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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Gafford is Under 8.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 68%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +13.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:56AM UTC
NBA

Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks

+13.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 8.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+13.4% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Tue 24 Mar, 1:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
68.0%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+13.4%
Predicted Value
7.4 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds68.0%54.6%1.47+13.4%

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AI Analysis

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Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks) Under 8.5 Rebounds (-120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When the Dallas Mavericks host the Golden State Warriors, all eyes will be on Daniel Gafford, but betting the under on his rebounds at 8.5 seems intriguing. While Gafford has shown flashes of brilliance with an average of 11.2 rebounds over the last five games, his home performances tell a different story. In fact, he's managed just 8.6 boards per game at home recently, and against the Warriors, he's only pulled down 8.4 rebounds on average in their last encounters.Moreover, with a hit rate of just 66.7% in his last 15 games and a staggering 80% at home, Gafford's numbers suggest he's due for a regression. The Warriors can stretch the floor, limiting Gafford's opportunities to crash the boards effectively. Given these factors, targeting the under on Gafford's rebounds feels like a smart play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.2avg · last 10
L51.4Szn1.4Home1.2Away1.5Best5
1+69%
3+19%
5+2%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.2 · hi 3 · lo 0
1220031111

Daniel Gafford is averaging 1.2 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.4, best 5). He clears 1+ in 69% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.5avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.8Home1.6Away1.9Best8
1+76%
2+49%
3+25%
4+12%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.5 · hi 6 · lo 0
6001021221

Daniel Gafford is averaging 1.5 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.8, best 8). He clears 2+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
15.4avg · last 10
L516.6Szn18.8Home17.5Away20.0Best46
9+88%
14+78%
19+49%
24+25%
29+8%
Game log vs O 18.5avg 15.4 · hi 27 · lo 7
14724179161927138

Daniel Gafford is averaging 15.4 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 18.8, best 46). He clears 19+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
16.6avg · last 10
L518.0Szn20.2Home18.7Away21.6Best49
10+86%
15+76%
20+51%
25+29%
30+10%
Game log vs O 19.5avg 16.6 · hi 28 · lo 9
15926179192028149

Daniel Gafford is averaging 16.6 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 20.2, best 49). He clears 20+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
5.7avg · last 10
L55.4Szn6.7Home6.1Away7.2Best17
3+95%
5+73%
7+46%
9+22%
11+14%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 5.7 · hi 9 · lo 3
9376567743

Daniel Gafford is averaging 5.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.7, best 17). He clears 7+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Mar 26 Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs 13.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks Blocks 1.5 Under -175 ✗ MISS
22 Feb 26 Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers Blocks 0.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Gafford is Under 8.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.4% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday 24 March at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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