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The latest Bet Better model pick for Naji Marshall is Over 14.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 67%, versus the book's implied 45%, for a model edge of +21.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NBA

Naji Marshall

Dallas Mavericks

+21.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 14.5 +120 (2.20)
+21.1% Edge
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 2:00AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Marshall (hip) has more competition for playing time after the Mavericks chose Morez Johnson with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
updated Jun 26, 6:59PM UTC · 24d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
66.6%
Implied Probability
45.5%
Model Edge
+21.1%
Predicted Value
17.0 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points66.6%—45.5%1.50+21.1%

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AI Analysis

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Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) Over 14.5 Points (+120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Naji Marshall is primed for a breakout performance against the Phoenix Suns, and betting on him to score over 14.5 points feels like a smart play. In his last five games away, he's been lighting it up, averaging a solid 20.8 points. The Mavericks need every ounce of scoring power to keep pace with the Suns' high-octane offense, and Marshall's ability to step up in critical moments is evident-he's hit the over in 4 of his last 5 away games. Moreover, his recent form against the Suns suggests he can do even better; he's averaged nearly 20 points in his last matchups against them. With an expected stat value of 16.98 and a hit rate of 7 out of his last 11 games, it's clear that Marshall is not just a role player. This matchup could see him thrive, making the over a tantalizing possibility.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
4.1avg · last 10
L54.6Szn3.0Home3.5Away2.6Best10
1+94%
3+54%
5+20%
7+6%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 4.1 · hi 8 · lo 1
2384185235

Naji Marshall is averaging 4.1 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.0, best 10). He clears 3+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
12.2avg · last 10
L512.6Szn13.2Home12.3Away14.1Best38
3+97%
8+70%
13+46%
18+32%
23+10%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 12.2 · hi 23 · lo 6
148622923711913

Naji Marshall is averaging 12.2 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 13.2, best 38). He clears 13+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
16.2avg · last 10
L516.0Szn17.9Home17.5Away18.3Best46
8+87%
13+68%
18+48%
23+32%
28+13%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 16.2 · hi 27 · lo 8
211682611279141317

Naji Marshall is averaging 16.2 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 17.9, best 46). He clears 18+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
20.3avg · last 10
L520.6Szn21.0Home21.0Away20.9Best53
11+87%
16+70%
21+44%
26+28%
31+14%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 20.3 · hi 35 · lo 12
23191630123514161622

Naji Marshall is averaging 20.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.0, best 53). He clears 21+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
8.1avg · last 10
L58.0Szn7.8Home8.7Away6.9Best19
2+100%
5+83%
8+48%
11+23%
14+7%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 8.1 · hi 12 · lo 3
9111083127579

Naji Marshall is averaging 8.1 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.8, best 19). He clears 8+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
0.9avg · last 10
L51.2Szn1.0Home1.1Away1.0Best4
1+66%
2+28%
3+8%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.9 · hi 2 · lo 0
1101011022

Naji Marshall is averaging 0.9 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.0, best 4). He clears 1+ in 66% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pts + Rebs 19.5 Over -102 ✗ MISS
05 Apr 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -122 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Naji Marshall is Over 14.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.1% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns on Thursday 9 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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