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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luka Doncic is Under 51.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists.
On the Points + Rebounds + Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +20.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:58AM UTC
NBA

Luka Doncic

Los Angeles Lakers

+20.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 51.5 -108 (1.93) · $100→$193
+20.8% Edge
Los Angeles Lakers @ Indiana Pacers
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN · Indoor
Wed 25 Mar, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.6%
Implied Probability
51.8%
Model Edge
+20.8%
Predicted Value
47.0 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts72.6%—51.8%1.38+20.8%

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AI Analysis

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Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 51.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

In the upcoming matchup against the Indiana Pacers, targeting Luka Doncic for under 51.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists feels like a sound strategy. While Doncic is undoubtedly a superstar, he's had a bit of a rough patch when it comes to producing against the Pacers, averaging just 24.5 points in away games against them. His overall numbers are solid-averaging around 40 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists in his last five games-but those all-in totals can be misleading, especially given the defensive schemes Indiana employs. In fact, his recent road performance shows a drop-off, as he averages 46.98 against the expected mark of 51.5. With Doncic hitting this under 5 out of his last 7 away games, the narrative is clear: the Pacers' defense could be a tough roadblock for his usual production.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
5.9avg · last 10
L55.8Szn7.5Home7.6Away7.3Best20
3+93%
5+82%
7+62%
9+33%
11+18%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 5.9 · hi 9 · lo 1
6656719829

Luka Doncic is averaging 5.9 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.5, best 20). He clears 7+ in 62% of 2024-25 games.

Double-Double2024-25 seasonNo line posted
40%double-double rate · 2024-25
L1010%Home39%Away42%
Game log · double-double1 / 10 DD

Luka Doncic posted a double-double in 40% of 2024-25 games (1 of his last 10).

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
32.3avg · last 10
L530.2Szn28.3Home26.9Away30.3Best73
18+85%
23+73%
28+60%
33+29%
38+11%
Game log vs O 27.5avg 32.3 · hi 45 · lo 17
35302345393731173828

Luka Doncic is averaging 32.3 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 28.3, best 73). He clears 28+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
38.2avg · last 10
L536.0Szn35.8Home34.5Away37.5Best80
26+85%
31+78%
36+60%
41+27%
46+13%
Game log vs O 35.5avg 38.2 · hi 51 · lo 25
41362851463840254037

Luka Doncic is averaging 38.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 35.8, best 80). He clears 36+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
39.0avg · last 10
L537.2Szn36.4Home34.8Away38.5Best83
26+87%
31+78%
36+53%
41+35%
46+11%
Game log vs O 35.5avg 39 · hi 53 · lo 24
41372653474543243935

Luka Doncic is averaging 39.0 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 36.4, best 83). He clears 36+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
44.9avg · last 10
L543.0Szn43.9Home42.5Away45.8Best91
34+84%
39+75%
44+60%
49+27%
54+15%
Game log vs O 43.5avg 44.9 · hi 59 · lo 31
47433159544652324144

Luka Doncic is averaging 44.9 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 43.9, best 91). He clears 44+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
6.7avg · last 10
L57.0Szn8.1Home8.0Away8.2Best21
4+95%
6+85%
8+56%
10+29%
12+11%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 6.7 · hi 12 · lo 1
67388812717

Luka Doncic is averaging 6.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.1, best 21). He clears 8+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
12.6avg · last 10
L512.8Szn15.6Home15.6Away15.5Best33
10+85%
13+78%
16+49%
19+25%
22+13%
Game log vs O 15.5avg 12.6 · hi 21 · lo 3
12138141592115316

Luka Doncic is averaging 12.6 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.6, best 33). He clears 16+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.2avg · last 10
L51.0Szn1.7Home1.6Away1.9Best5
1+82%
2+51%
3+25%
4+13%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.2 · hi 4 · lo 0
0204120111

Luka Doncic is averaging 1.2 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.7, best 5). He clears 2+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds 3.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
02 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs 29.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
02 Mar 26 Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Asts 37.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luka Doncic is Under 51.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.8% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Lakers vs Indiana Pacers on Wednesday 25 March at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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