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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kevin Gausman is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 57%, for a model edge of +27.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
MLB

Kevin Gausman

TOR

+27.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 2.5 -133 (1.75)
+27.1% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario · Indoor
Tue 21 Jul, 11:07PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
84.3%
Implied Probability
57.1%
Model Edge
+27.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs84.3%—57.1%1.19+27.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Kevin Gausman (TOR) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-133)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When Kevin Gausman takes the mound for the Blue Jays against the Rays, the promise of a low-scoring affair seems all but certain. Gausman has been nothing short of stellar, with a remarkable ability to limit earned runs, often keeping opponents off balance with his potent splitter. Over his last few starts, he’s consistently showcased his dominance, yielding only a handful of earned runs while striking out batters at an impressive rate. The Rays, while a formidable lineup, have struggled against Gausman historically, and their recent form suggests they may not crack the code tonight. Moreover, Toronto’s bullpen has been a reliable fortress, which only adds to the confidence in this bet. With Gausman’s current form and the Rays’ difficulties in producing runs against elite pitching this season, betting on Gausman to stay under 2.5 earned runs feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

2 markets live
Pitcher - Hits AllowedUpcoming vs TBRU 5.5 -161+26.0% edge

Kevin Gausman MLB hits allowed vs TBR. Current line U 5.5 at -161 (+26.0% model edge).

Pitcher - Earned RunsUpcoming vs TBRU 2.5 -133+27.1% edge
70%hit L10
2.2avg earned runs · L5
Home1.6L2060%

Kevin Gausman MLB earned runs: cleared under 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 2.2 earned runs over the last 5 vs TBR. Current line U 2.5 at -133 (+27.1% model edge).

Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak3L2085%
O 2.590%
O 3.570%
O 4.550%
O 5.540%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%
O 9.510%

Kevin Gausman MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2080%
O 0.580%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%

Kevin Gausman MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
18.8avg outs · L5
Streak3L2075%

Kevin Gausman MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 18.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Kevin Gausman (TOR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kevin Gausman is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.1% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday 21 July at Rogers Centre, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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