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The latest Bet Better model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 18.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +19.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NBA

DeMar DeRozan

Sacramento Kings

+19.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 18.5 -120 (1.83)
+19.5% Edge
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.2%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+19.5%
Predicted Value
23.0 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs74.2%—54.6%1.35+19.5%

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AI Analysis

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DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Kings head into a pivotal matchup against the Warriors, all eyes should be on DeMar DeRozan to go Over 18.5 points and rebounds. DeRozan has been a scoring machine lately, averaging 21.2 points and 2.6 rebounds over his last five games, with a striking 23.4 points per game on the road. When facing the Warriors, he has historically thrived, dropping an impressive 27.6 points on average in their recent encounters. Moreover, DeRozan's ability to rack up rebounds hasn't gone unnoticed, especially against Golden State, where he pulls down about 4.2 boards per game away from home. His recent form is formidable, hitting this mark in three of his last five games, and he's a perfect 3-for-3 on the road in that stretch. With an expected stat value nudging nearly 23, it's hard to see him not eclipsing this threshold. Trust DeRozan

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
4.8avg · last 10
L54.2Szn4.4Home4.5Away4.4Best14
2+90%
4+59%
6+32%
8+14%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 4.8 · hi 8 · lo 1
1883724852

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 4.8 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.4, best 14). He clears 4+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
24.7avg · last 10
L523.2Szn22.3Home20.0Away24.7Best50
12+91%
17+82%
22+55%
27+29%
32+13%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 24.7 · hi 37 · lo 8
2131292228372216833

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24.7 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.3, best 50). He clears 22+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
29.5avg · last 10
L527.4Szn26.8Home24.4Away29.1Best56
17+87%
22+74%
27+51%
32+28%
37+14%
Game log vs O 26.5avg 29.5 · hi 39 · lo 13
22393725353926241335

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 29.5 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.8, best 56). He clears 27+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
28.7avg · last 10
L526.8Szn26.3Home23.9Away28.6Best63
16+91%
21+79%
26+51%
31+31%
36+15%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 28.7 · hi 41 · lo 8
2534362632412619840

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 28.7 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.3, best 63). He clears 26+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
4.0avg · last 10
L53.6Szn3.9Home3.9Away3.9Best15
2+87%
4+55%
6+24%
8+5%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 4 · hi 7 · lo 0
4374444307

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 4.0 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.9, best 15). He clears 4+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
8.8avg · last 10
L57.8Szn8.3Home8.4Away8.3Best25
2+97%
5+88%
8+54%
11+26%
14+8%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 8.8 · hi 15 · lo 5
51115711681159

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 8.8 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.3, best 25). He clears 8+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Apr 26 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -112 ✗ MISS
24 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets Assists 5.5 Under -127 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 18.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors on Wednesday 8 April at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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