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The latest Bet Better model pick for Keon Ellis is Under 2.5 on 3-Pointers.
On the 3-Pointers market the model assigns a model win probability of 85%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +18.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 23, 5:45PM UTC
NBA

Keon Ellis

Cleveland Cavaliers

+18.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Under 2.5 -200 (1.50)
+18.0% Edge
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies
FedExForum, Memphis, TN · Indoor
Tue 7 Apr, 12:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
84.7%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+18.0%
Predicted Value
1.3 3-Pointers

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers84.7%—66.7%1.18+18.0%

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AI Analysis

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Keon Ellis (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 2.5 Threes Made (-200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Cavaliers prepare to face off against the Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes should be on Keon Ellis and his three-point shooting. Bet the under on his total threes made at 2.5. Sure, his recent performances show him hitting over 90% of the time, but let's look deeper. On the road, Ellis has averaged just 0.4 threes made in his last five outings, and against the Grizzlies, that number dips to a mere 0.3. With Memphis' defensive intensity, particularly their perimeter defense, Ellis will face stiff competition. In fact, he typically averages around 1.4 threes overall, but that drops considerably when he's away from home. This matchup screams a low-volume night for him. With an expected stat value of just 1.34, it's clear we're leaning towards the under here-making it a smart play as he adjusts to the tough Memphis environment.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.6avg · last 10
L52.0Szn1.7Home2.0Away1.5Best9
1+81%
2+46%
3+23%
4+7%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.6 · hi 6 · lo 0
0201306112

Keon Ellis is averaging 1.6 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.7, best 9). He clears 2+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
7.0avg · last 10
L59.0Szn8.3Home9.1Away7.6Best33
3+86%
8+53%
13+16%
18+9%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 7 · hi 20 · lo 0
092311220599

Keon Ellis is averaging 7.0 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.3, best 33). He clears 8+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
8.5avg · last 10
L510.4Szn9.8Home10.7Away8.9Best34
5+78%
10+47%
15+19%
20+7%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 8.5 · hi 22 · lo 1
113231422261210

Keon Ellis is averaging 8.5 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.8, best 34). He clears 10+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
9.8avg · last 10
L512.2Szn11.0Home11.9Away10.1Best39
1+98%
6+83%
11+42%
16+20%
21+9%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 9.8 · hi 26 · lo 1
112551482661110

Keon Ellis is averaging 9.8 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 11.0, best 39). He clears 11+ in 42% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
11.3avg · last 10
L513.6Szn12.5Home13.5Away11.4Best40
2+98%
7+80%
12+48%
17+25%
22+10%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 11.3 · hi 28 · lo 2
216551782871411

Keon Ellis is averaging 11.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.5, best 40). He clears 12+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
2.8avg · last 10
L53.2Szn2.6Home2.8Away2.5Best9
1+88%
3+53%
5+15%
7+4%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.8 · hi 6 · lo 1
1332366121

Keon Ellis is averaging 2.8 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.6, best 9). He clears 3+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Apr 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies 3-Pointers 2.5 Under -200 ✗ MISS
07 Apr 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies Rebounds 3.5 Under -167 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pts + Rebs + Asts 17.5 Under -123 ✗ MISS
07 Apr 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
07 Apr 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pts + Asts — — — Pending
07 Apr 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Keon Ellis (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keon Ellis is Under 2.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.0% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Cavaliers vs Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday 7 April at FedExForum, Memphis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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