Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kevin Gausman is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 59%, for a model edge of +22.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:43PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-145 (1.69) · $100→$169
+22.4% Edge
Chicago Cubs
@
Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 11:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
Implied Probability
59.2%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 81.6% | — | 59.2% | 1.23 | +22.4% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime
| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 1/5 |
| Last 10 games | 3/10 |
See the full 20-game form curve
Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.
Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime
Kevin Gausman (SFG) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-145)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Kansas City Royals play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Kevin Gausman (SFG) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-145). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.590%
O 3.570%
O 4.560%
O 5.540%
O 6.520%
O 7.520%
O 8.520%
O 9.520%
Kevin Gausman MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted O 1.590%
O 2.580%
O 3.570%
O 4.540%
O 5.560%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%
Kevin Gausman MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted O 0.580%
O 1.570%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%
Kevin Gausman MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted Kevin Gausman MLB earned runs: averaging 2.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted 80%hit L10
18.8avg outs · L5
Streak3L2075%
Kevin Gausman MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 18.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Kevin Gausman (SFG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kevin Gausman is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.4% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals on Saturday 8 August at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.