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The latest Bet Better model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 18.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +18.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:53AM UTC
NBA

DeMar DeRozan

Sacramento Kings

+18.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 18.5 -125 (1.80) · $100→$180
+18.4% Edge
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.0%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+18.4%
Predicted Value
22.9 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs74.0%55.6%1.35+18.4%

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AI Analysis

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DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When it comes to DeMar DeRozan, the numbers tell a compelling story, especially in this matchup against the Warriors. Over his last five games, he's been averaging an impressive 21.2 points and 2.6 rebounds, but it's his away performances that really shine-23.4 points and 3 rebounds on the road. Facing the Kings, he's been a consistent thorn in their side, averaging 27.6 points in recent encounters, with 21.6 of those coming when playing away. With a solid hit rate of 3 out of his last 5 games and a perfect 3 for 3 on the road, DeRozan is locked in. Given his expected stat value of nearly 23, the Over 18.5 for points and rebounds feels like a savvy play. Plus, the Kings' defense has struggled, making it ripe for him to take advantage. Expect DeRozan to step up and exceed that mark once again.

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Pick History & Track Record

DeMar DeRozan — 2024-25 season averages

Over 78 games in the 2024-25 season, DeMar DeRozan averaged 22.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists in 36.0 minutes per game, shooting 47.7% from the field and 33.0% from three-point range.

22.3
PPG
3.9
RPG
4.4
APG
0.8
SPG
0.4
BPG
36.0
MPG
47.7%
FG%
33.0%
3P%

DeMar DeRozan — recent role

Across his last 5 games, DeMar DeRozan has played 37.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.6
MPG (L5)
23.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

DeMar DeRozan — points hit rate

DeMar DeRozan has scored over 20.5 points in 48% of 1073 career games.

o11.583%
o12.580%
o15.569%
o20.548%
o25.527%
o30.512%

DeMar DeRozan — home vs away scoring

At home DeMar DeRozan averages 20.0 points per game; on the road, 24.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.0
PPG at home
24.7
PPG on the road

DeMar DeRozan — scoring by opponent

DeMar DeRozan scores most against the MIN, averaging 28.4 points per game in that matchup.

28.4
MIN
26.6
ATL
25.5
MIL
25.5
ORL
25.4
SA
25.3
LAL

DeMar DeRozan — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, DeMar DeRozan has averaged 24.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
16 Aprvs DAL433372
13 Aprvs PHX28805
11 Aprvs LAC401638
9 Aprvs DEN402244
7 Apr@ DET373742
6 Apr@ CLE402847
4 Apr@ CHA272243
2 Apr@ WSH402978
31 Mar@ IND423138
29 Mar@ ORL292141
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 18.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.4% on this pick. Their next game is Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors on Wednesday 8 April at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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