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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers.
On 3-Pointers, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 75%, implied 59%, edge +16.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 7:17PM UTC
NBA

LaMelo Ball

Charlotte Hornets

+16.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Under 4.5 -145 (1.69) · $100→$169
+16.2% Edge
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Fri 17 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
3.3 3-Pointers
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.4% · the book's price implies 59.2% · gap +16.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers75.4%59.2%1.33+16.2%

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AI Analysis

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LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) Under 4.5 Threes Made (-145)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As LaMelo Ball and the Charlotte Hornets travel to face the Orlando Magic, it's a prime opportunity to bet on the under for his three-pointers made, set at 4.5. While he's been an impressive shooter lately, averaging 5.2 threes in his last five games, the context shifts when he's on the road. Out of his last 11 away games, he's hit the under in 7 of them, and against the Magic specifically, his average dips to just 3.8 threes per game. The Magic's defense is no slouch, often limiting perimeter shots, which could keep LaMelo from finding his rhythm. With an expected stat value of 3.35 threes tonight, it's clear that the odds are leaning toward a lower output. In a tight contest where every possession counts, I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall short of that 4.5 mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

LaMelo Ball — 2024-25 season averages

Over 47 games in the 2024-25 season, LaMelo Ball averaged 25.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists in 32.0 minutes per game, shooting 40.5% from the field and 33.9% from three-point range.

25.2
PPG
4.9
RPG
7.4
APG
1.1
SPG
0.3
BPG
32.0
MPG
40.5%
FG%
33.9%
3P%

LaMelo Ball — recent role

Across his last 5 games, LaMelo Ball has played 30.2 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

30.2
MPG (L5)
22.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

LaMelo Ball — points hit rate

LaMelo Ball has scored over 15.5 points in 56% of 122 career games.

o11.579%
o12.573%
o15.556%
o20.535%
o25.513%

LaMelo Ball — home vs away scoring

At home LaMelo Ball averages 25.7 points per game; on the road, 24.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

25.7
PPG at home
24.7
PPG on the road

LaMelo Ball — scoring by opponent

LaMelo Ball scores most against the MIL, averaging 29.3 points per game in that matchup.

29.3
MIL
27.6
BOS
24.1
WSH
22.5
ATL
22.0
ORL
20.2
DET

LaMelo Ball — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, LaMelo Ball has averaged 21.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
25 Marvs ORL292519
23 Mar@ MIA3418311
20 Marvs NY282558
16 Mar@ LAC311625
14 Mar@ SA2927315
12 Mar@ ATL302529
10 Mar@ MIA3615610
7 Marvs CLE231317
5 Marvs MIN3628106
3 Marvs GS342597
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic on Friday 17 April at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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