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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nikola Jokic is Under 13.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 67%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +15.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC
NBA

Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets

+15.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 13.5 -108 (1.93)
+15.6% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
67.4%
Implied Probability
51.8%
Model Edge
+15.6%
Predicted Value
12.4 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds67.4%—51.8%1.48+15.6%

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AI Analysis

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Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 13.5 Rebounds (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

In the matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, targeting Nikola Jokic for under 13.5 rebounds feels like a savvy play. While Jokic is renowned for his rebounding prowess, recent trends suggest he might not hit that mark tonight. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 12.6 boards, and at home, that number rises slightly to 13.6. However, against the Timberwolves, who he's faced frequently, he only managed 13.2 rebounds at home in their last five encounters.Moreover, Jokic has hit the under in 6 of his last 14 home games, revealing a pattern that can't be ignored. With an expected stat value of 12.41, it appears the odds favor the under. When weighing the matchup and Jokic's recent form, it seems like a promising opportunity to cash in on this player prop.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
2.0avg · last 10
L52.2Szn1.9Home2.0Away1.9Best7
1+82%
2+58%
3+31%
4+12%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 5 · lo 0
2312122025

Nikola Jokic is averaging 2.0 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.9, best 7). He clears 2+ in 58% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
7.5avg · last 10
L55.2Szn9.7Home9.7Away9.8Best22
6+88%
8+75%
10+52%
12+29%
14+14%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 7.5 · hi 13 · lo 3
138128866635

Nikola Jokic is averaging 7.5 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.7, best 22). He clears 10+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
26.3avg · last 10
L530.0Szn28.5Home28.5Away28.5Best61
18+88%
23+75%
28+50%
33+33%
38+18%
Game log vs O 27.5avg 26.3 · hi 44 · lo 13
23361325164217202744

Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.3 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 28.5, best 61). He clears 28+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
33.8avg · last 10
L535.2Szn38.2Home38.1Away38.3Best71
28+86%
33+75%
38+56%
43+33%
48+19%
Game log vs O 37.5avg 33.8 · hi 49 · lo 23
36442533244823263049

Nikola Jokic is averaging 33.8 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 38.2, best 71). He clears 38+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
39.8avg · last 10
L544.8Szn41.0Home40.6Away41.5Best72
31+83%
36+74%
41+51%
46+35%
51+18%
Game log vs O 40.5avg 39.8 · hi 64 · lo 23
36572332266425364059

Nikola Jokic is averaging 39.8 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 41.0, best 72). He clears 41+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
47.3avg · last 10
L550.0Szn50.8Home50.3Away51.3Best81
41+83%
46+73%
51+51%
56+30%
61+20%
Game log vs O 50.5avg 47.3 · hi 70 · lo 31
49653540347031424364

Nikola Jokic is averaging 47.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 50.8, best 81). He clears 51+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
13.5avg · last 10
L514.8Szn12.5Home12.2Away12.9Best27
9+82%
11+64%
13+54%
15+30%
17+19%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 13.5 · hi 22 · lo 7
132110710228161315

Nikola Jokic is averaging 13.5 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.5, best 27). He clears 13+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
21.0avg · last 10
L520.0Szn22.3Home21.8Away22.7Best43
16+81%
19+73%
22+60%
25+37%
28+18%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 21 · hi 29 · lo 14
26292215182814221620

Nikola Jokic is averaging 21.0 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.3, best 43). He clears 22+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
2.0avg · last 10
L52.0Szn1.8Home1.8Away1.8Best7
1+88%
2+56%
3+27%
4+10%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 4 · lo 1
1213311242

Nikola Jokic is averaging 2.0 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.8, best 7). He clears 2+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebounds 13.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Assists 9.5 Under +107 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebs + Asts 23.5 Under -103 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets 3-Pointers — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nikola Jokic is Under 13.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.6% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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