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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Naji Marshall is Over 14.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 67%, versus the book's implied 43%, for a model edge of +23.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 8:05AM UTC
NBA

Naji Marshall

Dallas Mavericks

+23.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 14.5 +134 (2.34) · $100→$234
+23.8% Edge
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
66.6%
Implied Probability
42.7%
Model Edge
+23.8%
Predicted Value
17.0 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points66.6%42.7%1.50+23.8%

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AI Analysis

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Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) Over 14.5 Points (+134)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Mavericks take on the Suns, Naji Marshall's scoring potential stands out, making the Over on 14.5 points an intriguing play. Recently, Marshall has been lighting it up on the road, averaging 20.8 points in his last five away games. This surge aligns with a solid performance against the Mavericks, where he's dropped an impressive 19.8 points per contest over the past few matchups. With a hit rate of 4 out of 5 in his last away games, he's clearly found his rhythm away from home. While his overall average is slightly lower at 13.8 in his last five, the upward trend suggests he's poised to break through against a Suns defense that may overlook him in their game plan. With an expected stat value of nearly 17 points, it's a strong bet that Marshall will not only meet but exceed the 14.5 mark tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Naji Marshall — 2024-25 season averages

Over 71 games in the 2024-25 season, Naji Marshall averaged 13.2 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 27.9 minutes per game, shooting 51.2% from the field and 27.9% from three-point range.

13.2
PPG
4.7
RPG
3.0
APG
1.0
SPG
0.2
BPG
27.9
MPG
51.2%
FG%
27.9%
3P%

Naji Marshall — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Naji Marshall has played 31.0 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

31.0
MPG (L5)
12.6
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Naji Marshall — home vs away scoring

At home Naji Marshall averages 12.3 points per game; on the road, 14.1. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

12.3
PPG at home
14.1
PPG on the road

Naji Marshall — scoring by opponent

Naji Marshall scores most against the HOU, averaging 10.4 points per game in that matchup.

10.4
HOU
9.1
MEM
9.1
OKC
8.4
PHI
8.4
PHX
8.3
SA

Naji Marshall — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Naji Marshall has averaged 12.2 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
18 Apr@ MEM341345
16 Apr@ SAC29943
13 Apr@ MEM281132
11 Aprvs TOR28725
9 Aprvs LAL362348
5 Apr@ LAC33921
4 Apr@ LAC362244
2 Aprvs ATL35628
31 Marvs BKN27883
29 Mar@ CHI271472
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Naji Marshall is Over 14.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.8% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns on Thursday 9 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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