On Sunday 1 November 2026, Sassuolo play Fiorentina in Serie A. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 3.5 Total Goals, priced at -169 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-169)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Sassuolo prepares to face Fiorentina, the trend suggests a tight encounter. While both teams have struggled for form, averaging just 1.2 goals in their last five games, the defensive solidity has been noteworthy. Sassuolo's home games recently have also seen them concede an average of 2.6 goals, yet they've kept things relatively tight against Fiorentina historically, with their previous five meetings yielding just two wins apiece. Recent xG stats reveal a lack of scoring threat from both sides, with Sassuolo generating a mere 0 xG in their last five outings, while Fiorentina has matched that output. With both teams averaging under 1.5 goals scored in their last matches and the pressure on each to secure points, backing the 'Under 3.5' total goals feels like a savvy move in what could be a cagey affair.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: Sassuolo -0.25 Goal Handicap (+145)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Sassuolo prepares to host Fiorentina, recent form hints at a potential upset. While Sassuolo's overall record may raise eyebrows, their home performances have shown resilience, especially with a 2-1-2 record against Fiorentina in their last five meetings. The home side averages 2 goals per game at home and has created a respectable number of chances, despite their recent struggles. Fiorentina, on the other hand, is grappling with a 0-2-3 away record, and their attack has been lackluster, averaging just 1.6 goals on the road. With Sassuolo seemingly finding their stride at home, their edges in recent head-to-head matchups and an uptick in attacking stats suggest they could take this one. Backing Sassuolo at -0.25 presents a compelling opportunity, especially with their home advantage in play.
That is how our model reads Sassuolo v Fiorentina. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.