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The latest Bet Better model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers.
On the 3-Pointers market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +16.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:56AM UTC
NBA

LaMelo Ball

Charlotte Hornets

+16.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Under 4.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+16.3% Edge
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Fri 17 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.9%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+16.3%
Predicted Value
3.3 3-Pointers

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers76.9%—60.6%1.30+16.3%

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AI Analysis

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LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) Under 4.5 Threes Made (-154)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Charlotte Hornets gear up to face the Orlando Magic, LaMelo Ball's three-point shooting becomes a focal point for betting enthusiasts. While his recent average of 5.2 threes in the last five games looks impressive, let's take a closer look at the context. On the road, Ball's production has dipped slightly to five per game, and historically against the Magic, he's sunk only 3.2 threes recently, dropping to 3.8 when playing in Orlando.The numbers tell a compelling story: over his last 11 away games, Ball has fallen short of the 4.5 mark seven times. With an expected stat value of just 3.26 threes against a Magic defense that knows how to close out on shooters, targeting the Under seems not just reasonable but well-founded. As Ball faces a stout Orlando defense, it's a smart play to bet he'll stay below that threshold.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
3.5avg · last 10
L53.8Szn3.8Home4.1Away3.5Best9
2+89%
3+72%
4+57%
5+38%
6+15%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 3.5 · hi 7 · lo 2
4432372523

LaMelo Ball is averaging 3.5 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.8, best 9). He clears 4+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
8.7avg · last 10
L59.6Szn7.4Home6.9Away7.8Best15
3+94%
5+83%
7+62%
9+36%
11+15%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 8.7 · hi 15 · lo 5
7671091558119

LaMelo Ball is averaging 8.7 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.4, best 15). He clears 7+ in 62% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
21.7avg · last 10
L522.2Szn25.2Home25.7Away24.7Best50
15+87%
20+74%
25+62%
30+32%
35+13%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 21.7 · hi 28 · lo 13
25281315252716251825

LaMelo Ball is averaging 21.7 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.2, best 50). He clears 25+ in 62% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
30.4avg · last 10
L531.8Szn32.6Home32.6Away32.5Best60
23+83%
28+74%
33+57%
38+28%
43+15%
Game log vs O 32.5avg 30.4 · hi 42 · lo 20
32342025344221332934

LaMelo Ball is averaging 30.4 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 32.6, best 60). He clears 33+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
25.9avg · last 10
L525.0Szn30.1Home31.5Away28.8Best55
20+85%
25+74%
30+60%
35+34%
40+19%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 25.9 · hi 38 · lo 14
34381421273018302126

LaMelo Ball is averaging 25.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.1, best 55). He clears 30+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
34.6avg · last 10
L534.6Szn37.5Home38.4Away36.6Best65
27+85%
32+72%
37+60%
42+40%
47+19%
Game log vs O 36.5avg 34.6 · hi 45 · lo 21
41442131364523383235

LaMelo Ball is averaging 34.6 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 37.5, best 65). He clears 37+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
4.2avg · last 10
L52.8Szn4.9Home5.8Away4.1Best17
1+98%
3+77%
5+57%
7+26%
9+13%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.2 · hi 10 · lo 1
91016232531

LaMelo Ball is averaging 4.2 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.9, best 17). He clears 5+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
12.9avg · last 10
L512.4Szn12.3Home12.7Away11.9Best27
6+94%
9+81%
12+64%
15+38%
18+4%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 12.9 · hi 18 · lo 7
161681611187131410

LaMelo Ball is averaging 12.9 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.3, best 27). He clears 12+ in 64% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic 3-Pointers 4.5 Under -154 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Points 23.5 Under -103 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs + Asts 36.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Assists — — — Pending
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Points — — — Pending
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.3% on this pick. Their next game is Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic on Friday 17 April at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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