Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 26.5 Points (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishingWhen the Portland Trail Blazers face off against the Denver Nuggets, all eyes will be on Deni Avdija, but betting on him to go under 26.5 points feels like the safer play. Sure, he's been averaging 25.2 points away, but let's dig deeper. In his last five outings against the Nuggets, he's settled around 22.2 points, and even more telling, just 13.4 points in Denver. That's a stark contrast when you consider his overall away success, which might be buoyed by favorable matchups elsewhere. With a hit rate of 18 out of 20, the trends suggest Avdija tends to fall short against this specific opponent. As the Nuggets tighten up their defense, especially at home, it wouldn't be surprising to see Avdija struggle to hit that 26.5 threshold. So, let's capitalize on this mismatch and back the under.