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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nikola Jokic is Under 9.5 on Assists.
On Assists, our numbers say this bet wins about 77 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 77%, implied 48%, edge +28.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 7:35PM UTC
NBA

Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets

+28.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Assists Under 9.5 +107 (2.07) · $100→$207
+28.7% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
77 in 100
Predicted
8.2 Assists
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.0% · the book's price implies 48.3% · gap +28.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists77.0%48.3%1.30+28.7%

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AI Analysis

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Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 9.5 Assists (+107)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As Nikola Jokic takes the court at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves, the spotlight is on his assist tally, particularly with the line set at 9.5. While Jokic has averaged a solid 11.2 assists in his last five home games, it's worth diving deeper into the matchup. His overall assists against the Timberwolves in recent outings come in at an average of 11, yet at home, that number dips to 9. This isn't just a fluke; it hints at Minnesota's defensive schemes, which often focus on limiting Jokic's playmaking ability. The Nuggets' offensive dynamics could see him more focused on scoring, especially with a playoff atmosphere brewing. With an expected stat value of just 8.19 assists, taking the under seems prudent. The numbers reveal a solid case for expecting Jokic to fall short of that 9.5 mark, making this bet an intriguing play for savvy bettors.

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Pick History & Track Record

Nikola Jokic — 2024-25 season averages

Over 84 games in the 2024-25 season, Nikola Jokic averaged 28.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 9.7 assists in 36.6 minutes per game, shooting 56.1% from the field and 40.9% from three-point range.

28.5
PPG
12.5
RPG
9.7
APG
1.8
SPG
0.7
BPG
36.6
MPG
56.1%
FG%
40.9%
3P%

Nikola Jokic — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Nikola Jokic has played 41.0 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

41.0
MPG (L5)
30.0
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Nikola Jokic — points hit rate

Nikola Jokic has scored over 20.5 points in 45% of 592 career games.

o11.578%
o12.575%
o15.565%
o20.545%
o25.526%
o30.511%

Nikola Jokic — home vs away scoring

At home Nikola Jokic averages 28.5 points per game; on the road, 28.5. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

28.5
PPG at home
28.5
PPG on the road

Nikola Jokic — scoring by opponent

Nikola Jokic scores most against the WSH, averaging 29.1 points per game in that matchup.

29.1
WSH
27.6
BKN
27.4
SA
27.1
POR
27.1
MIN
27.1
PHX

Nikola Jokic — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Nikola Jokic has averaged 26.3 points, 13.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ OKC4444155
11 Mayvs OKC4327133
9 Mayvs OKC4420166
7 May@ OKC321786
5 May@ OKC4242226
3 Mayvs LAC3216108
1 May@ LAC422578
29 Aprvs LAC37131012
26 Apr@ LAC4336218
24 Apr@ LAC37231313
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nikola Jokic is Under 9.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +28.7% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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