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The latest Bet Better model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 19.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +17.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 8:34AM UTC
NBA

DeMar DeRozan

Sacramento Kings

+17.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 19.5 -108 (1.93)
+17.5% Edge
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
69.3%
Implied Probability
51.8%
Model Edge
+17.5%
Predicted Value
23.0 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs69.3%—51.8%1.44+17.5%

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AI Analysis

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DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When the Sacramento Kings hit the road to face the Golden State Warriors, all eyes should be on DeMar DeRozan. With an impressive scoring average of 23.4 points per game away from home in his last five outings, he's proven to be a consistent threat. DeRozan's ability to elevate his game against the Warriors is noteworthy; he's averaged 27.6 points against them in recent matchups, showcasing his knack for stepping up when it matters. Moreover, he's not just a scorer; DeRozan adds value on the boards, averaging 3 rebounds in away games, which is a solid boost towards that 19.5 mark. With a hit rate of 3 out of his last 5 games for this prop, and even better, a perfect 3 for 3 away, the stars align for him to surpass that line. Expect him to deliver another standout performance in this pivotal matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
4.8avg · last 10
L54.2Szn4.4Home4.5Away4.4Best14
2+90%
4+59%
6+32%
8+14%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 4.8 · hi 8 · lo 1
1883724852

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 4.8 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.4, best 14). He clears 4+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
24.7avg · last 10
L523.2Szn22.3Home20.0Away24.7Best50
12+91%
17+82%
22+55%
27+29%
32+13%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 24.7 · hi 37 · lo 8
2131292228372216833

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24.7 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.3, best 50). He clears 22+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
29.5avg · last 10
L527.4Szn26.8Home24.4Away29.1Best56
17+87%
22+74%
27+51%
32+28%
37+14%
Game log vs O 26.5avg 29.5 · hi 39 · lo 13
22393725353926241335

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 29.5 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.8, best 56). He clears 27+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
28.7avg · last 10
L526.8Szn26.3Home23.9Away28.6Best63
16+91%
21+79%
26+51%
31+31%
36+15%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 28.7 · hi 41 · lo 8
2534362632412619840

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 28.7 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.3, best 63). He clears 26+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
4.0avg · last 10
L53.6Szn3.9Home3.9Away3.9Best15
2+87%
4+55%
6+24%
8+5%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 4 · hi 7 · lo 0
4374444307

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 4.0 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.9, best 15). He clears 4+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
8.8avg · last 10
L57.8Szn8.3Home8.4Away8.3Best25
2+97%
5+88%
8+54%
11+26%
14+8%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 8.8 · hi 15 · lo 5
51115711681159

DeMar DeRozan is averaging 8.8 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.3, best 25). He clears 8+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Apr 26 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets Assists 5.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -109 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 19.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.5% on this pick. Their next game is Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors on Wednesday 8 April at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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