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The latest Bet Better model pick for Moussa Diabate is Under 13.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 99%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +12.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
NBA

Moussa Diabate

Charlotte Hornets

+12.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 13.5 -667 (1.15)
+12.0% Edge
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Fri 17 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
99.0%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+12.0%
Predicted Value
7.9 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds99.0%—87.0%1.01+12.0%

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AI Analysis

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Moussa Diabate (Charlotte Hornets) Under 13.5 Rebounds (-667)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As we dive into Friday's matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Charlotte Hornets, all eyes should be on Moussa Diabate's rebounding numbers. With a line set at 13.5, it's hard to overlook the trends suggesting he could fall short. Despite showcasing solid averages, Diabate has only managed about 8 boards on the road in his last five games, and against the Hornets, his average dips to around 7.What's even more telling is his recent performance; he's hit the under in 10 of his last 11 games, and he's been particularly familiar with this trend while traveling. His away hit rate stands at a remarkable 11 for 11, but it aligns with an expected stat value of just 7.88. With the Magic facing a Hornets squad that's not particularly weak on the glass, the under seems like a savvy wager here.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
0.2avg · last 10
L50.4Szn0.8Home1.0Away0.6Best6
1+42%
3+8%
5+1%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.2 · hi 2 · lo 0
0000000020

Moussa Diabate is averaging 0.2 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.8, best 6). He clears 1+ in 42% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
0.3avg · last 10
L50.4Szn0.6Home0.5Away0.6Best4
1+37%
2+13%
3+6%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
0010000011

Moussa Diabate is averaging 0.3 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.6, best 4). He clears 1+ in 37% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
7.6avg · last 10
L510.2Szn5.7Home5.8Away5.5Best21
1+83%
6+45%
11+17%
16+3%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 7.6 · hi 15 · lo 0
6096481581010

Moussa Diabate is averaging 7.6 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.7, best 21). He clears 6+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
7.8avg · last 10
L510.6Szn6.5Home6.8Away6.1Best21
1+89%
6+52%
11+23%
16+3%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 7.8 · hi 15 · lo 0
6096481581210

Moussa Diabate is averaging 7.8 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.5, best 21). He clears 6+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
12.5avg · last 10
L516.6Szn11.8Home12.5Away11.0Best31
2+96%
7+75%
12+45%
17+25%
22+13%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 12.5 · hi 26 · lo 0
80151361126151219

Moussa Diabate is averaging 12.5 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 11.8, best 31). He clears 12+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
12.7avg · last 10
L517.0Szn12.6Home13.5Away11.6Best33
3+93%
8+66%
13+49%
18+24%
23+13%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 12.7 · hi 26 · lo 0
80151361126151419

Moussa Diabate is averaging 12.7 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.6, best 33). He clears 13+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
4.9avg · last 10
L56.4Szn6.2Home6.7Away5.5Best16
2+93%
4+66%
6+48%
8+27%
10+21%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 4.9 · hi 11 · lo 0
20672311729

Moussa Diabate is averaging 4.9 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.2, best 16). He clears 6+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
5.1avg · last 10
L56.8Szn7.0Home7.7Away6.1Best21
1+96%
4+72%
7+46%
10+25%
13+15%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 5.1 · hi 11 · lo 0
20672311749

Moussa Diabate is averaging 5.1 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.0, best 21). He clears 7+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
0.6avg · last 10
L51.0Szn0.6Home0.7Away0.6Best3
1+44%
2+18%
3+3%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.6 · hi 2 · lo 0
1000010202

Moussa Diabate is averaging 0.6 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.6, best 3). He clears 1+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Rebounds 13.5 Under -667 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Rebs + Asts 12.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs + Asts 16.5 Under +210 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Rebounds — — — Pending
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Moussa Diabate (Charlotte Hornets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Moussa Diabate is Under 13.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic on Friday 17 April at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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