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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Deni Avdija is Under 39.5 on Pts + Rebs + Asts.
On the Pts + Rebs + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +24.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
NBA

Deni Avdija

Portland Trail Blazers

+24.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 39.5 -112 (1.89)
+24.8% Edge
Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Moda Center, Portland, OR · Indoor
Sat 11 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
77.7%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+24.8%
Predicted Value
33.8 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts77.7%52.9%1.29+24.8%

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AI Analysis

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Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Trail Blazers take on the Clippers, all eyes will be on Deni Avdija, but betting the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists line of 39.5 could be the savvy move. While Avdija has been a solid contributor recently, averaging 33.77 in his last five outings, the home court doesn't favor him as much. At home, he's only managing 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists-far below the line we're targeting. Against the Clippers, he's averaged just 13.6 points at home, and his overall production has dipped against them. With a hit rate of just 8 out of his last 9 home games falling below this number, it's clear that while Avdija is talented, this matchup may not play into his strengths. Expect a night where he struggles to reach that 39.5 threshold, making the under a compelling bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
26.8avg · last 10
L530.4Szn16.9Home17.1Away16.7Best43
7+93%
12+74%
17+47%
22+22%
27+17%
Game log vs O 16.5avg 26.8 · hi 37 · lo 15
15313617172433322637

Deni Avdija is averaging 26.8 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 16.9, best 43). He clears 17+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
32.3avg · last 10
L536.0Szn20.8Home21.1Away20.6Best46
11+86%
16+65%
21+47%
26+24%
31+18%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 32.3 · hi 43 · lo 17
17394321232737423242

Deni Avdija is averaging 32.3 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 20.8, best 46). He clears 21+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
37.6avg · last 10
L541.8Szn24.2Home24.0Away24.3Best58
14+85%
19+67%
24+47%
29+29%
34+17%
Game log vs O 23.5avg 37.6 · hi 48 · lo 21
21474428273340474148

Deni Avdija is averaging 37.6 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 24.2, best 58). He clears 24+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
43.1avg · last 10
L547.4Szn28.1Home28.0Away28.2Best61
18+83%
23+61%
28+44%
33+31%
38+17%
Game log vs O 27.5avg 43.1 · hi 57 · lo 23
23555132333644574753

Deni Avdija is averaging 43.1 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 28.1, best 61). He clears 28+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
10.8avg · last 10
L511.4Szn7.3Home6.9Away7.6Best20
3+96%
5+79%
7+44%
9+28%
11+17%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 10.8 · hi 16 · lo 6
6168111097151511

Deni Avdija is averaging 10.8 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.3, best 20). He clears 7+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
16.3avg · last 10
L517.0Szn11.2Home10.9Away11.4Best25
5+96%
8+75%
11+46%
14+29%
17+13%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 16.3 · hi 25 · lo 8
8241515161211252116

Deni Avdija is averaging 16.3 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 11.2, best 25). He clears 11+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Apr 26 Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs + Asts 39.5 Under -112 ✗ MISS
09 Apr 26 Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 32.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
09 Apr 26 Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs + Asts 38.5 Under -104 ✗ MISS
07 Apr 26 Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Points Pending
07 Apr 26 Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs + Asts Pending
07 Apr 26 Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Asts Pending

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About This Player

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Deni Avdija is Under 39.5 on Pts + Rebs + Asts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +24.8% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Clippers vs Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday 11 April at Moda Center, Portland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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