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The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Gafford is Under 12.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +11.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NBA

Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks

+11.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 12.5 -667 (1.15)
+11.3% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Tue 24 Mar, 1:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
98.3%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+11.3%
Predicted Value
7.4 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds98.3%—87.0%1.02+11.3%

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AI Analysis

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Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks) Under 12.5 Rebounds (-667)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Dallas Mavericks gear up to take on the Golden State Warriors, Daniel Gafford's rebounding prowess faces a reality check. Sure, he's been a solid contributor, averaging 11.2 rebounds over his last five games, but let's dig deeper. At home, his average dips to 8.6, revealing a pattern that's hard to ignore. Gafford has faced the Warriors before, and his numbers against them at home reflect a similar trend, sitting around 8.4 rebounds. With an impressive hit rate of 19 out of the last 20 games falling under this line at home, the pressure of the matchup may leave him shy of that 12.5 mark. With the Mavericks in a tightly contested environment and Gafford likely to contend against strong rebounding foes, the under looks like the smart play here. Expecting him to land around 7 or 8 rebounds feels much more realistic.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.2avg · last 10
L51.4Szn1.4Home1.2Away1.5Best5
1+69%
3+19%
5+2%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.2 · hi 3 · lo 0
1220031111

Daniel Gafford is averaging 1.2 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.4, best 5). He clears 1+ in 69% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.5avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.8Home1.6Away1.9Best8
1+76%
2+49%
3+25%
4+12%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.5 · hi 6 · lo 0
6001021221

Daniel Gafford is averaging 1.5 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.8, best 8). He clears 2+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
15.4avg · last 10
L516.6Szn18.8Home17.5Away20.0Best46
9+88%
14+78%
19+49%
24+25%
29+8%
Game log vs O 18.5avg 15.4 · hi 27 · lo 7
14724179161927138

Daniel Gafford is averaging 15.4 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 18.8, best 46). He clears 19+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
16.6avg · last 10
L518.0Szn20.2Home18.7Away21.6Best49
10+86%
15+76%
20+51%
25+29%
30+10%
Game log vs O 19.5avg 16.6 · hi 28 · lo 9
15926179192028149

Daniel Gafford is averaging 16.6 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 20.2, best 49). He clears 20+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
5.7avg · last 10
L55.4Szn6.7Home6.1Away7.2Best17
3+95%
5+73%
7+46%
9+22%
11+14%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 5.7 · hi 9 · lo 3
9376567743

Daniel Gafford is averaging 5.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.7, best 17). He clears 7+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Mar 26 Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Rebounds 12.5 Under -667 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Rebounds 8.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT
04 Mar 26 Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs 13.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks Blocks — — — Pending
22 Feb 26 Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers Blocks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Gafford is Under 12.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday 24 March at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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