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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 26, 4:10PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 7:15PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +126

The model graded 20 markets for St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $226 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 7:15PM at Wrigley Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win41.5%
The price says42.3%
Best price+126
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals Lean42% chance +126
Moneyline Long-shot39% chance
Spread Long-shot4% chance
Spread Long-shot13% chance
Spread Long-shot9% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
St. Louis Cardinals · $100 returned $228

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 933 of 1,879 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 26
Under 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $440
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
St. Louis Cardinals
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,052+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
St. Louis CardinalsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Masyn Winn SSOut
  • Everson Pereira RFOut
  • Hunter Dobbins SPOut
  • Andre Pallante SPOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Matthew Liberatore SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Clay Holmes SP
Availability updated Aug 26, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L55-0Free board12-9

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L55-0Free board14-12

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
3.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L55-0

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 2 of their last 5 games; St. Louis Cardinals have won 1 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–5ARIAway
W7–0ARIAway
W19–2SEAAway
L5–6SEAAway
L4–5SEAAway
St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–13BALHome
L4–6PHIAway
L3–12PHIAway
L6–7PHIAway
W10–9CINAway

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 1.2 runs per game (1-4) while St. Louis Cardinals are at 2.2 (4-1); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 0.8 for St. Louis Cardinals.

1.2
Chicago Cubs runs/G
2.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals
Runs / game1.22.2
Hits / game1.82.4
Home runs / game0.20.2
Walks drawn / game1.60.4
Batter K / game2.41.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.20.8
Pitching K / game1.21.6
Walks allowed / game0.20.4
L5 record1-44-1

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 5, St. Louis Cardinals won 5.

DateChicago CubsSt. Louis CardinalsWinner
Aug 16411St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 1548St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 1430Chicago Cubs
Jul 3042Chicago Cubs
Jul 2923St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 28102Chicago Cubs
Jul 2773Chicago Cubs
Jul 503St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 564Chicago Cubs
Jul 3117St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT
St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Masyn Winn SSOUT
Everson Pereira RFOUT
Hunter Dobbins SPOUT
Andre Pallante SPOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Our St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Carson Kelly (DET) Under 0.5 RBIs (-312), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Moneyline St. Louis Cardinals ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals -2 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -0.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals -1 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals +1 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cardinals vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Cardinals. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 8 meetings
Even at 4–4 across the last 8 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs4–11St. Louis Cardinals
15 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs4–8St. Louis Cardinals
14 Aug 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs3–0Chicago Cubs
30 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals2–4Chicago Cubs
29 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals3–2St. Louis Cardinals
28 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals2–10Chicago Cubs
27 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals3–7Chicago Cubs
5 Jul 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs0–3St. Louis Cardinals
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