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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kevin Gausman is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 1.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 2.50 SOlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 2.50 SOlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 30, 5:23PM UTC
MLB

Kevin Gausman

SFG

Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 2.5 -161 (1.62) · $100→$162
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 6:20PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 935 of 1,976 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs CIN @ CHC
updated Aug 29, 6:20PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
See the numbers

For the numbers: the book's price implies 61.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs——61.7%1.79—

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds: Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 Pitcher - Earned Runs (-161)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Tonight, Kevin Gausman needs to keep the Cincinnati Reds from scoring more than two earned runs. He has been strong lately, allowing runs at a rate much lower than the league average. The Cubs also hit well against left-handed pitchers, which gives them a better chance to score, but Gausman has been tough on hitters. The Reds have struggled in their last ten games, winning only three. Plus, the wind is blowing out toward the outfield, which can help hitters, but Gausman has been on point, averaging very few strikeouts lately. The most concrete risk is how competitive the Reds can be, especially if they find their rhythm at the plate.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Kevin Gausman is averaging 4.2 hits, 0.8 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

4.2
Hits
0.8
HR
0.0
RBI
2.4
Runs
1.2
Walks
5.2
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Kevin Gausman has gone over 3.5 SO in 60% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o3.560%
o4.530%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Kevin Gausman is averaging 4.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 4.8 in home games, including his recent form against SEA.

4.2
Hits · Overall
4.8
Hits · Home
6.0
Hits · vs SEA
0.8
HR · Overall
0.6
HR · Home
1.3
HR · vs SEA
Quick answers:How many strikeouts does Kevin Gausman average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Aug 26 Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under -122 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals Pitcher - Earned Runs 2.5 Under -145 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals Pitcher - Hits Allowed 5.5 Under -164 ✓ HIT
25 Aug 26 Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending
19 Aug 26 Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending
13 Aug 26 Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending

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About This Player

Kevin Gausman (SFG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kevin Gausman is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. Their next game is Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs on Saturday 29 August at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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