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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 19.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 69%, implied 52%, edge +17.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 8:24PM UTC
NBA

DeMar DeRozan

Sacramento Kings

+17.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 19.5 -108 (1.93) · $100→$193
+17.5% Edge
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
69 in 100
Predicted
23.0 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 69.3% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +17.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs69.3%51.8%1.44+17.5%

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AI Analysis

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DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When the Sacramento Kings hit the road to face the Golden State Warriors, all eyes should be on DeMar DeRozan. With an impressive scoring average of 23.4 points per game away from home in his last five outings, he's proven to be a consistent threat. DeRozan's ability to elevate his game against the Warriors is noteworthy; he's averaged 27.6 points against them in recent matchups, showcasing his knack for stepping up when it matters. Moreover, he's not just a scorer; DeRozan adds value on the boards, averaging 3 rebounds in away games, which is a solid boost towards that 19.5 mark. With a hit rate of 3 out of his last 5 games for this prop, and even better, a perfect 3 for 3 away, the stars align for him to surpass that line. Expect him to deliver another standout performance in this pivotal matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

DeMar DeRozan — 2024-25 season averages

Over 78 games in the 2024-25 season, DeMar DeRozan averaged 22.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists in 36.0 minutes per game, shooting 47.7% from the field and 33.0% from three-point range.

22.3
PPG
3.9
RPG
4.4
APG
0.8
SPG
0.4
BPG
36.0
MPG
47.7%
FG%
33.0%
3P%

DeMar DeRozan — recent role

Across his last 5 games, DeMar DeRozan has played 37.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.6
MPG (L5)
23.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

DeMar DeRozan — points hit rate

DeMar DeRozan has scored over 20.5 points in 48% of 1073 career games.

o11.583%
o12.580%
o15.569%
o20.548%
o25.527%
o30.512%

DeMar DeRozan — home vs away scoring

At home DeMar DeRozan averages 20.0 points per game; on the road, 24.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.0
PPG at home
24.7
PPG on the road

DeMar DeRozan — scoring by opponent

DeMar DeRozan scores most against the MIN, averaging 28.4 points per game in that matchup.

28.4
MIN
26.6
ATL
25.5
MIL
25.5
ORL
25.4
SA
25.3
LAL

DeMar DeRozan — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, DeMar DeRozan has averaged 24.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
16 Aprvs DAL433372
13 Aprvs PHX28805
11 Aprvs LAC401638
9 Aprvs DEN402244
7 Apr@ DET373742
6 Apr@ CLE402847
4 Apr@ CHA272243
2 Apr@ WSH402978
31 Mar@ IND423138
29 Mar@ ORL292141
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 19.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.5% on this pick. Their next game is Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors on Wednesday 8 April at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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