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DeMar DeRozan

Sacramento Kings

Value call

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) has one live pick today: over 14.5 points that pays $173 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
19.2 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 79.2% · the book's price implies 57.8% · gap +21.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Tue 7 Apr, 10:00 PM ET
DeMar DeRozan
over 14.5 points
Points Over 14.5 -137 (1.73) · $100→$173
Value call
HIGHWins about 79 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$17.30 Odds-137
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 14.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 79%, the price says 58%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 10:05AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points79.2%—57.8%1.26+21.4%

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AI Analysis

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DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) Over 14.5 Points (-137)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Kings gear up to face the Warriors, all eyes should be on DeMar DeRozan, who's primed for a standout performance. Averaging over 21 points in his last five outings, DeRozan has been consistently productive, and his away game stats shine even brighter at 23.4 points. Facing a Warriors squad that struggles defensively against versatile scorers, DeRozan's ability to find the basket is bolstered by his impressive history against this opponent-he's dropped an average of 27.6 points against them recently.With a hit rate of 3 out of 3 in his last away games, and an expected output of 19.22 points, the Over 14.5 feels like a solid play. Given that he's been a key offensive driver, it's hard to see him falling short of this mark. Expect DeRozan to rise to the occasion and lead the charge for Sacramento.

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Pick History & Track Record

DeMar DeRozan — 2024-25 season averages

Over 78 games in the 2024-25 season, DeMar DeRozan averaged 22.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists in 36.0 minutes per game, shooting 47.7% from the field and 33.0% from three-point range.

22.3
PPG
3.9
RPG
4.4
APG
0.8
SPG
0.4
BPG
36.0
MPG
47.7%
FG%
33.0%
3P%

DeMar DeRozan — recent role

Across his last 5 games, DeMar DeRozan has played 37.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.6
MPG (L5)
23.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

DeMar DeRozan — points hit rate

DeMar DeRozan has scored over 20.5 points in 48% of 1073 career games.

o11.583%
o12.580%
o15.569%
o20.548%
o25.527%
o30.512%

DeMar DeRozan — home vs away scoring

At home DeMar DeRozan averages 20.0 points per game; on the road, 24.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.0
PPG at home
24.7
PPG on the road

DeMar DeRozan — scoring by opponent

DeMar DeRozan scores most against the MIN, averaging 28.4 points per game in that matchup.

28.4
MIN
26.6
ATL
25.5
MIL
25.5
ORL
25.4
SA
25.3
LAL

DeMar DeRozan — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, DeMar DeRozan has averaged 24.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
16 Aprvs DAL433372
13 Aprvs PHX28805
11 Aprvs LAC401638
9 Aprvs DEN402244
7 Apr@ DET373742
6 Apr@ CLE402847
4 Apr@ CHA272243
2 Apr@ WSH402978
31 Mar@ IND423138
29 Mar@ ORL292141
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets Assists 5.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -109 ✗ MISS
19 Mar 26 Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings Rebs + Asts 6.5 Over -147 ✓ HIT
15 Mar 26 Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
15 Mar 26 Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings Rebounds — — — Pending
15 Mar 26 Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings Assists — — — Pending

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About This Player

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 14.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.4% on this pick. Their next game is Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors on Tuesday 7 April at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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