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Aaron Gordon

Denver Nuggets

Value call

Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) has one live pick today: under 13.5 points that pays $280 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
50 in 100
Predicted
13.2 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 50.3% · before adjusting for past results 58.1% · the book's price implies 35.7% · gap +14.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA · Indoor
Wed 28 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Aaron Gordon
under 13.5 points
Points Under 13.5 +180 (2.80) · $100→$280
Value call
LEANWins about 50 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$28.00 Odds+180
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Gordon is Under 13.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 50 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 50%, the price says 36%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 10:29AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points58.1%50.3%35.7%1.99+22.3%

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AI Analysis

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New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets: Aaron Gordon Under 13.5 Points (+180)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Aaron Gordon has been a bit quiet lately, and the Denver Nuggets are known for letting opponents shoot a lot of threes. Since 2018, they allow teams to attempt a high number of three-pointers each game. This could mean fewer chances for Gordon to score as he usually thrives in a more balanced offense. Plus, the matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans adds another layer of challenge. The game could be close, and Gordon might not get the shots he needs to hit over 13.5 points. It's possible he'll have a tough time finding his rhythm, especially since this game could turn into a defensive battle. So, betting on him to score under 13.5 points seems like a solid pick.

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Pick History & Track Record

Aaron Gordon — 2024-25 season averages

Over 63 games in the 2024-25 season, Aaron Gordon averaged 15.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 30.3 minutes per game, shooting 52.2% from the field and 42.6% from three-point range.

15.3
PPG
5.3
RPG
3.1
APG
0.5
SPG
0.3
BPG
30.3
MPG
52.2%
FG%
42.6%
3P%

Aaron Gordon — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Aaron Gordon has played 37.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.4
MPG (L5)
16.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Aaron Gordon — points hit rate

Aaron Gordon has scored over 12.5 points in 48% of 568 career games.

o11.553%
o12.548%
o15.533%
o20.512%

Aaron Gordon — home vs away scoring

At home Aaron Gordon averages 15.4 points per game; on the road, 15.2. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

15.4
PPG at home
15.2
PPG on the road

Aaron Gordon — scoring by opponent

Aaron Gordon scores most against the BKN, averaging 16.7 points per game in that matchup.

16.7
BKN
16.2
ATL
16.0
LAC
15.8
IND
15.6
SAC
15.5
MIA

Aaron Gordon — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Gordon has averaged 17.5 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ OKC371353
11 Mayvs OKC3815166
9 Mayvs OKC462285
7 May@ OKC271051
5 May@ OKC3922141
3 Mayvs LAC362245
1 May@ LAC411951
29 Aprvs LAC372342
26 Apr@ LAC431465
24 Apr@ LAC321570
Quick answers:How many assists does Aaron Gordon average?How many points does Aaron Gordon average?How many rebounds does Aaron Gordon average?How many three-pointers does Aaron Gordon average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Points 13.5 Under +180 ✗ MISS
28 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Pts + Asts 17.5 Under +135 ✗ MISS
28 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Pts + Rebs 20.5 Under +130 ✗ MISS
26 Oct 26 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets Points — — — Pending
24 Oct 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
24 Oct 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets Points — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Gordon is Under 13.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.3% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday 28 October at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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