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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Chicago Cubs

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 18, 8:05PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Chicago Cubs (Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings)
The model graded 70 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $220 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 60.1%, fair odds 1.66, book price +120, model edge +14.7%. Tip-off Thu 6 Aug 2026, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 13.5 · $100 returned $490

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 754 of 1,520 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 17
Under 5
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $470
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Chicago Cubs
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago CubsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Spencer Arrighetti SPOut
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jose Soriano SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP
Availability updated Aug 19, 12:05AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 31 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability31 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Michael Busch Batter - Walks
Myles Straw CLE Batter - Singles
Ernie Clement CLE Batter - Singles
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Batter - Total Bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2Free board11-7

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2Free board12-9

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
0.3runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–5CHWHome
L4–11STLHome
L4–8STLHome
W3–0STLHome
L0–7WSHAway
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4NYYHome
W4–1NYYHome
W3–1NYYHome
L0–7BOSHome
W6–4BOSHome

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 4.4 runs per game (3-2) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 2.4 (3-2); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Toronto Blue Jays.

4.4
Chicago Cubs runs/G
2.4
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game4.42.4
Hits / game4.64.0
Home runs / game1.40.2
Walks drawn / game0.81.0
Batter K / game2.03.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.41.6
Pitching K / game2.62.0
Walks allowed / game1.02.8
L5 record3-23-2

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 2, Toronto Blue Jays won 1.

DateChicago CubsToronto Blue JaysWinner
Aug 632Chicago Cubs
Jun 2068Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 19162Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

31 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Spencer Arrighetti SPOUT
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BOUT
Jake Bloss SPOUT
Lenyn Sosa 2BOUT
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Luis Urias 2BOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Our Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs prediction for August 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 7, 2026 our model has run Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Michael Busch (CHC) Under 0.5 Walks (-455), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Moneyline Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Chicago Cubs 1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Chicago Cubs 2.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Thursday 6 August 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Chicago Cubs 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs3–2Chicago Cubs
20 Jun 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs6–8Toronto Blue Jays
19 Jun 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs16–2Chicago Cubs
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