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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Gordon is Over 17.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +16.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:13AM UTC
NBA

Aaron Gordon

Denver Nuggets

+16.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 17.5 -130 (1.77) · $100→$177
+16.7% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Gordon is out for Thursday's Game 6 against the Timberwolves, Anthony Slater of ESPN.com reports.
updated Jun 16, 2:32PM UTC · 55d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.2%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+16.7%
Predicted Value
21.8 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs73.2%56.5%1.37+16.7%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets prepare to host the Minnesota Timberwolves, all eyes should be on Aaron Gordon, especially for the points and rebounds prop set at 17.5. Gordon has found his rhythm, averaging 13.4 points and 5.2 rebounds in his last five games. But here's where it gets interesting: when facing the Timberwolves, he lights up, dropping an impressive 21.2 points per game against them. Even more telling, at home, his numbers edge a bit higher, with 16.2 points and 5.8 rebounds against Minnesota.Gordon's recent form at home has been promising, hitting the over in three of his last four games. With an expected stat value hovering around 21.78, the stars seem to align for him to surpass that 17.5 mark. Given his strong history and the Nuggets' need for a home win, this is a bet worth making.

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Pick History & Track Record

Aaron Gordon — 2024-25 season averages

Over 63 games in the 2024-25 season, Aaron Gordon averaged 15.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 30.3 minutes per game, shooting 52.2% from the field and 42.6% from three-point range.

15.3
PPG
5.3
RPG
3.1
APG
0.5
SPG
0.3
BPG
30.3
MPG
52.2%
FG%
42.6%
3P%

Aaron Gordon — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Aaron Gordon has played 37.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.4
MPG (L5)
16.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Aaron Gordon — points hit rate

Aaron Gordon has scored over 12.5 points in 48% of 568 career games.

o11.553%
o12.548%
o15.533%
o20.512%

Aaron Gordon — home vs away scoring

At home Aaron Gordon averages 15.4 points per game; on the road, 15.2. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

15.4
PPG at home
15.2
PPG on the road

Aaron Gordon — scoring by opponent

Aaron Gordon scores most against the BKN, averaging 16.7 points per game in that matchup.

16.7
BKN
16.2
ATL
16.0
LAC
15.8
IND
15.6
SAC
15.5
MIA

Aaron Gordon — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Gordon has averaged 17.5 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ OKC371353
11 Mayvs OKC3815166
9 Mayvs OKC462285
7 May@ OKC271051
5 May@ OKC3922141
3 Mayvs LAC362245
1 May@ LAC411951
29 Aprvs LAC372342
26 Apr@ LAC431465
24 Apr@ LAC321570
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Gordon is Over 17.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.7% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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