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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alperen Sengun is Under 8.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 47%, for a model edge of +12.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:00AM UTC
NBA

Alperen Sengun

Houston Rockets

+12.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 8.5 +114 (2.14) · $100→$214
+12.9% Edge
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
59.6%
Implied Probability
46.7%
Model Edge
+12.9%
Predicted Value
7.9 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds59.6%—46.7%1.68+12.9%

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AI Analysis

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Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets) Under 8.5 Rebounds (+114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Rockets head into Los Angeles to face the Lakers, Alperen Sengun's rebounding numbers tell an intriguing story. While he's been a solid contributor on the glass, his recent performances suggest a dip in production that's hard to ignore. Averaging 8.4 rebounds over his last five outings, Sengun's numbers are even less reassuring when factoring in the pressure of an away game, where he's posted 9.4 rebounds on average. However, against this Lakers squad, he's historically managed just 10.8 boards in away matchups, a figure that's not quite enough to convince me he'll clear the 8.5 threshold tonight. With a hit rate of only 60% over his last ten and a dwindling overall output, the odds of him falling under 8.5 rebounds look favorable. It's a smart play to lean into the under as he faces a Lakers team that can be tough on interior players.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
4.9avg · last 10
L55.8Szn4.8Home4.5Away5.2Best14
1+96%
3+84%
5+53%
7+20%
9+9%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.9 · hi 9 · lo 1
4441745965

Alperen Sengun is averaging 4.9 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.8, best 14). He clears 5+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks + Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
2.1avg · last 10
L52.2Szn1.9Home2.0Away1.8Best6
1+84%
2+52%
3+29%
4+16%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.1 · hi 4 · lo 0
3113202432

Alperen Sengun is averaging 2.1 blocks + steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.9, best 6). He clears 2+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
0.4avg · last 10
L50.6Szn0.8Home0.9Away0.6Best5
1+52%
2+15%
3+6%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.4 · hi 2 · lo 0
0010000201

Alperen Sengun is averaging 0.4 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.8, best 5). He clears 1+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Double-Double2024-25 seasonNo line posted
59%DD rate
59%double-double rate · 2024-25
L1060%Home57%Away62%
Game log · double-double6 / 10 DD

Alperen Sengun posted a double-double in 59% of 2024-25 games (6 of his last 10).

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
21.0avg · last 10
L520.6Szn18.8Home18.2Away19.5Best45
9+94%
14+81%
19+47%
24+26%
29+9%
Game log vs O 18.5avg 21 · hi 31 · lo 14
31191426171531152121

Alperen Sengun is averaging 21.0 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 18.8, best 45). He clears 19+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
25.9avg · last 10
L526.4Szn23.6Home22.8Away24.7Best48
14+93%
19+75%
24+53%
29+29%
34+8%
Game log vs O 23.5avg 25.9 · hi 36 · lo 18
35231827241936242726

Alperen Sengun is averaging 25.9 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 23.6, best 48). He clears 24+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
31.4avg · last 10
L532.2Szn29.1Home28.4Away29.9Best61
19+94%
24+79%
29+53%
34+33%
39+14%
Game log vs O 28.5avg 31.4 · hi 41 · lo 19
33331935332641243535

Alperen Sengun is averaging 31.4 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 29.1, best 61). He clears 29+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
36.3avg · last 10
L538.0Szn33.9Home32.9Away35.1Best64
24+92%
29+76%
34+51%
39+34%
44+14%
Game log vs O 33.5avg 36.3 · hi 46 · lo 23
37372336403046334140

Alperen Sengun is averaging 36.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 33.9, best 64). He clears 34+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
10.4avg · last 10
L511.6Szn10.2Home10.1Away10.4Best21
6+88%
8+81%
10+61%
12+34%
14+22%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 10.4 · hi 16 · lo 2
2145916111091414

Alperen Sengun is averaging 10.4 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.2, best 21). He clears 10+ in 61% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
15.3avg · last 10
L517.4Szn15.0Home14.7Away15.5Best33
9+94%
12+80%
15+55%
18+31%
21+13%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 15.3 · hi 23 · lo 6
618910231515182019

Alperen Sengun is averaging 15.3 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.0, best 33). He clears 15+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.7avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.1Home1.1Away1.2Best5
1+60%
2+36%
3+13%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.7 · hi 3 · lo 0
3103202231

Alperen Sengun is averaging 1.7 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.1, best 5). He clears 1+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Triple-Double2024-25 seasonNo line posted
4.7%triple-double rate · 2024-25

Alperen Sengun recorded a triple-double in 4.7% of 2024-25 games (8 in the last 295 on record).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds 8.5 Under +114 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alperen Sengun is Under 8.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.9% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday 19 April at Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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