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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zion Williamson is Over 26.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 68%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +15.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
NBA

Zion Williamson

New Orleans Pelicans

+15.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 26.5 -114 (1.88)
+15.3% Edge
New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI · Indoor
Thu 26 Mar, 11:00PM
DAY-TO-DAY
Williamson (knee) is listed as out for Sunday's game against Minnesota.
updated Jun 16, 2:42PM UTC · 34d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
68.5%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+15.3%
Predicted Value
29.8 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs68.5%—53.2%1.46+15.3%

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AI Analysis

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Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans) Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pelicans roll into Detroit, all eyes should be on Zion Williamson, especially when it comes to his points and rebounds. With an impressive average of 31 points when playing away against this Pistons squad, Zion seems poised to eclipse the 26.5 mark comfortably. His recent form showcases a strong ability to dominate, averaging 21.8 points and 6.4 rebounds in his last five road games. What's particularly compelling is his track record against Detroit: he's not just a scorer; he's a force on the boards too, pulling down an average of 7.5 rebounds in away matchups. With an expected stat value nudging nearly 30, it's hard to ignore the potential for Zion to not just meet but exceed this line. Given his recent success, targeting the Over feels like a savvy bet as he looks to assert his dominance on the court.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
0.8avg · last 10
L50.6Szn0.9Home1.0Away0.8Best5
1+57%
2+23%
3+10%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.8 · hi 2 · lo 0
0201201020

Zion Williamson is averaging 0.8 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.9, best 5). He clears 1+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
24.7avg · last 10
L524.2Szn24.6Home25.3Away24.1Best43
15+90%
20+77%
25+47%
30+23%
35+7%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 24.7 · hi 37 · lo 18
18272437202022203029

Zion Williamson is averaging 24.7 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 24.6, best 43). He clears 25+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
31.0avg · last 10
L530.4Szn29.9Home30.8Away29.2Best48
20+87%
25+70%
30+60%
35+23%
40+13%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 31 · hi 43 · lo 21
21383343232334253337

Zion Williamson is averaging 31.0 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 29.9, best 48). He clears 30+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
31.4avg · last 10
L530.4Szn31.8Home33.4Away30.7Best51
22+90%
27+77%
32+53%
37+33%
42+7%
Game log vs O 31.5avg 31.4 · hi 41 · lo 22
24373041302232283634

Zion Williamson is averaging 31.4 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 31.8, best 51). He clears 32+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
37.7avg · last 10
L536.6Szn37.1Home39.0Away35.8Best56
27+83%
32+77%
37+60%
42+33%
47+17%
Game log vs O 36.5avg 37.7 · hi 48 · lo 25
27483947332544333942

Zion Williamson is averaging 37.7 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 37.1, best 56). He clears 37+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
6.7avg · last 10
L56.2Szn7.2Home8.2Away6.6Best15
3+93%
5+83%
7+53%
9+30%
11+13%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 6.7 · hi 10 · lo 2
6106410210865

Zion Williamson is averaging 6.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.2, best 15). He clears 7+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
13.0avg · last 10
L512.4Szn12.5Home13.8Away11.7Best23
6+97%
9+87%
12+53%
15+30%
18+13%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 13 · hi 22 · lo 5
92115101352213913

Zion Williamson is averaging 13.0 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.5, best 23). He clears 12+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Triple-Double2024-25 seasonNo line posted
6.7%triple-double rate · 2024-25

Zion Williamson recorded a triple-double in 6.7% of 2024-25 games (2 in the last 217 on record).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Mar 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 26.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 24.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT
24 Mar 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs 24.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
07 Mar 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
06 Mar 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zion Williamson is Over 26.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.3% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Pelicans vs Detroit Pistons on Thursday 26 March at Little Caesars Arena, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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