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Model picks & player props
Denver Nuggets
VS
New Orleans Pelicans

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
5
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New Orleans Pelicans (Moneyline)
For Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans (NBA), model win probability 48.1%, fair odds 2.08, book price +625, model edge +34.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New Orleans Pelicans
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New Orleans PelicansMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Denver Nuggets

  • KJ Simpson GDay-to-day
  • Trevon Brazile FDay-to-day
  • Bryce Hopkins FDay-to-day
  • Peyton Watson GDay-to-day
  • Aaron Gordon FDay-to-day

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Micah Peavy GDay-to-day
  • Karlo Matkovic FDay-to-day
  • Zion Williamson FDay-to-day
  • Dejounte Murray GDay-to-day
  • Trey Murphy III FDay-to-day
  • Yves Missi CDay-to-day
  • Bryce McGowens GDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 10:43PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsDenver Nuggets @ New Orleans PelicansNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadNew Orleans Pelicans spreadNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans (season record) meet Denver Nuggets; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineNew Orleans Pelicans to winNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans (season record) host or visit Denver Nuggets; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)New Orleans Pelicans totalNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Denver Nuggets; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Denver Nuggets totalNo line posted

Denver Nuggets averaged their season scoring ahead of facing New Orleans Pelicans; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets. Featuring picks like NA props. Discover same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.</p>

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets : Over 210.5 Total Points (-1667)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 210.5' for the Total Points in the New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets game is backed by both teams' recent scoring records. The Pelicans and the Nuggets have averaged 116.8 and 110.6 points respectively in their last five games, both considerably above the 210.5 point threshold. Furthermore, the Pelicans have averaged an even higher 118.2 points in their last five home games. Similarly, the Nuggets' opponents have averaged 113 points in their last five away games. These offensive performances, coupled with the teams' permissive defenses, indicate a high-scoring game. Therefore, the model prediction of 252.17 points gives a strong statistical rationale for betting on an outcome of over 210.5 points.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets : New Orleans Pelicans Over 106.5 Team Total Points (-476)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The New Orleans Pelicans have a strong track record of high-scoring games, especially when playing at home. Over their last five home games, they've averaged 118.2 points, well above the 106.5 outcome point for this bet. Moreover, their overall score over the last five games, regardless of venue, is 116.8, also exceeding the target. This indicates that they consistently score more than the outcome point. Furthermore, the model prediction of 125.81 points suggests a strong likelihood of the Pelicans surpassing the 106.5 point mark. With a home record of 3-2 overall and 4-1 at home, the Pelicans' performance data supports the bet 'Over 106.5' in the Team Total Points market.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets : New Orleans Pelicans win (+114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on New Orleans Pelicans is a solid choice given the team's recent performance and comparative scoring averages. The Pelicans have a better record in their last five games overall (3-2) and at home (4-1) than the Nuggets (2-3 overall and 1-4 away). Moreover, the Pelicans have averaged more points in their last five matches (116.8 overall and 118.2 at home) than the Nuggets (110.6 overall and 108.6 away). This scoring advantage, combined with their stronger performance at home, gives the Pelicans a statistical edge for this game. Despite the head-to-head record being equal (2-2), the Pelicans' superior recent form and scoring power make them a good bet for this game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA. The model has generated 5 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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