Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 30.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +22.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NBA

Jamal Murray

Denver Nuggets

+22.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 30.5 -106 (1.94)
+22.8% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.3%
Implied Probability
51.5%
Model Edge
+22.8%
Predicted Value
26.0 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs74.3%—51.5%1.35+22.8%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-106)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, all eyes will be on Jamal Murray, but a closer look reveals a compelling case for betting the under on his combined points and rebounds total of 30.5. In his last five games, Murray has averaged 23.6 points and 4.6 rebounds, falling short of that threshold. At home, he's done slightly better, with averages of 22.4 points and 4.8 rebounds, but still not enough to hit the mark consistently. Against Minnesota, he's been productive, averaging 27.6 points in recent matchups, yet his performance at home dips to 24.6 points. With the Nuggets' depth and a strong focus on team play, there's every reason to believe Murray's numbers will remain modest. Given his recent home hit rate of 75%, it's wise to bet on him staying under 30.5 in this matchup.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
5.1avg · last 10
L54.6Szn5.9Home6.2Away5.7Best15
2+99%
4+86%
6+61%
8+20%
10+6%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 5.1 · hi 8 · lo 1
4778261853

Jamal Murray is averaging 5.1 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.9, best 15). He clears 6+ in 61% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
22.3avg · last 10
L521.4Szn21.6Home21.2Away21.9Best55
12+94%
17+73%
22+41%
27+25%
32+10%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 22.3 · hi 43 · lo 13
23134321162114271728

Jamal Murray is averaging 22.3 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.6, best 55). He clears 22+ in 41% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
27.4avg · last 10
L526.0Szn27.5Home27.3Away27.6Best60
17+91%
22+76%
27+51%
32+27%
37+14%
Game log vs O 26.5avg 27.4 · hi 50 · lo 15
27205029182715352231

Jamal Murray is averaging 27.4 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 27.5, best 60). He clears 27+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
27.0avg · last 10
L525.8Szn25.6Home25.1Away26.1Best61
16+92%
21+70%
26+43%
31+24%
36+11%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 27 · hi 48 · lo 18
23204829212718312132

Jamal Murray is averaging 27.0 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.6, best 61). He clears 26+ in 43% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
32.1avg · last 10
L530.4Szn31.5Home31.3Away31.8Best68
22+92%
27+68%
32+44%
37+29%
42+11%
Game log vs O 31.5avg 32.1 · hi 55 · lo 19
27275537233319392635

Jamal Murray is averaging 32.1 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 31.5, best 68). He clears 32+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
4.7avg · last 10
L54.4Szn4.1Home3.9Away4.2Best13
2+90%
4+63%
6+24%
8+5%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 4.7 · hi 8 · lo 0
0758564444

Jamal Murray is averaging 4.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.1, best 13). He clears 4+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
9.8avg · last 10
L59.0Szn10.0Home10.1Away9.9Best24
4+99%
7+85%
10+56%
13+22%
16+6%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 9.8 · hi 16 · lo 4
414121671251297

Jamal Murray is averaging 9.8 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.0, best 24). He clears 10+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs 30.5 Under -106 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Asts 33.5 Under -120 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs + Asts 37.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Asts — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 30.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.8% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks