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Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks

+10.6% Edge
Latest Pick
Rebounds Under 12.5 -714 (1.14)
+10.6% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tue 24 Mar, 1:30AM
Model Probability
98.3%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+10.6%
Predicted Value
7.4 Rebounds

AI Analysis

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Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks) Under 12.5 Rebounds (-714)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Dallas Mavericks welcome the Golden State Warriors, all eyes will be on Daniel Gafford, but the smart play here is to bet on his rebounds falling under 12.5. While Gafford has shown moments of brilliance, averaging 11.2 boards over his last five games, his home performances paint a different picture. At home, he's only managed 8.6 rebounds on average, and against the Warriors, that number drops slightly to 8.4. With Gafford hitting the under in 19 of his last 20 home games, it's clear that the Mavericks' frontcourt dynamics often limit his opportunities on the glass. Facing a Warriors team that emphasizes pace rather than paint presence, Gafford might find fewer chances to grab those boards. Given these trends, betting the under feels like a calculated move, especially with an expected stat value around 7.36.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (8 picks) 62.5% (5/8)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Mar 26 Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Rebounds 12.5 Under -714 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Rebounds 8.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT
19 Mar 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks Assists 0.5 Over -196 ✗ MISS
10 Mar 26 Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
04 Mar 26 Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
04 Mar 26 Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets Blocks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 8 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 62.5% (5/8). The latest model pick for Daniel Gafford is Under 12.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.6% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday 24 March at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.