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NBA

LaMelo Ball

Minnesota Timberwolves

Value call
🔥 5 Consecutive Hits

LaMelo Ball (Minnesota Timberwolves) has one live pick today: under 26.5 pts rebs that pays $205 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
52 in 100
Predicted
21.4 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 51.8% · before adjusting for past results 81.5% · the book's price implies 48.8% · gap +3.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN · Indoor
Wed 28 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
LaMelo Ball
under 26.5 pts rebs
Pts + Rebs Under 26.5 +105 (2.05) · $100→$205
Value call
LEANWins about 52 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$20.50 Odds+105
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 26.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 52%, the price says 49%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 9:32AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs81.5%51.8%48.8%1.93+32.7%

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AI Analysis

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors: LaMelo Ball Under 26.5 Pts + Rebs (+105)

Odds correct at time of publishing

LaMelo Ball needs to score less than 27 points and rebounds combined tonight. The Minnesota Timberwolves have a solid defense, forcing turnovers at a better rate than most teams. They also allow fewer rebounds compared to the league average, which can limit LaMelo's chances to rack up stats. While LaMelo is a talented player, he might struggle against the Timberwolves' defense, especially since they can pressure the ball. The most concrete risk is that Golden State's pace can lead to more possessions, giving LaMelo a few extra chances. Still, our numbers show this bet is likely to hit.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)
Overall Hit Rate (23 picks) 91.3% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

LaMelo Ball — 2024-25 season averages

Over 47 games in the 2024-25 season, LaMelo Ball averaged 25.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists in 32.0 minutes per game, shooting 40.5% from the field and 33.9% from three-point range.

25.2
PPG
4.9
RPG
7.4
APG
1.1
SPG
0.3
BPG
32.0
MPG
40.5%
FG%
33.9%
3P%

LaMelo Ball — recent role

Across his last 5 games, LaMelo Ball has played 30.2 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

30.2
MPG (L5)
22.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

LaMelo Ball — points hit rate

LaMelo Ball has scored over 15.5 points in 56% of 122 career games.

o11.579%
o12.573%
o15.556%
o20.535%
o25.513%

LaMelo Ball — home vs away scoring

At home LaMelo Ball averages 25.7 points per game; on the road, 24.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

25.7
PPG at home
24.7
PPG on the road

LaMelo Ball — scoring by opponent

LaMelo Ball scores most against the MIL, averaging 29.3 points per game in that matchup.

29.3
MIL
27.6
BOS
24.1
WSH
22.5
ATL
22.0
ORL
20.2
DET

LaMelo Ball — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, LaMelo Ball has averaged 21.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
25 Marvs ORL292519
23 Mar@ MIA3418311
20 Marvs NY282558
16 Mar@ LAC311625
14 Mar@ SA2927315
12 Mar@ ATL302529
10 Mar@ MIA3615610
7 Marvs CLE231317
5 Marvs MIN3628106
3 Marvs GS342597
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Oct 26 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pts + Rebs 26.5 Under +105 ✓ HIT
28 Oct 26 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Points 18.5 Under +200 ✓ HIT
28 Oct 26 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pts + Rebs + Asts 32.5 Under +135 ✓ HIT
28 Oct 26 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pts + Asts — — — Pending
28 Oct 26 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves 3-Pointers — — — Pending
28 Oct 26 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Rebounds — — — Pending

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About This Player

LaMelo Ball (Minnesota Timberwolves) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 91.3% on tracked LaMelo Ball picks. LaMelo Ball is currently on a 5-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 26.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +32.7% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday 28 October at Target Center, Minneapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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