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The latest Bet Better model pick for Davion Mitchell is Under 12.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +20.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
NBA

Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat

+20.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Under 12.5 -112 (1.89)
+20.1% Edge
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
73.0%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+20.1%
Predicted Value
8.9 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points73.0%—52.9%1.37+20.1%

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AI Analysis

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Davion Mitchell (Miami Heat) Under 12.5 Points (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In Thursday's showdown between the Raptors and Heat, Davion Mitchell's scoring seems primed for a dip. Playing away, he's averaged a modest 8.8 points in his last five games on the road, and against Miami, that number drops to just 8.5. This isn't just a fluke; his overall performance has consistently fallen under the 12.5 mark, hitting it only once in the last seven outings. Mitchell's recent form has him averaging 11.2 points overall, but the Heat's defensive strategies could further stifle his contributions. With an expected stat value of 8.94, it's easy to see why the Under is enticing. Given his last three away games resulted in hitting the Under, it's hard to envision him breaking through that threshold against a well-rounded Miami defense. So, betting on Mitchell to stay under 12.5 points feels like a smart play this time around.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.6avg · last 10
L52.2Szn1.2Home1.2Away1.2Best5
1+70%
2+35%
3+11%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.6 · hi 4 · lo 0
0210242221

Davion Mitchell is averaging 1.6 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.2, best 5). He clears 1+ in 70% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
6.7avg · last 10
L56.0Szn5.0Home5.0Away5.1Best17
1+98%
3+89%
5+55%
7+28%
9+8%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 6.7 · hi 9 · lo 3
9838959655

Davion Mitchell is averaging 6.7 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.0, best 17). He clears 5+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
13.5avg · last 10
L515.2Szn8.5Home8.4Away8.6Best28
3+86%
8+55%
13+19%
18+6%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 13.5 · hi 18 · lo 4
121711415161818168

Davion Mitchell is averaging 13.5 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.5, best 28). He clears 8+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
20.2avg · last 10
L521.2Szn13.5Home13.4Away13.7Best37
4+98%
9+78%
14+46%
19+23%
24+9%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 20.2 · hi 27 · lo 12
21251412242127242113

Davion Mitchell is averaging 20.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 13.5, best 37). He clears 14+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
16.2avg · last 10
L517.6Szn10.8Home11.0Away10.5Best31
1+96%
6+79%
11+51%
16+21%
21+5%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 16.2 · hi 22 · lo 8
162013817192219208

Davion Mitchell is averaging 16.2 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.8, best 31). He clears 11+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
22.9avg · last 10
L523.6Szn15.8Home15.9Away15.6Best40
6+96%
11+75%
16+46%
21+29%
26+8%
Game log vs O 15.5avg 22.9 · hi 31 · lo 13
25281616262431252513

Davion Mitchell is averaging 22.9 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.8, best 40). He clears 16+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
2.7avg · last 10
L52.4Szn2.3Home2.5Away1.9Best9
2+64%
4+25%
6+3%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.7 · hi 4 · lo 0
4324234140

Davion Mitchell is averaging 2.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.3, best 9). He clears 2+ in 64% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
9.4avg · last 10
L58.4Szn7.3Home7.5Away7.1Best18
1+98%
4+88%
7+56%
10+25%
13+8%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 9.4 · hi 13 · lo 5
131151211813795

Davion Mitchell is averaging 9.4 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.3, best 18). He clears 7+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Points 12.5 Under -112 ✗ MISS
04 Apr 26 Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Pts + Asts 17.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
04 Apr 26 Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Points 8.5 Under +188 ✗ MISS
04 Apr 26 Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
04 Apr 26 Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
04 Apr 26 Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Davion Mitchell (Miami Heat) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Davion Mitchell is Under 12.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.1% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors on Thursday 9 April at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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