Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 04/17 (Jalen Johnson Highlights): Finding the Edge

When it comes to Moussa Diabate's matchup against the Orlando Magic, targeting the Under 12.5 on his combined rebounds and assists feels like a savvy play. His recent form shows he's averaging around 8.6 rebounds and 3 assists over his last five games, which lands him just shy of our target. Playing away, his numbers dip slightly-averaging 8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Against the Magic, Diabate has been held to just 7 rebounds and a mere 1.2 assists in their last five encounters. Even more telling is his away performance against Orlando, where he's only managed around 10.3 rebounds. With a solid hit rate of 3 out of 4 on this Under bet, and an expected stat value of just 8.98, it's clear that the trends favor a lower output in this matchup. This game could have him falling short of that 12.5 mark.

Ayo Dosunmu (Minnesota Timberwolves) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-109)

Ayo Dosunmu is starting to hit his stride at just the right moment, particularly when it comes to contributing points and boards. Over the last five games, he's averaged a solid 17.8 points and 3.8 rebounds, showcasing his ability to step up when the pressure is on. On the road, those numbers spike to 19 points and 6 rebounds-a clear indication that he thrives in away games, where he's been a perfect 9-for-9 on this prop.Facing the Denver Nuggets, a team he has historically matched up well against, he's put up averages of 12.8 points and 2.2 rebounds. But don't let those numbers fool you; he's been improving his away game against them. With an expected stat value of 20.68, it's hard to ignore the opportunity for Dosunmu to not just surpass the 14.5 mark, but to do so comfortably. This matchup looks ripe for a standout performance.

LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 34.5 Points + Assists (-114)

As the Lakers gear up to face the Rockets, all eyes are on LeBron James, but there's a compelling case for taking the under on his combined points and assists at 34.5. Over his last five games, LeBron has averaged just 23 points and 9.2 assists, numbers that suggest he's been more of a facilitator than a scorer lately. At home, those averages dip even further to 19 points and 8.8 assists.Historically, he's faced the Rockets with a home average of 26.6 points and 7.4 assists, which still keeps him comfortably below our mark. Plus, his hit rate is impressive-he's gone under this line in 11 of the last 12 home games. With the Lakers focusing on team play and the Rockets' defense tightening, it's hard to see LeBron reaching that threshold. Expect a calculated game from the King, making the under a smart bet here.

Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Over 9.5 Points (-108)

As the Cleveland Cavaliers gear up to face the Toronto Raptors, Sam Merrill stands poised to make a significant impact on the scoreboard. With an average of 11 points in his last five home games, Merrill has shown he's more than capable of surpassing the 9.5 mark. His recent performances, hitting over this threshold in three of his last four home outings, highlight his growing confidence at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.Moreover, while his average against the Raptors has been modest at 5.7 points at home, there's a compelling narrative here. The Cavaliers will likely lean on their perimeter players to exploit Toronto's defense, which has struggled at times. Merrill's ability to find his shot, evidenced by an impressive hit rate of 8 out of his last 11 games, suggests he'll be ready to step up. Betting on him to score over 9.5 points feels like a sound play with his current form and the home court advantage.

Landry Shamet (New York Knicks) Over 4.5 Points (-114)

In the upcoming clash between the New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks, Landry Shamet stands as a prime candidate to exceed the 4.5 points mark. Playing at home, Shamet has been a reliable contributor, averaging 6.2 points in his last five games at Madison Square Garden. His recent form is equally impressive, with an overall average of 6.6 points in the last five, and he's scored at least 4.8 points against Atlanta historically. The numbers are compelling; Shamet has hit this over in 13 of his last 17 games, and even more impressively, he's nailed it in 10 of his last 12 at home. With the Knicks facing a Hawks defense that can struggle against sharpshooters, it's hard to see Shamet staying below this threshold. Expect him to find his rhythm and capitalize on scoring opportunities, making the over look like a smart play.