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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Washington Nationals

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Wed 4 Jun 2025, 10:45PM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 2.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals (MLB), model win probability 48.8%, fair odds 2.05, book price +200, model edge +15.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 4 Jun 2025, 10:45PM at Nationals Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Under
2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Trent Thornton RPDay-to-day
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Jameson Taillon SP

Washington Nationals

  • Trevor Williams SPOut
  • Jake Irvin SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Brad Lord RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Alvarez SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 3:47AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 25 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability25 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Matthew Boyd CHC Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
MacKenzie Gore WSN Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
MacKenzie Gore WSN Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
MacKenzie Gore WSN Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs Chicago Cubs L53-2Win rec6-10

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs Chicago Cubs L53-2ATS6-9

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 4-1, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
2.6implied team total
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs Chicago Cubs L53-2

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.2 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals — model preview

<p>Winning baseball bets for Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs stats and odds.</p>

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-345)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Washington Nationals have been struggling offensively, with an average of just 2.3 runs scored in their last five games overall and 4 runs at home. Their batting average is also low, with an average of 5.2 hits overall and 7.2 hits at home in the last five games. Furthermore, their recent record against the Chicago Cubs is not encouraging, having won just one out of their last five encounters. On the other hand, the Cubs have been solid defensively, allowing an average of 4.8 runs overall and only 3.4 runs when playing away. This, combined with the Nationals' recent poor offensive performance, makes it statistically unlikely that the Nationals will score over 5.5 runs in this game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 4 June 2025 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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