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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Merrill is Over 10.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +24.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NBA

Sam Merrill

Cleveland Cavaliers

+24.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 10.5 -118 (1.85)
+24.4% Edge
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Mon 20 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
78.4%
Implied Probability
54.1%
Model Edge
+24.4%
Predicted Value
15.9 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs78.4%54.1%1.27+24.4%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-118)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

With the Cavaliers hosting the Raptors, Sam Merrill's role is primed for a breakout. His recent home performances have shown him to be a reliable contributor, averaging 11 points and 2.4 rebounds in his last five games at home. The numbers against the Raptors suggest he can exploit their defense; although his past performances against them have seen him average 5.7 points at home, his overall momentum is undeniable. Consider this: Merrill has hit the over on 10.5 points and rebounds in 9 of his last 11 games, and he's been especially effective at home, hitting the mark in 3 of his last 4 appearances. With an expected stat value of nearly 16, it's clear that he's not just a role player tonight. In a matchup where every point matters, Merrill seems ready to rise to the occasion, making the over a solid play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
2.2avg · last 10
L52.0Szn1.9Home1.9Away1.9Best9
1+82%
2+54%
3+30%
4+13%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.2 · hi 5 · lo 0
3522032410

Sam Merrill is averaging 2.2 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.9, best 9). He clears 2+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
2.1avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.5Home1.8Away1.3Best9
2+44%
4+13%
6+1%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.1 · hi 4 · lo 0
3441114021

Sam Merrill is averaging 2.1 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.5, best 9). He clears 2+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
7.0avg · last 10
L56.8Szn7.0Home7.1Away6.9Best27
2+90%
7+44%
12+16%
17+4%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 7 · hi 15 · lo 0
915660961432

Sam Merrill is averaging 7.0 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.0, best 27). He clears 7+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
9.1avg · last 10
L58.4Szn8.6Home8.9Away8.2Best29
4+82%
9+46%
14+14%
19+5%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 9.1 · hi 19 · lo 1
1219107110101453

Sam Merrill is averaging 9.1 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.6, best 29). He clears 9+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
9.5avg · last 10
L59.4Szn9.3Home9.8Away8.8Best30
4+86%
9+52%
14+18%
19+3%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 9.5 · hi 18 · lo 2
1118710210101845

Sam Merrill is averaging 9.5 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.3, best 30). He clears 9+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
11.6avg · last 10
L511.0Szn10.8Home11.6Away10.1Best32
1+100%
6+82%
11+53%
16+16%
21+5%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 11.6 · hi 22 · lo 3
14221111311141866

Sam Merrill is averaging 11.6 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.8, best 32). He clears 11+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs 10.5 Over -118 ✗ MISS
20 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Points 7.5 Over -152 ✗ MISS
20 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Points 8.5 Over -108 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Points Pending
18 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Points Pending
18 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Merrill is Over 10.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +24.4% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday 20 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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