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Aaron Gordon

Denver Nuggets

Value call

Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) has one live pick today: over 12.5 points that pays $195 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
15.9 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.3% · the book's price implies 51.3% · gap +21.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Mon 20 Apr, 10:30 PM ET
Aaron Gordon
over 12.5 points
Points Over 12.5 -105 (1.95) · $100→$195
Value call
HIGHWins about 72 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.50 Odds-105
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Gordon is Over 12.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 51%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 6:50AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points72.3%—51.3%1.38+21.0%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) Over 12.5 Points (-105)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, all eyes should be on Aaron Gordon to eclipse the 12.5 points mark. He's found his groove lately, averaging 14.6 points over his last five home games, showcasing a knack for stepping up in front of the Denver crowd. What's particularly telling is his performance against the Timberwolves; he's lit them up for an average of 21.2 points in their last five matchups, a testament to his ability to exploit their defensive lapses. Considering he's hit the over in four of his last six games overall and three of four at home, it's clear Gordon is in a favorable spot. With an expected stat value of 15.93, this bet leans strongly in our favor. As the Nuggets look to assert their dominance, expect Gordon to be a pivotal player in their offensive strategy.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Aaron Gordon — 2024-25 season averages

Over 63 games in the 2024-25 season, Aaron Gordon averaged 15.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 30.3 minutes per game, shooting 52.2% from the field and 42.6% from three-point range.

15.3
PPG
5.3
RPG
3.1
APG
0.5
SPG
0.3
BPG
30.3
MPG
52.2%
FG%
42.6%
3P%

Aaron Gordon — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Aaron Gordon has played 37.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.4
MPG (L5)
16.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Aaron Gordon — points hit rate

Aaron Gordon has scored over 12.5 points in 48% of 568 career games.

o11.553%
o12.548%
o15.533%
o20.512%

Aaron Gordon — home vs away scoring

At home Aaron Gordon averages 15.4 points per game; on the road, 15.2. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

15.4
PPG at home
15.2
PPG on the road

Aaron Gordon — scoring by opponent

Aaron Gordon scores most against the BKN, averaging 16.7 points per game in that matchup.

16.7
BKN
16.2
ATL
16.0
LAC
15.8
IND
15.6
SAC
15.5
MIA

Aaron Gordon — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Gordon has averaged 17.5 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ OKC371353
11 Mayvs OKC3815166
9 Mayvs OKC462285
7 May@ OKC271051
5 May@ OKC3922141
3 Mayvs LAC362245
1 May@ LAC411951
29 Aprvs LAC372342
26 Apr@ LAC431465
24 Apr@ LAC321570
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points 12.5 Over -105 ✗ MISS
20 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs 17.5 Over -130 ✗ MISS
04 Apr 26 San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -118 ✓ HIT
04 Apr 26 San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
14 Mar 26 Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Gordon is Over 12.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.0% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Monday 20 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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