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The latest Bet Better model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers.
On the 3-Pointers market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 59%, for a model edge of +17.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NBA

LaMelo Ball

Charlotte Hornets

+17.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Under 4.5 -145 (1.69)
+17.8% Edge
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Fri 17 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
76.9%
Implied Probability
59.2%
Model Edge
+17.8%
Predicted Value
3.3 3-Pointers

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers76.9%—59.2%1.30+17.8%

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AI Analysis

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LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) Under 4.5 Threes Made (-145)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Charlotte Hornets gear up to face the Orlando Magic, all eyes will be on LaMelo Ball and his three-point shooting. While he's been a remarkable shooter, his recent trends tell a different story, especially on the road. Over his last five away games, he's averaged just five threes, and when matching up against the Magic, he's netted only 3.8 threes per game in similar settings. Defensively, the Magic have tightened up against perimeter threats, and with Ball's average against them sitting at 3.2 threes, it raises eyebrows about hitting that 4.5 mark. With a hit rate of just 64% in his last 11 away games, the under seems more than plausible. In this matchup, expect him to fall short of that threshold as he navigates Orlando's defense, making the Under 4.5 an enticing bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
3.5avg · last 10
L53.8Szn3.8Home4.1Away3.5Best9
2+89%
3+72%
4+57%
5+38%
6+15%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 3.5 · hi 7 · lo 2
4432372523

LaMelo Ball is averaging 3.5 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.8, best 9). He clears 4+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
8.7avg · last 10
L59.6Szn7.4Home6.9Away7.8Best15
3+94%
5+83%
7+62%
9+36%
11+15%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 8.7 · hi 15 · lo 5
7671091558119

LaMelo Ball is averaging 8.7 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.4, best 15). He clears 7+ in 62% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
21.7avg · last 10
L522.2Szn25.2Home25.7Away24.7Best50
15+87%
20+74%
25+62%
30+32%
35+13%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 21.7 · hi 28 · lo 13
25281315252716251825

LaMelo Ball is averaging 21.7 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.2, best 50). He clears 25+ in 62% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
30.4avg · last 10
L531.8Szn32.6Home32.6Away32.5Best60
23+83%
28+74%
33+57%
38+28%
43+15%
Game log vs O 32.5avg 30.4 · hi 42 · lo 20
32342025344221332934

LaMelo Ball is averaging 30.4 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 32.6, best 60). He clears 33+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
25.9avg · last 10
L525.0Szn30.1Home31.5Away28.8Best55
20+85%
25+74%
30+60%
35+34%
40+19%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 25.9 · hi 38 · lo 14
34381421273018302126

LaMelo Ball is averaging 25.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.1, best 55). He clears 30+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
34.6avg · last 10
L534.6Szn37.5Home38.4Away36.6Best65
27+85%
32+72%
37+60%
42+40%
47+19%
Game log vs O 36.5avg 34.6 · hi 45 · lo 21
41442131364523383235

LaMelo Ball is averaging 34.6 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 37.5, best 65). He clears 37+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
4.2avg · last 10
L52.8Szn4.9Home5.8Away4.1Best17
1+98%
3+77%
5+57%
7+26%
9+13%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.2 · hi 10 · lo 1
91016232531

LaMelo Ball is averaging 4.2 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.9, best 17). He clears 5+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
12.9avg · last 10
L512.4Szn12.3Home12.7Away11.9Best27
6+94%
9+81%
12+64%
15+38%
18+4%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 12.9 · hi 18 · lo 7
161681611187131410

LaMelo Ball is averaging 12.9 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.3, best 27). He clears 12+ in 64% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic 3-Pointers 4.5 Under -145 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Points 23.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs + Asts 36.5 Under -116 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Points — — — Pending
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Assists — — — Pending
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.8% on this pick. Their next game is Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic on Friday 17 April at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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