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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 24, 4:03PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Tue 25 Aug 2026, 1:40AM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +140

The model graded 70 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $240 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 25 Aug 2026, 1:40AM at Chase Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win38.4%
The price says40.1%
Best price+140
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Arizona Diamondbacks Long-shot38% chance +140
Spread Long-shot3% chance
Spread Long-shot5% chance
Moneyline Lean51% chance
Batter - RBIs × 8 props Highup to 76%
Batter - Runs Scored × 1 prop Leanup to 57%
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 79%
Batter - Doubles × 14 props Highup to 86%
Batter - Total Bases × 9 props Highup to 68%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Leanup to 57%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Leanup to 56%
Batter - Singles × 7 props Leanup to 58%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Leanup to 56%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 902 of 1,825 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 23
Under 5.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $412
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Arizona Diamondbacks
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Arizona DiamondbacksMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Chicago Cubs on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Chicago Cubs
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Shota Imanaga SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • Ketel Marte 2BOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Mitch Bratt SP
Availability updated Aug 23, 8:32PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 26 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability26 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Pete Crow-Armstrong Batter - RBIs
Pete Crow-Armstrong Batter - Runs Scored
Pete Crow-Armstrong Batter - Hits
Pete Crow-Armstrong Batter - Doubles
Nico Hoerner Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Run LineChicago Cubs run line-3.5 +265
-2.0proj. margin
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.4Away L51-4vs Arizona Diamondbacks L55-0Free board13-11

Chicago Cubs spread vs Arizona Diamondbacks is live and our model makes it 28% (LONG-SHOT); proj. margin -2.0.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsOver 11.5 +230
10.2proj. runs
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs vs Chicago Cubs is live and our model makes it 30% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 10.2.

MoneylineChicago Cubs to win-141
51%model win %
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.4Away L51-4vs Arizona Diamondbacks L55-0Free board11-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline vs Arizona Diamondbacks is live and our model makes it 51% (LEAN); L5 record 2-3.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
1.6runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 2 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–11CINHome
W5–3CINHome
W9–0CINHome
W7–6BOSAway
L4–9BOSAway
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W19–2SEAAway
L5–6SEAAway
L4–5SEAAway
W4–3CHWHome
L0–3CHWHome

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 1.8 runs per game (1-4) while Chicago Cubs are at 1.8 (2-3); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 2.0 for Chicago Cubs.

1.8
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
1.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksChicago Cubs
Runs / game1.81.8
Hits / game3.43.6
Home runs / game0.41.0
Walks drawn / game0.81.4
Batter K / game0.81.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.22.0
Pitching K / game2.21.4
Walks allowed / game1.61.4
L5 record1-42-3

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Arizona Diamondbacks won 1, Chicago Cubs won 4.

DateArizona DiamondbacksChicago CubsWinner
May 348Chicago Cubs
May 202Chicago Cubs
May 156Chicago Cubs
Mar 18168Arizona Diamondbacks
Mar 518Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

26 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Michael Soroka SPOUT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOUT
Ketel Marte 2BOUT
Corbin Burnes SPOUT
Zac Gallen SPOUT
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Blake Walston SPOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Phil Maton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks — where the money went

Since betting opened on Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, the market has moved toward Chicago Cubs across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — Chicago Cubs -1.5▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Arizona Diamondbacks▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Chicago Cubs▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 9.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 9.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Arizona Diamondbacks 1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Chicago Cubs -1▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

Our Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction for August 24, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 24, 2026 our model has run Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Chicago Cubs To Win (-143), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Cubs. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 25 August 2026 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 5 meetings
Chicago Cubs 4–1 across the last 5 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
3 May 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs8–4Chicago Cubs
2 May 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs2–0Chicago Cubs
1 May 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs6–5Chicago Cubs
18 Mar 2026Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks16–8Arizona Diamondbacks
5 Mar 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs8–1Chicago Cubs
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