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Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets

+28.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Assists Under 9.5 +107 (2.07)
+28.7% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
Model Probability
77.0%
Implied Probability
48.3%
Model Edge
+28.7%
Predicted Value
8.2 Assists

AI Analysis

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Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 9.5 Assists (+107)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we dive into this matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, targeting Nikola Jokic for under 9.5 assists feels like a savvy play. Sure, Jokic has been a playmaking maestro, averaging about 9.8 assists in his last five games. However, at home, that number dips to 11.2, and against Minnesota specifically, he's averaged just 9 assists. The Timberwolves have tightened their defense, particularly against elite passers, making it tougher for Jokic to rack up those dimes. With an expected stat value of around 8.19 assists, you can see a slight regression looming. The Nuggets will likely look to exploit their offensive depth, potentially limiting Jokic's role as the primary facilitator. Given these factors, taking the under on Jokic's assists feels like a smart, calculated bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (10 picks) 90.0% (9/10)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Assists 9.5 Under +107 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebs + Asts 23.5 Under -103 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebounds 13.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets 3-Pointers — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 10 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 90.0% (9/10). The latest model pick for Nikola Jokic is Under 9.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +28.7% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.