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NBA

Klay Thompson

Miami Heat

Value call
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits

Klay Thompson (Miami Heat) has one live pick today: over 9.5 points that pays $158 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
49 in 100
Predicted
14.8 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 49.5% · before adjusting for past results 83.9% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap -13.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Thu 5 Nov, 10:00 PM ET
Klay Thompson
over 9.5 points
Points Over 9.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
Value call
LEANWins about 49 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.80 Odds-172
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Klay Thompson is Over 9.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 49 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 49%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Nov 13, 2:39PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nba pts + rebs unders: +$3,013 at $100 flat
Our call on Klay Thompson tonight: — members only · unlock tonight's call1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks
DAY-TO-DAY
Thompson (ankle) is listed as questionable for Friday's game against the Cavaliers.
updated Nov 12, 9:23PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points83.9%49.5%63.3%2.02+20.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat: Klay Thompson Over 9.5 Points (-172)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Klay Thompson has been looking sharp lately, showing he can score points when it matters. As the Golden State Warriors take on the Miami Heat, I think he can easily score over 9.5 points. The Heat give up a lot of three-point attempts, and Thompson is known for his shooting ability from beyond the arc. While the Heat have a good defense and can be tough, Thompson's history in these matchups makes this bet feel solid. The biggest risk is that both teams can be closely matched, which means every point counts. Still, Klay is due for a big game, so let's see if he can deliver!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Klay Thompson — 2024-25 season averages

Over 74 games in the 2024-25 season, Klay Thompson averaged 14.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 27.5 minutes per game, shooting 41.6% from the field and 39.4% from three-point range.

14.1
PPG
3.4
RPG
2.0
APG
0.7
SPG
0.4
BPG
27.5
MPG
41.6%
FG%
39.4%
3P%

Klay Thompson — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Klay Thompson has played 27.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

27.4
MPG (L5)
13.6
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Klay Thompson — points hit rate

Klay Thompson has scored over 20.5 points in 42% of 804 career games.

o11.584%
o12.580%
o15.566%
o20.542%
o25.521%

Klay Thompson — home vs away scoring

At home Klay Thompson averages 14.1 points per game; on the road, 14.2. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

14.1
PPG at home
14.2
PPG on the road

Klay Thompson — scoring by opponent

Klay Thompson scores most against the UTAH, averaging 23.1 points per game in that matchup.

23.1
UTAH
21.5
TOR
21.0
HOU
20.6
POR
20.4
MIL
20.1
SA

Klay Thompson — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Klay Thompson has averaged 13.2 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
18 Apr@ MEM321823
16 Apr@ SAC332352
11 Aprvs TOR19712
9 Aprvs LAL28621
5 Apr@ LAC251410
4 Apr@ LAC13200
2 Aprvs ATL291742
31 Marvs BKN281334
29 Mar@ CHI302011
27 Mar@ ORL261240
Quick answers:How many assists does Klay Thompson average?How many points does Klay Thompson average?How many rebounds does Klay Thompson average?How many three-pointers does Klay Thompson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors Points 9.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
04 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Clippers Pts + Rebs 11.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
21 Oct 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Miami Heat Rebounds 1.5 Under +185 ✓ HIT
05 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
24 Oct 26 Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets Rebounds — — — Pending
01 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks 3-Pointers — — — Pending

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About This Player

Klay Thompson (Miami Heat) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Klay Thompson is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Klay Thompson is Over 9.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.6% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors on Thursday 5 November at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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