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Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets

Value call

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) has one live pick today: under 10.5 assists that pays $183 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
98 in 100
Predicted
7.7 assists
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 98.5% · the book's price implies 54.6% · gap +44.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Fri 30 Oct, 10:00 PM ET
Nikola Jokic
under 10.5 assists
Assists Under 10.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
Value call
HIGHWins about 98 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.30 Odds-120
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nikola Jokic is Under 10.5 on Assists.
On Assists, our numbers say this bet wins about 98 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 98%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 10:43AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists98.5%—54.6%1.02+44.8%

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AI Analysis

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Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 Assists (-120)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Nikola Jokic to go under 10.5 assists tonight, he needs to have a quieter game in setting up his teammates. The Denver Nuggets have been known to let opponents take a lot of three-point shots, which could mean fewer assists for Jokic if his teammates are not hitting those long-range looks. Plus, with the Suns playing at home, they might be more focused on scoring themselves rather than relying on Jokic to set them up. While Jokic is a great passer, he might face stiffer defense from the Suns, which can limit his assist opportunities. The fact that the Nuggets allow a decent number of rebounds could also mean more second-chance points for Phoenix, leading to less need for assists. So, while Jokic can have a big night, there's a real chance he stays under that 10.5 assists mark this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Nikola Jokic — 2024-25 season averages

Over 84 games in the 2024-25 season, Nikola Jokic averaged 28.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 9.7 assists in 36.6 minutes per game, shooting 56.1% from the field and 40.9% from three-point range.

28.5
PPG
12.5
RPG
9.7
APG
1.8
SPG
0.7
BPG
36.6
MPG
56.1%
FG%
40.9%
3P%

Nikola Jokic — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Nikola Jokic has played 41.0 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

41.0
MPG (L5)
30.0
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Nikola Jokic — points hit rate

Nikola Jokic has scored over 20.5 points in 45% of 592 career games.

o11.578%
o12.575%
o15.565%
o20.545%
o25.526%
o30.511%

Nikola Jokic — home vs away scoring

At home Nikola Jokic averages 28.5 points per game; on the road, 28.5. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

28.5
PPG at home
28.5
PPG on the road

Nikola Jokic — scoring by opponent

Nikola Jokic scores most against the WSH, averaging 29.1 points per game in that matchup.

29.1
WSH
27.6
BKN
27.4
SA
27.1
POR
27.1
MIN
27.1
PHX

Nikola Jokic — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Nikola Jokic has averaged 26.3 points, 13.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ OKC4444155
11 Mayvs OKC4327133
9 Mayvs OKC4420166
7 May@ OKC321786
5 May@ OKC4242226
3 Mayvs LAC3216108
1 May@ LAC422578
29 Aprvs LAC37131012
26 Apr@ LAC4336218
24 Apr@ LAC37231313
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns Assists 10.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
28 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Pts + Rebs + Asts 49.5 Under +115 ✓ HIT
28 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Pts + Rebs + Asts 48.5 Under +115 ✓ HIT
28 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
28 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Pts + Asts — — — Pending
28 Oct 26 Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nikola Jokic is Under 10.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +44.8% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns on Friday 30 October at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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