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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Klay Thompson is Over 1.5 on 3-Pointers.
On the 3-Pointers market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +3.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 9:31PM UTC
NBA

Klay Thompson

Dallas Mavericks

+3.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Over 1.5 -556 (1.18) · $100→$118
+3.7% Edge
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Mon 2 Mar, 1:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.5%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+3.7%
Predicted Value
3.0 3-Pointers

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers88.5%84.7%1.13+3.7%

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AI Analysis

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Klay Thompson (Dallas Mavericks) Over 1.5 Threes Made (-556)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

On a Monday night rumble under the Dallas lights in March, the Mavericks lock horns with the Thunder, and one player, in particular, is primed to light up the court: Klay Thompson. Thompson's prowess beyond the arc is well-documented, but let's underline it. He's been a terror for the Thunder, knocking down an average of three three-pointers per game against them, and upping the ante to 4.5 when playing at home. And speaking of home, Thompson's overall average at his fortress in Dallas is a delicious three. Now, this isn't a flash in the pan trend; in his last 20 games, Thompson's hit over 1.5 threes 17 times. So, when the Mavericks' star guard steps onto the court, expect the unexpected. But one thing you can bank on? Thompson going over 1.5 threes.

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Pick History & Track Record

Klay Thompson — 2024-25 season averages

Over 74 games in the 2024-25 season, Klay Thompson averaged 14.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 27.5 minutes per game, shooting 41.6% from the field and 39.4% from three-point range.

14.1
PPG
3.4
RPG
2.0
APG
0.7
SPG
0.4
BPG
27.5
MPG
41.6%
FG%
39.4%
3P%

Klay Thompson — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Klay Thompson has played 27.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

27.4
MPG (L5)
13.6
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Klay Thompson — points hit rate

Klay Thompson has scored over 20.5 points in 42% of 804 career games.

o11.584%
o12.580%
o15.566%
o20.542%
o25.521%

Klay Thompson — home vs away scoring

At home Klay Thompson averages 14.1 points per game; on the road, 14.2. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

14.1
PPG at home
14.2
PPG on the road

Klay Thompson — scoring by opponent

Klay Thompson scores most against the UTAH, averaging 23.1 points per game in that matchup.

23.1
UTAH
21.5
TOR
21.0
HOU
20.6
POR
20.4
MIL
20.1
SA

Klay Thompson — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Klay Thompson has averaged 13.2 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
18 Apr@ MEM321823
16 Apr@ SAC332352
11 Aprvs TOR19712
9 Aprvs LAL28621
5 Apr@ LAC251410
4 Apr@ LAC13200
2 Aprvs ATL291742
31 Marvs BKN281334
29 Mar@ CHI302011
27 Mar@ ORL261240
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks 3-Pointers Pending
22 Feb 26 Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers Points Pending

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About This Player

Klay Thompson (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Klay Thompson is Over 1.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.7% on this pick. Their next game is Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks on Monday 2 March at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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