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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 6, 2:06PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 6:30PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Chicago Cubs 1 (Spread)
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (MLB), model win probability 34.7%, fair odds 2.88, book price +390, model edge +14.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 5 Jul 2026, 6:30PM at Wrigley Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Chicago Cubs
-2
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Jordan Walker RFDay-to-day
  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andre Pallante SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Shota Imanaga SP
Availability updated Aug 5, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.0L5 RA1.8Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2Free board10-10

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 4-1, 5.0 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.0L5 RA1.8Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2Free board12-10

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 4-1, 5.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
3.0runs we expect
L5 RF5.0L5 RA1.8Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.0 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 7.0 runs per game (3-2) while St. Louis Cardinals are at 6.0 (4-1); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.0 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for St. Louis Cardinals.

7.0
Chicago Cubs runs/G
6.0
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals
Runs / game7.06.0
Hits / game6.45.0
Home runs / game1.60.6
Walks drawn / game2.21.2
Batter K / game2.63.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.01.8
Pitching K / game3.24.0
Walks allowed / game1.01.6
L5 record3-24-1

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals stats and odds.</p>

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals : St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 (+118)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs host the Cardinals this Sunday, the rivalry is set to heat up, but recent trends favor St. Louis. The Cardinals have been on a tear, showcasing an explosive offense that averages over five runs per game in their last ten outings. With a lineup that’s been hitting on all cylinders, they’ve managed to outscore opponents convincingly. On the mound, St. Louis boasts a starting pitcher with an impressive strikeout rate, which has stifled even the most potent batting orders. In contrast, the Cubs have struggled to find consistency, particularly against left-handed pitching, making this matchup even more daunting for them. With the Cardinals' recent form and their ability to capitalize on Chicago’s defensive lapses, backing St. Louis on the run line at -2.5 feels like a savvy play. They’re not just looking to win; they're aiming to send a message in this historic rivalry. Expect St. Louis to assert their dominance here.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals : St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 (+118)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cardinals roll into Wrigley Field on July 5th, they’ve been riding a wave of offensive prowess that’s hard to ignore. Over the past couple of weeks, their lineup has been a juggernaut, averaging over five runs per game, and they’ve consistently found ways to capitalize on opposing pitching weaknesses. With elite hitters like Goldschmidt and Arenado leading the charge, they’ve shown the ability to explode for runs, even against solid starters. On the flip side, the Cubs have struggled to keep opponents at bay, especially at home, where their pitching staff has allowed runs to pile up. With the Cardinals’ recent form and the Cubs’ pitching woes, taking St. Louis at -2.5 feels like a savvy play. They have not only the momentum but also the firepower to cover that spread and leave a lasting mark on the scoreboard. Look for the Cardinals to assert their dominance in this rivalry matchup.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
8
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
05 Jul 26 Moneyline Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -2 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -1.5 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +1 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -1 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -2.5 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +1.5 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cardinals vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Cardinals. The most recent game between them was Sunday 5 July 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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