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Of our last 628 graded player prop tips, 51% got a better price than where the market closed.

NBA Player Props • Updated daily

Today's NBA Prop Bets — Free Player Props for Tonight's Games

Every NBA player prop on today's board, priced and ranked best first. All 58 are below, top prop free.

See today's edge picks View the verified record
20 ML models
19 Leagues daily
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58 props on tonight's board, and the 3 strongest are free

The prop we'd back tonight · Heat at Hornets
Dennis Schroder Under 5.5 assists +130
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win62.6%
The price says43.5%
$50 returns$115.00
The rest of tonight's propsfull reasoning on each prop below
MIA v CHA Dennis Schroder Under 5.5 assists High63% chance +130
GS v PHX Khaman Maluach Under 7.5 rebounds High65% chance +200
NO v DEN Nikola Jokic Under 22.5 rebs + asts Lean57% chance +115
BKN v CLE Pts + rebs Lean55% chance Members
SA v DAL Pts + rebs Lean55% chance Members
WSH v CHI Points Lean50% chance Members
HOU v ATL Points Lean45% chance Members
MIA v CHA Rebs + asts Lean57% chance Members
MIA v CHA Pts + asts Lean57% chance Members
MIA v CHA Pts + rebs + asts Lean56% chance Members
MIA v CHA Rebounds Lean57% chance Members
MIA v CHA Pts + rebs + asts Lean55% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
The model's call on 55 more props
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Dennis Schroder Under 5.5 Assists
-125 best over price · 6 books
Chance to win: 62.6% The price says 43.5%
Best price 130
Reasoning

Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat: Dennis Schroder Under 5.5 Assists (+130)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Dennis Schroder to get under 5.5 assists tonight, he needs to face a tough Miami Heat defense that forces turnovers really well. Since 2018, Miami has taken the ball away from opponents more often than most teams, which could lead to fewer chances for Schroder to set up his teammates. The Hornets also give up a lot of rebounds, so the Heat might control the boards and limit fast breaks. With both teams likely to play at a slower pace, Schroder's opportunities to dish out assists could be fewer than usual. The biggest risk is that he could have a standout night, but the numbers suggest he's more likely to struggle.

NBA • Warriors at Suns
Khaman Maluach Under 7.5 Rebounds
Chance to win: 65.2% The price says 33.3%
Best price 200
Reasoning

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors: Khaman Maluach Under 7.5 Rebounds (+200)

Odds correct at time of publishing

You can get Khaman Maluach's rebounds at under 7.5 for a great price. Our numbers really like this pick because Maluach has been averaging around 8.7 rebounds at home, but he has faced tough competition lately. The Golden State Warriors let opponents grab about 44.2 boards a game, which can make things tricky for him. Maluach's performance can go up and down, and he only managed 4 loose balls in 46 games this season. With the Suns playing against a team that forces turnovers well, there's a solid chance he might not hit that mark. Just remember, even if the numbers favor this pick, there's always a risk involved.

NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Nikola Jokic Under 22.5 Rebs + Asts
Chance to win: 56.8% The price says 46.5%
Best price 115
Reasoning

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans: Nikola Jokic Under 22.5 Rebs + Asts (+115)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Nikola Jokic needs to grab fewer than 22.5 rebounds and assists tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans. He's been solid, but we believe he might just fall short. The Pelicans allow quite a few rebounds, but Jokic has been averaging fewer assists lately, especially when playing away. The Nuggets are at home, and Jokic does score well here, but the Pelicans also force turnovers, which might limit his opportunities. Plus, with both teams having similar defensive stats, it could be a tighter game than expected, making it tougher for Jokic to rack up those numbers. Just keep an eye on how the game flows!

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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Dennis SchroderPts + Asts · line 18.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Dennis SchroderPts + Rebs + Asts · line 21.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Moussa DiabateRebounds · line 8.5
-185 best over price · 2 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Moussa DiabatePts + Rebs + Asts · line 19.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Brandon MillerPts + Rebs + Asts · line 29.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 43.5%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Dennis SchroderPts + Rebs · line 15.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Brandon MillerPts + Asts · line 24.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 44.4%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Brandon MillerPoints · line 19.5
-204 best over price · 2 books

Brandon Miller is averaging 1.2 turnovers a game across 10 games.

Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 36.4%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Moussa DiabateRebs + Asts · line 10.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Moussa DiabatePts + Rebs · line 17.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 43.5%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Brandon MillerPts + Rebs · line 26.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 45.5%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Dennis SchroderPoints · line 11.5
-222 best over price · 2 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 37.7%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Brandon MillerRebs + Asts · line 7.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 39.2%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints · line 23.5
-278 best over price · 1 book
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 70.9%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Grayson AllenPoints · line 13.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 51.3%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Davion MitchellPoints · line 9.5
-128 best over price · 9 books

Davion Mitchell has averaged 5.5 field goals made across the last 10 games.

Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 55.2%
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NBA • Heat at Hornets
Klay ThompsonRebounds · line 2.5
+135 best over price · 12 books

Klay Thompson is averaging 1.2 rebounds across the last 20.

Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 59.9%
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NBA • Nets at Cavaliers
Jaylon TysonPts + Rebs · line 12.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 43.5%
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NBA • Nets at Cavaliers
Keon EllisPoints · line 5.5
-200 best over price · 1 book
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 35.1%
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NBA • Nets at Cavaliers
Sam MerrillPoints · line 6.5
-189 best over price · 8 books
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 37.0%
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NBA • Nets at Cavaliers
Keon EllisPts + Asts · line 8.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Nets at Cavaliers
Keon EllisPts + Rebs · line 8.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 40.0%
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NBA • Nets at Cavaliers
Keon EllisPts + Rebs + Asts · line 10.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 39.2%
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NBA • Nets at Cavaliers
Egor DeminPts + Asts · line 12.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Nets at Cavaliers
Egor DeminPoints · line 8.5
-208 best over price · 7 books

Egor Demin is averaging 8.1 field goals attempted across the last 20.

Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 37.7%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
Naji MarshallPts + Rebs · line 21.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 45.5%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
Naji MarshallPts + Rebs + Asts · line 25.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 42.6%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
Naji MarshallPoints · line 14.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 35.1%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
Naji MarshallPts + Asts · line 20.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 44.4%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
Naji MarshallRebounds · line 4.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 40.8%
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NBA • Wizards at Bulls
Jalen SmithPoints · line 10.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 34.5%
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NBA • Wizards at Bulls
Jalen SmithPts + Rebs · line 20.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 46.5%
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NBA • Wizards at Bulls
Jalen SmithPts + Rebs + Asts · line 20.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 38.5%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
De'Aaron FoxPoints · line 11.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 69.9%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
Victor WembanyamaPts + Rebs + Asts · line 40.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 44.4%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
De'Aaron FoxPts + Rebs · line 18.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 51.8%
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NBA • Spurs at Mavericks
Daniel GaffordRebounds · line 5.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 37.0%
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NBA • Rockets at Hawks
Alperen SengunPoints · line 17.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 64.9%
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NBA • Rockets at Hawks
Reed SheppardPoints · line 8.5
Day to day
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 65.4%
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NBA • Rockets at Hawks
Onyeka Okongwu3-Pointers · line 1.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: High The price says 53.5%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Nikola JokicPts + Rebs + Asts · line 48.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 46.5%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Nikola JokicRebounds · line 11.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 40.0%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Nikola JokicAssists · line 8.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 33.3%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Nikola JokicPts + Asts · line 35.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 46.5%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Jamal Murray3-Pointers · line 2.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: High The price says 44.2%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Christian BraunPts + Rebs + Asts · line 17.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 40.8%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Christian BraunPoints · line 9.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 32.8%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Christian BraunPts + Rebs · line 16.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 47.6%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Christian BraunPts + Asts · line 13.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 45.5%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Nikola JokicPts + Rebs · line 38.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 47.6%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Aaron GordonPts + Rebs + Asts · line 23.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 40.0%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
Jeremiah FearsPts + Rebs · line 14.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 55.6%
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NBA • Pelicans at Nuggets
DeMar DeRozan3-Pointers · line 0.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 48.8%
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NBA • Warriors at Suns
Khaman MaluachPoints · line 7.5
Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win: Lean The price says 37.7%
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The model behind the picks

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Direct answer

NBA player props are bets on a player's stat line like points, rebounds, assists, or PRA. Bet Better shows probability (chance the bet hits) and edge (value versus implied odds), so you can focus on props that look mispriced today.

