Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
NBA

DeMar DeRozan

Denver Nuggets

Value call

DeMar DeRozan (Denver Nuggets) has one live pick today: under 0.5 threes that pays $204 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
0.5 threes
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 58.6% · before adjusting for past results 63.4% · the book's price implies 49.0% · gap +9.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Sat 24 Oct, 9:00 PM ET
DeMar DeRozan
under 0.5 threes
3-Pointers Under 0.5 +104 (2.04) · $100→$204
Value call
LEANWins about 59 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$20.40 Odds+104
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Under 0.5 on 3-Pointers.
On 3-Pointers, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 49%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Nov 1, 1:14PM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers63.4%58.6%49.0%1.71+14.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans: DeMar DeRozan Under 0.5 3-Pointers (+104)

Odds correct at time of publishing

At Ball Arena, the Denver Nuggets have shown a strong ability to limit three-point shots from their opponents. They allow around 34.8 attempts from beyond the arc each game, which is pretty close to the league average. This means DeMar DeRozan might struggle to get a shot off from three-point range against their solid defense. Also, the Nuggets are tough on the boards, giving up only 42.1 rebounds per game, which could limit second-chance opportunities for DeRozan to take those long shots. The most concrete risk here is that DeRozan could find himself in a tight spot, making it hard to get a clean look from deep. Overall, betting that he scores less than half a three-pointer seems to have a good chance of hitting.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

DeMar DeRozan — 2024-25 season averages

Over 78 games in the 2024-25 season, DeMar DeRozan averaged 22.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists in 36.0 minutes per game, shooting 47.7% from the field and 33.0% from three-point range.

22.3
PPG
3.9
RPG
4.4
APG
0.8
SPG
0.4
BPG
36.0
MPG
47.7%
FG%
33.0%
3P%

DeMar DeRozan — recent role

Across his last 5 games, DeMar DeRozan has played 37.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.6
MPG (L5)
23.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

DeMar DeRozan — points hit rate

DeMar DeRozan has scored over 20.5 points in 48% of 1073 career games.

o11.583%
o12.580%
o15.569%
o20.548%
o25.527%
o30.512%

DeMar DeRozan — home vs away scoring

At home DeMar DeRozan averages 20.0 points per game; on the road, 24.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.0
PPG at home
24.7
PPG on the road

DeMar DeRozan — scoring by opponent

DeMar DeRozan scores most against the MIN, averaging 28.4 points per game in that matchup.

28.4
MIN
26.6
ATL
25.5
MIL
25.5
ORL
25.4
SA
25.3
LAL

DeMar DeRozan — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, DeMar DeRozan has averaged 24.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
16 Aprvs DAL433372
13 Aprvs PHX28805
11 Aprvs LAC401638
9 Aprvs DEN402244
7 Apr@ DET373742
6 Apr@ CLE402847
4 Apr@ CHA272243
2 Apr@ WSH402978
31 Mar@ IND423138
29 Mar@ ORL292141
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Oct 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets 3-Pointers 0.5 Under +104 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Points 9.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets Assists 5.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
19 Mar 26 Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
15 Mar 26 Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings Rebs + Asts — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

DeMar DeRozan (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Under 0.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.4% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets on Saturday 24 October at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.