Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Tuesday 04/07 (Cooper Flagg Highlights): Finding the Edge

In the upcoming matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, targeting LeBron James for under 9.5 assists makes a lot of sense. While he's still a maestro on the court, recent trends suggest he might not reach that lofty number tonight. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 8.6 assists, and when you narrow it down to home games, that drops to 7.6. Historically, LeBron has struggled to pile up assists against the Thunder, averaging only 5.6 dimes in their last encounters, and even less at home with just 6.6.Moreover, his overall hit rate reveals that he's gone under this mark in 16 of his last 20 games-an impressive 80% success rate. At home, he's hit the under in 8 of his last 9 contests. With the Lakers' offensive dynamics shifting, this could be another night where LeBron facilitates rather than dominates the assist column.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 32.5 Points + Assists (-110)

As we look ahead to the matchup between the Clippers and Mavericks, keep an eye on Cooper Flagg, especially considering the under on his points and assists prop set at 32.5. Flagg has been a solid contributor, averaging 30.2 points and 3.6 assists over his last five games, but those numbers dip significantly on the road. His away averages of 23.4 points and 6 assists don't scream confidence, especially against a Mavericks team that has held him to just 23 points in their previous meetings. In fact, his last 12 away games have seen him hit the under 10 times-an impressive 83% hit rate. The Clippers' focus on defense could further hinder his production, making the under on Flagg a compelling play. Given his expected stat value sits at just 25.42, this looks like a wise bet to ride with.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 23.5 Rebounds + Assists (-102)

When you look at Nikola Jokic's recent performances, particularly against the Portland Trail Blazers, there's a compelling case for taking the under on his rebounds and assists total of 23.5. Over his last five games, Jokic has averaged 15.2 rebounds and 12.8 assists, but that's slightly inflated by his overall play. At home, his numbers dip to an average of 14.6 rebounds and 13.2 assists, translating to a combined 27.8-still a solid figure, but let's focus on the match-up specifics. Against Portland, Jokic has averaged 11.8 rebounds and 9.6 assists, and at home, those numbers drop to 13.2 and 10.2, respectively. With the trend suggesting he hits the under two out of three times lately, there's a strong chance the Blazers' defensive schemes could stifle his usual production. This makes the under intriguing as he may just fall

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)

As the Trail Blazers gear up for their matchup against the Denver Nuggets, all eyes should be on Deni Avdija's performance. While he's shown flashes of brilliance recently, averaging 22.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists over his last five games, the road has not always been kind to him. In fact, his away stats drop notably, reflecting a more modest 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds against the Nuggets.With an expected stat value hovering around 33.6, it's clear that Avdija is facing an uphill battle to reach that 41.5 mark. Historical data backs this up, showing he's hit the Under in nine of his last 12 road games. The Nuggets, a formidable opponent at home, will likely tighten the screws defensively, making it all the more challenging for Avdija. Given these trends, taking the Under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists feels

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)

As the Mavericks gear up to face the Clippers, Cooper Flagg's performance offers a compelling narrative for the Under on his points and rebounds line set at 33.5. While he's been impressive overall, averaging 30.2 points and 6.2 rebounds in his last five games, his numbers dip on the road, where he's managed just 23.4 points and 6.8 rebounds. Notably, when facing the Mavericks, he's averaged 23 points and 7.7 rebounds, a clear indication that he often struggles to hit those lofty totals against this specific opponent.Moreover, Flagg's away hit rate is astonishing-11 out of his last 12 games have fallen below this threshold. With the Clippers' defense tightening up at home, it feels like a perfect storm brewing for Flagg to fall under 33.5. This line seems inflated, considering his recent trends and the matchup, making the Under a solid bet.