Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Busch is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 57%, for a model edge of +16.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Michael Busch

CHC

+16.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -133 (1.75)
+16.7% Edge
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Tue 21 Jul, 12:05AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.9%
Implied Probability
57.1%
Model Edge
+16.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases73.9%—57.1%1.35+16.7%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Michael Busch (CHC) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-133)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cubs host the Tigers on July 21, all eyes will be on Michael Busch, but betting on him to go over 1.5 total bases feels like a risky play. Busch has been struggling lately, hitting just .220 over his last few games, and it's hard to see him breaking out against a formidable Tigers pitching staff that has found its groove. Detroit's rotation has been surprisingly effective, boasting a 3.50 ERA in the last month, which puts added pressure on Busch to make solid contact. Moreover, the Cubs' lineup has been inconsistent, with their power numbers dipping significantly. Given Busch's current form and the Tigers’ ability to stifle opposing hitters, it seems more likely he’ll fall short of that total. The under 1.5 total bases looks like the smart move here, especially with the odds reflecting a favorable narrative that supports this trend.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak2L2070%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Michael Busch MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 4 · lo 0
0134

Michael Busch MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak2L2070%
O 0.560%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.520%
O 4.510%

Michael Busch MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Michael Busch MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%

Michael Busch MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Streak2L2060%
O 0.550%

Michael Busch MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Jul 26 Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -133 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -169 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -159 ✓ HIT
07 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Michael Busch (CHC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Busch is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.7% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 21 July at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks