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Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat

Value call

Davion Mitchell (Miami Heat) has one live pick today: under 12.5 points that pays $189 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
8.9 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.0% · the book's price implies 52.9% · gap +20.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 7:00 PM ET
Davion Mitchell
under 12.5 points
Points Under 12.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
Value call
HIGHWins about 73 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.90 Odds-112
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Davion Mitchell is Under 12.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 6:48AM UTC
DAY-TO-DAY
Mitchell (rest) won't suit up for Saturday's exhibition against the Timberwolves, Eric Nehm of The Athletic reports.
updated Oct 10, 10:27PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points73.0%—52.9%1.37+20.1%

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AI Analysis

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Davion Mitchell (Miami Heat) Under 12.5 Points (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In Thursday's showdown between the Raptors and Heat, Davion Mitchell's scoring seems primed for a dip. Playing away, he's averaged a modest 8.8 points in his last five games on the road, and against Miami, that number drops to just 8.5. This isn't just a fluke; his overall performance has consistently fallen under the 12.5 mark, hitting it only once in the last seven outings. Mitchell's recent form has him averaging 11.2 points overall, but the Heat's defensive strategies could further stifle his contributions. With an expected stat value of 8.94, it's easy to see why the Under is enticing. Given his last three away games resulted in hitting the Under, it's hard to envision him breaking through that threshold against a well-rounded Miami defense. So, betting on Mitchell to stay under 12.5 points feels like a smart play this time around.

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Pick History & Track Record

Davion Mitchell — 2024-25 season averages

Over 80 games in the 2024-25 season, Davion Mitchell averaged 8.5 points, 2.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists in 28.0 minutes per game, shooting 48.2% from the field and 41.1% from three-point range.

8.5
PPG
2.3
RPG
5.0
APG
1.0
SPG
0.2
BPG
28.0
MPG
48.2%
FG%
41.1%
3P%

Davion Mitchell — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Davion Mitchell has played 36.4 minutes per game and started 60% of them.

36.4
MPG (L5)
15.2
PPG (L5)
60%
Started

Davion Mitchell — points hit rate

Davion Mitchell has scored over 11.5 points in 41% of 66 career games.

o11.541%
o12.536%
o15.521%

Davion Mitchell — home vs away scoring

At home Davion Mitchell averages 8.4 points per game; on the road, 8.6. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

8.4
PPG at home
8.6
PPG on the road

Davion Mitchell — scoring by opponent

Davion Mitchell scores most against the CLE, averaging 9.2 points per game in that matchup.

9.2
CLE
9.1
BOS
9.0
ATL
8.7
OKC
8.7
HOU
8.4
GS

Davion Mitchell — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Davion Mitchell has averaged 13.5 points, 2.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
28 Aprvs CLE35805
26 Aprvs CLE371645
23 Apr@ CLE361816
20 Apr@ CLE341849
18 Apr@ ATL401635
16 Apr@ CHI331529
13 Aprvs WSH20448
11 Apr@ NO221123
9 Apr@ CHI361738
7 Aprvs PHI361249
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers 3-Pointers 2.5 Under -213 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat Pts + Rebs 10.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
12 Mar 26 Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat Assists 6.5 Under -161 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Points — — — Pending
04 Apr 26 Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Pts + Asts — — — Pending
04 Apr 26 Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Davion Mitchell (Miami Heat) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Davion Mitchell is Under 12.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.1% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors on Thursday 9 April at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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