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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Keon Ellis is Under 17.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 69%, edge +20.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:15AM UTC
NBA

Keon Ellis

Cleveland Cavaliers

+20.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 17.5 -222 (1.45) · $100→$145
+20.2% Edge
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies
FedExForum, Memphis, TN · Indoor
Tue 7 Apr, 12:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
9.0 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.1% · the book's price implies 69.0% · gap +20.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs89.1%69.0%1.12+20.2%

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AI Analysis

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Keon Ellis (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-222)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Keon Ellis steps onto the court against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the pressure is on, but the numbers suggest he might struggle to make a significant impact. Averaging just 7.8 points and 2.2 rebounds on the road in his last five games, his away performances have been particularly lackluster. When facing the Cavs, he's found the basket a mere 1.7 times per game, which doesn't bode well for hitting the 17.5 mark. With a hit rate of 10 out of his last 12 games to go under this line, it seems he's been more of a role player than a star. This matchup could amplify that trend, especially given Cleveland's tough defense. With the odds heavily favoring the under, it's reasonable to expect Ellis to stay below that threshold once again. Let's take the under and watch as he navigates a challenging road game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Keon Ellis — 2024-25 season averages

Over 81 games in the 2024-25 season, Keon Ellis averaged 8.3 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 24.3 minutes per game, shooting 49.1% from the field and 43.5% from three-point range.

8.3
PPG
2.6
RPG
1.5
APG
1.5
SPG
0.8
BPG
24.3
MPG
49.1%
FG%
43.5%
3P%

Keon Ellis — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Keon Ellis has played 29.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

29.6
MPG (L5)
9.0
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Keon Ellis — home vs away scoring

At home Keon Ellis averages 9.1 points per game; on the road, 7.6. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

9.1
PPG at home
7.6
PPG on the road

Keon Ellis — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Keon Ellis has averaged 7.0 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
16 Aprvs DAL18911
13 Aprvs PHX29923
11 Aprvs LAC32511
9 Aprvs DEN322062
7 Apr@ DET37260
6 Apr@ CLE401133
4 Apr@ CHA23320
2 Apr@ WSH22230
31 Mar@ IND27934
29 Mar@ ORL18011
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Keon Ellis (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keon Ellis is Under 17.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.2% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Cavaliers vs Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday 7 April at FedExForum, Memphis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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