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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 26.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +24.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:13AM UTC
NBA

Jamal Murray

Denver Nuggets

+24.6% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Points Under 26.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+24.6% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
78.0%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+24.6%
Predicted Value
22.0 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points78.0%53.5%1.28+24.6%

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AI Analysis

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Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) Under 26.5 Points (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Nuggets gear up to face the Timberwolves, all eyes will be on Jamal Murray, but here's the twist: we're looking at him to fall under 26.5 points. Sure, he's been hot lately, averaging 23.6 points over his last five games, but a closer look reveals a pattern that favors the under. At home, that average dips to 22.4, and while he's had some impressive outings against Minnesota, his recent performances suggest a cooling off. In fact, against this opponent, he's averaged 24.6 points at home, not quite enough to feel secure at 26.5. Plus, if you consider that he's hit the under in his last three games-and four straight at home-the signs are pointing towards a more subdued scoring night. With the pressure of the postseason ramping up, expect him to distribute the ball more than score. This makes the under an intriguing play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Jamal Murray — 2024-25 season averages

Over 79 games in the 2024-25 season, Jamal Murray averaged 21.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in 37.0 minutes per game, shooting 46.9% from the field and 39.0% from three-point range.

21.6
PPG
4.1
RPG
5.9
APG
1.3
SPG
0.5
BPG
37.0
MPG
46.9%
FG%
39.0%
3P%

Jamal Murray — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jamal Murray has played 41.2 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

41.2
MPG (L5)
21.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jamal Murray — points hit rate

Jamal Murray has scored over 15.5 points in 53% of 401 career games.

o11.570%
o12.567%
o15.553%
o20.531%
o25.515%

Jamal Murray — home vs away scoring

At home Jamal Murray averages 21.2 points per game; on the road, 21.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

21.2
PPG at home
21.9
PPG on the road

Jamal Murray — scoring by opponent

Jamal Murray scores most against the PHX, averaging 24.6 points per game in that matchup.

24.6
PHX
24.4
UTAH
23.5
LAL
22.9
BOS
21.5
CLE
21.3
WSH

Jamal Murray — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jamal Murray has averaged 22.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ OKC422843
11 Mayvs OKC411745
9 Mayvs OKC482748
7 May@ OKC311441
5 May@ OKC442166
3 Mayvs LAC421652
1 May@ LAC442188
29 Aprvs LAC404357
26 Apr@ LAC421377
24 Apr@ LAC362304
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs 37.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Asts 39.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points 32.5 Under -105 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Asts Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Jamal Murray is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 26.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +24.6% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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