Here are our NFL picks for Saturday 5 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns, priced at +121 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+121)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play San Francisco 49ers in the NFL on Friday 11 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at +121 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Puka Nacua (LA) Under 7.5 Receptions (-143)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play San Francisco 49ers in the NFL on Friday 11 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Puka Nacua (LA) Under 7.5 Receptions. It was priced at -143 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Blake Corum (LA) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play San Francisco 49ers in the NFL on Friday 11 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Blake Corum (LA) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Davante Adams (LA) Under 4.5 Receptions (-128)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play San Francisco 49ers in the NFL on Friday 11 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Davante Adams (LA) Under 4.5 Receptions. It was priced at -128 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Blake Corum (LA) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play San Francisco 49ers in the NFL on Friday 11 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Blake Corum (LA) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Davante Adams (LA) Under 4.5 Receptions (-130)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Los Angeles Rams play San Francisco 49ers in the NFL on Friday 11 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Davante Adams (LA) Under 4.5 Receptions. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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