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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Gordon is Over 12.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +21.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NBA

Aaron Gordon

Denver Nuggets

+21.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 12.5 -105 (1.95)
+21.0% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Gordon is out for Thursday's Game 6 against the Timberwolves, Anthony Slater of ESPN.com reports.
updated Jun 16, 2:32PM UTC · 34d old
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Model Probability
72.3%
Implied Probability
51.3%
Model Edge
+21.0%
Predicted Value
15.9 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points72.3%51.3%1.38+21.0%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) Over 12.5 Points (-105)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, all eyes should be on Aaron Gordon to eclipse the 12.5 points mark. He's found his groove lately, averaging 14.6 points over his last five home games, showcasing a knack for stepping up in front of the Denver crowd. What's particularly telling is his performance against the Timberwolves; he's lit them up for an average of 21.2 points in their last five matchups, a testament to his ability to exploit their defensive lapses. Considering he's hit the over in four of his last six games overall and three of four at home, it's clear Gordon is in a favorable spot. With an expected stat value of 15.93, this bet leans strongly in our favor. As the Nuggets look to assert their dominance, expect Gordon to be a pivotal player in their offensive strategy.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
17.5avg · last 10
L516.4Szn15.3Home15.4Away15.2Best38
5+95%
10+73%
15+49%
20+27%
25+13%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 17.5 · hi 23 · lo 10
15142319222210221513

Aaron Gordon is averaging 17.5 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.3, best 38). He clears 15+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
24.9avg · last 10
L526.0Szn20.6Home20.5Away20.6Best50
11+83%
16+65%
21+48%
26+29%
31+14%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 24.9 · hi 36 · lo 15
22202724263615303118

Aaron Gordon is averaging 24.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 20.6, best 50). He clears 21+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
7.4avg · last 10
L59.6Szn5.3Home5.1Away5.4Best17
1+97%
3+81%
5+59%
7+29%
9+13%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 7.4 · hi 16 · lo 4
764541458165

Aaron Gordon is averaging 7.4 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.3, best 17). He clears 5+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points 12.5 Over -105 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs 17.5 Over -130 ✗ MISS
04 Apr 26 San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
04 Apr 26 San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Gordon is Over 12.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.0% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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