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The latest Bet Better model pick for Austin Reaves is Under 40.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists.
On the Points + Rebounds + Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +39.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:59AM UTC
NBA

Austin Reaves

Los Angeles Lakers

+39.7% Edge
🔥 10 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 40.5 -106 (1.94) · $100→$194
+39.7% Edge
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.2%
Implied Probability
51.5%
Model Edge
+39.7%
Predicted Value
30.3 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts91.2%—51.5%1.10+39.7%

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AI Analysis

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Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Lakers hit the road to face the Mavericks, Austin Reaves finds himself in a challenging position. While his scoring has been solid, averaging 21.6 points per game away from home, his overall contributions have dipped when facing Dallas. In his last five games against them, he's managed only 13 points on the road, and his assists take a hit too, averaging just 2.8. With the Mavericks' defense tightening and Reaves' recent performances showing an upward trend in points but a decline in rebounds and assists against this opponent, it seems wise to lean toward the under on his combined total of 40.5. The numbers suggest he's set for a modest outing, especially considering his hit rate against this team. With everything in play, betting under feels like a strategic move in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
3.3avg · last 10
L53.0Szn2.8Home2.7Away2.8Best9
1+94%
2+76%
3+54%
4+32%
5+13%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 3.3 · hi 6 · lo 0
6441330552

Austin Reaves is averaging 3.3 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.8, best 9). He clears 3+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
4.3avg · last 10
L53.6Szn5.6Home5.7Away5.6Best16
2+96%
4+73%
6+49%
8+22%
10+12%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 4.3 · hi 7 · lo 2
7354635442

Austin Reaves is averaging 4.3 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.6, best 16). He clears 6+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
18.9avg · last 10
L516.2Szn19.9Home20.1Away19.8Best45
10+94%
15+78%
20+47%
25+24%
30+13%
Game log vs O 19.5avg 18.9 · hi 30 · lo 11
30202411231616201712

Austin Reaves is averaging 18.9 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 19.9, best 45). He clears 20+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
23.2avg · last 10
L519.8Szn25.6Home25.8Away25.3Best52
16+86%
21+76%
26+50%
31+23%
36+13%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 23.2 · hi 37 · lo 14
37232915291921242114

Austin Reaves is averaging 23.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.6, best 52). He clears 26+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
23.7avg · last 10
L521.6Szn24.5Home24.8Away24.3Best52
15+92%
20+73%
25+44%
30+26%
35+12%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 23.7 · hi 33 · lo 15
33222915301921272417

Austin Reaves is averaging 23.7 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 24.5, best 52). He clears 25+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
28.0avg · last 10
L525.2Szn30.1Home30.4Away29.8Best59
20+85%
25+77%
30+50%
35+27%
40+14%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 28 · hi 40 · lo 19
40253419362226312819

Austin Reaves is averaging 28.0 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.1, best 59). He clears 30+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
4.8avg · last 10
L55.4Szn4.6Home4.6Away4.5Best16
1+96%
3+76%
5+51%
7+24%
9+5%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.8 · hi 7 · lo 2
3254735775

Austin Reaves is averaging 4.8 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.6, best 16). He clears 5+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Austin Reaves is currently on a 10-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Austin Reaves is Under 40.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +39.7% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks on Sunday 5 April at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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