What is a prop Chance and value call Markets covered FAQs

How to Read, Compare, and Bet NBA Player Props

New to props? Start with the definitions below, then scroll back up to today's list and sort by edge. Built to be scan-friendly for humans and parse-friendly for answer engines.

What is an NBA player prop bet?

An NBA player prop bet is an over or under wager on a player's statistics in a single game. Instead of betting the team to win, you bet a stat outcome like points, rebounds, assists, threes, or PRA.

How we decide which props are worth a look

Probability is our estimated chance the prop hits. The value call is the gap between our probability and the chance the price suggests from the odds. A gap in your favour means the price looks better than our estimate, which can indicate value.

What prop markets are covered?

You will commonly see points, rebounds, assists, threes made, steals, blocks, turnovers, double-doubles, and combined markets like PRA. Coverage depends on which markets are available for upcoming games.

Best way to use this page

Sort mentally by edge first, then sanity-check the market and context inside the reasoning accordion. If you want a faster filter layer, use the filters above the board.

NBA Team Profiles

View picks, player props, and model performance history for any team. For example, see the Boston Celtics or Los Angeles Lakers team pages.

Game Matchup Pages

Dig deeper on a specific game with all picks and player props in one place. Each matchup page includes historical head-to-head model performance.

Click any team name on a prop card above to view that team's full profile, upcoming game pick, player props, and model performance history. Click any player name to view their individual pick history, value calls, and AI analysis.

MarketMeaningExampleWhen it matters
Points Total points scored by the player. Over 24.5 points Usage, minutes, efficiency, matchup and pace.
Rebounds Total rebounds, often sensitive to role and opponent shot profile. Under 10.5 rebounds Minutes, position, opponent pace, missed shots, rotations.
Assists Teammate makes after the player's pass leads to a basket. Over 6.5 assists Ball handling, teammate shooting, role changes, pace.
Threes Three-pointers made by the player. Over 2.5 threes Attempt volume, scheme, shot quality, variance.
PRA Points plus rebounds plus assists combined into one total. Over 34.5 PRA Great for all-around players, smooths single-stat volatility.

Data context references: NBA stats and Basketball Reference. Always verify line rules at your sportsbook. Nothing on this page is a guarantee.

Difference between props and game picks

Game picks focus on team outcomes like moneyline and spread. Props focus on an individual player's stat line. Props can sometimes isolate value even when the overall game looks efficiently priced.

Why AI answers prefer pages like this

Clear definitions, short direct answers, structured headings, and FAQs make it easier for answer engines to extract accurate information. That is why this page includes explicit "what is" and "how does" sections.

Can I see a team's full prop history?

Yes. Click any team name on a prop card to go to that team's profile page, which shows their upcoming game pick, today's player props, model performance history, and a full player directory.

Can I see a player's full pick history?

Yes. Click any player name on a prop card to go to their player profile, which shows their latest pick, the model's chance and value call, AI analysis, and their full track record of past picks with results.

NBA Player Props FAQ

Direct answers structured for featured snippets and AI answer engines.

Are NBA player props good for beginners?

They can be, as long as you focus on simple markets (points, rebounds, assists) and avoid overconfidence. Use chance and value call as guidance, then read the reasoning to understand context.

What does edge mean in plain English?

The value call is potential value. If the odds imply a lower chance than our model estimates, the bet may be priced too generously. Edge does not remove randomness — it just aims to find better prices.

How often is this page updated?

Props update as markets open and odds move. The schema dateModified reflects the latest update time when content changes.

Where can I learn the full methodology?

Start here: Actuarial sports betting methodology. It explains how probabilities and value are derived at a high level.

Internal Links and Next Steps

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