankees
Mar 2438New York Yankees
Mar 23156Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Phil Maton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Kevin Gausman SPDAY-TO-DAY
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Ryan McMahon 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Max Fried SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Our New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs prediction for August 2, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 2, 2026 our model has run New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Ben Rice (NYY) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-286), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
02 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Yankees -0.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings New York Yankees ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 1.5 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Moneyline New York Yankees ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Moneyline Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -2.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Sunday 2 August 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 5 meetings
New York Yankees 3–2 across the last 5 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs1–2New York Yankees
1 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs5–2Chicago Cubs
31 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs0–2New York Yankees
24 Mar 2026New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs3–8New York Yankees
23 Mar 2026New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs15–6Chicago Cubs
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