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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nikola Jokic is Over 34.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 57%, for a model edge of +32.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:01AM UTC
NBA

Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets

+32.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 34.5 -135 (1.74) · $100→$174
+32.6% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.0%
Implied Probability
57.5%
Model Edge
+32.6%
Predicted Value
43.4 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs90.0%—57.5%1.11+32.6%

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AI Analysis

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Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds (-135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Nikola Jokic is poised to dominate the court when the Nuggets face off against the Timberwolves. With an incredible average of 44 points and rebounds combined at home against Minnesota recently, he's shown he can rise to the occasion. Over his last five games at home, he's been a force, racking up 29.4 points and 13.6 rebounds. What's particularly striking is Jokic's consistency; he's hit the Over on this prop in six of his last seven home games. The Timberwolves have struggled to contain him, as he's averaged a hefty 40.8 points and rebounds against them in their last five meetings. Given his impressive overall hit rate of 70% in the last ten games, it feels like a safe bet that Jokic will clear the 34.5 mark, especially with the Nuggets' playoff aspirations on the line. Expect him to shine brightly at home on Tuesday.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
2.0avg · last 10
L52.2Szn1.9Home2.0Away1.9Best7
1+82%
2+58%
3+31%
4+12%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 5 · lo 0
2312122025

Nikola Jokic is averaging 2.0 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.9, best 7). He clears 2+ in 58% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
7.5avg · last 10
L55.2Szn9.7Home9.7Away9.8Best22
6+88%
8+75%
10+52%
12+29%
14+14%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 7.5 · hi 13 · lo 3
138128866635

Nikola Jokic is averaging 7.5 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.7, best 22). He clears 10+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
26.3avg · last 10
L530.0Szn28.5Home28.5Away28.5Best61
18+88%
23+75%
28+50%
33+33%
38+18%
Game log vs O 27.5avg 26.3 · hi 44 · lo 13
23361325164217202744

Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.3 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 28.5, best 61). He clears 28+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
33.8avg · last 10
L535.2Szn38.2Home38.1Away38.3Best71
28+86%
33+75%
38+56%
43+33%
48+19%
Game log vs O 37.5avg 33.8 · hi 49 · lo 23
36442533244823263049

Nikola Jokic is averaging 33.8 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 38.2, best 71). He clears 38+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
39.8avg · last 10
L544.8Szn41.0Home40.6Away41.5Best72
31+83%
36+74%
41+51%
46+35%
51+18%
Game log vs O 40.5avg 39.8 · hi 64 · lo 23
36572332266425364059

Nikola Jokic is averaging 39.8 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 41.0, best 72). He clears 41+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
47.3avg · last 10
L550.0Szn50.8Home50.3Away51.3Best81
41+83%
46+73%
51+51%
56+30%
61+20%
Game log vs O 50.5avg 47.3 · hi 70 · lo 31
49653540347031424364

Nikola Jokic is averaging 47.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 50.8, best 81). He clears 51+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
13.5avg · last 10
L514.8Szn12.5Home12.2Away12.9Best27
9+82%
11+64%
13+54%
15+30%
17+19%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 13.5 · hi 22 · lo 7
132110710228161315

Nikola Jokic is averaging 13.5 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.5, best 27). He clears 13+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
21.0avg · last 10
L520.0Szn22.3Home21.8Away22.7Best43
16+81%
19+73%
22+60%
25+37%
28+18%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 21 · hi 29 · lo 14
26292215182814221620

Nikola Jokic is averaging 21.0 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.3, best 43). He clears 22+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
2.0avg · last 10
L52.0Szn1.8Home1.8Away1.8Best7
1+88%
2+56%
3+27%
4+10%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 4 · lo 1
1213311242

Nikola Jokic is averaging 2.0 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.8, best 7). He clears 2+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs 34.5 Over -135 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Assists 9.5 Under +107 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebs + Asts 23.5 Under -103 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebounds — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Assists — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nikola Jokic is Over 34.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +32.6% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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