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The latest Bet Better model pick for Naji Marshall is Over 14.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 43%, for a model edge of +26.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:16AM UTC
NBA

Naji Marshall

Dallas Mavericks

+26.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 14.5 +132 (2.32)
+26.4% Edge
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 2:00AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Marshall (hip) has more competition for playing time after the Mavericks chose Morez Johnson with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
updated Jun 26, 6:59PM UTC · 19d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
69.5%
Implied Probability
43.1%
Model Edge
+26.4%
Predicted Value
17.5 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points69.5%—43.1%1.44+26.4%

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AI Analysis

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Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) Over 14.5 Points (+132)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Naji Marshall has been quietly carving out his role, especially on the road, and this matchup against the Phoenix Suns presents a prime opportunity for him to shine. Averaging 20.6 points in his last five away games, he's clearly become comfortable in hostile territory. Even more compelling is his recent history against the Mavericks-he's clocked in nearly 20 points per game over his last few encounters with them. Consider this: Marshall has hit the over on 14.5 points in four straight away games, showcasing his ability to step up when it matters most. With the Suns focusing on containing other offensive threats, it's likely he'll get the chances he needs to surpass this line. Given his expected stat value hovering around 17.46, betting on Marshall to exceed 14.5 points feels like a savvy move that aligns with his current form and matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
4.1avg · last 10
L54.6Szn3.0Home3.5Away2.6Best10
1+94%
3+54%
5+20%
7+6%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 4.1 · hi 8 · lo 1
2384185235

Naji Marshall is averaging 4.1 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.0, best 10). He clears 3+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
12.2avg · last 10
L512.6Szn13.2Home12.3Away14.1Best38
3+97%
8+70%
13+46%
18+32%
23+10%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 12.2 · hi 23 · lo 6
148622923711913

Naji Marshall is averaging 12.2 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 13.2, best 38). He clears 13+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
16.2avg · last 10
L516.0Szn17.9Home17.5Away18.3Best46
8+87%
13+68%
18+48%
23+32%
28+13%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 16.2 · hi 27 · lo 8
211682611279141317

Naji Marshall is averaging 16.2 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 17.9, best 46). He clears 18+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
20.3avg · last 10
L520.6Szn21.0Home21.0Away20.9Best53
11+87%
16+70%
21+44%
26+28%
31+14%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 20.3 · hi 35 · lo 12
23191630123514161622

Naji Marshall is averaging 20.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.0, best 53). He clears 21+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
8.1avg · last 10
L58.0Szn7.8Home8.7Away6.9Best19
2+100%
5+83%
8+48%
11+23%
14+7%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 8.1 · hi 12 · lo 3
9111083127579

Naji Marshall is averaging 8.1 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.8, best 19). He clears 8+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
0.9avg · last 10
L51.2Szn1.0Home1.1Away1.0Best4
1+66%
2+28%
3+8%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.9 · hi 2 · lo 0
1101011022

Naji Marshall is averaging 0.9 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.0, best 4). He clears 1+ in 66% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -122 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pts + Rebs 19.5 Over +100 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Naji Marshall is Over 14.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.4% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns on Thursday 9 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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