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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 30.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 52%, edge +22.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 7:32PM UTC
NBA

Jamal Murray

Denver Nuggets

+22.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 30.5 -106 (1.94) · $100→$194
+22.8% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
26.0 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.3% · the book's price implies 51.5% · gap +22.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs74.3%51.5%1.35+22.8%

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AI Analysis

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Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-106)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, targeting Jamal Murray for under 30.5 points and rebounds feels like a savvy play. While Murray has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent performances tell a different story. Averaging just 23.6 points and 4.6 rebounds over the last five outings, he's not hitting that lofty mark consistently. At home, he's slightly better with an average of 22.4 points and 4.8 rebounds, but even then, he falls short of the 30.5 threshold.The Timberwolves have also been a tough matchup for him, with his average points at home against them sitting at 24.6 and rebounds dipping to 3.2. With a hit rate of just 75% in his last four home games, it's clear that while he's a key player, tonight may not be his night. Taking the under on Murray feels like the right call in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Jamal Murray — 2024-25 season averages

Over 79 games in the 2024-25 season, Jamal Murray averaged 21.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in 37.0 minutes per game, shooting 46.9% from the field and 39.0% from three-point range.

21.6
PPG
4.1
RPG
5.9
APG
1.3
SPG
0.5
BPG
37.0
MPG
46.9%
FG%
39.0%
3P%

Jamal Murray — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jamal Murray has played 41.2 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

41.2
MPG (L5)
21.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jamal Murray — points hit rate

Jamal Murray has scored over 15.5 points in 53% of 401 career games.

o11.570%
o12.567%
o15.553%
o20.531%
o25.515%

Jamal Murray — home vs away scoring

At home Jamal Murray averages 21.2 points per game; on the road, 21.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

21.2
PPG at home
21.9
PPG on the road

Jamal Murray — scoring by opponent

Jamal Murray scores most against the PHX, averaging 24.6 points per game in that matchup.

24.6
PHX
24.4
UTAH
23.5
LAL
22.9
BOS
21.5
CLE
21.3
WSH

Jamal Murray — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jamal Murray has averaged 22.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ OKC422843
11 Mayvs OKC411745
9 Mayvs OKC482748
7 May@ OKC311441
5 May@ OKC442166
3 Mayvs LAC421652
1 May@ LAC442188
29 Aprvs LAC404357
26 Apr@ LAC421377
24 Apr@ LAC362304
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 30.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.8% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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