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The latest Bet Better model pick for Austin Reaves is Under 40.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists.
On the Points + Rebounds + Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +39.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:55AM UTC
NBA

Austin Reaves

Los Angeles Lakers

+39.7% Edge
🔥 10 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 40.5 -106 (1.94) · $100→$194
+39.7% Edge
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.2%
Implied Probability
51.5%
Model Edge
+39.7%
Predicted Value
30.3 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts91.2%51.5%1.10+39.7%

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AI Analysis

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Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Lakers hit the road to face the Mavericks, Austin Reaves finds himself in a challenging position. While his scoring has been solid, averaging 21.6 points per game away from home, his overall contributions have dipped when facing Dallas. In his last five games against them, he's managed only 13 points on the road, and his assists take a hit too, averaging just 2.8. With the Mavericks' defense tightening and Reaves' recent performances showing an upward trend in points but a decline in rebounds and assists against this opponent, it seems wise to lean toward the under on his combined total of 40.5. The numbers suggest he's set for a modest outing, especially considering his hit rate against this team. With everything in play, betting under feels like a strategic move in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Austin Reaves — 2024-25 season averages

Over 78 games in the 2024-25 season, Austin Reaves averaged 19.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists in 35.2 minutes per game, shooting 45.7% from the field and 37.2% from three-point range.

19.9
PPG
4.6
RPG
5.6
APG
1.1
SPG
0.3
BPG
35.2
MPG
45.7%
FG%
37.2%
3P%

Austin Reaves — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Austin Reaves has played 39.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

39.4
MPG (L5)
16.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Austin Reaves — home vs away scoring

At home Austin Reaves averages 20.1 points per game; on the road, 19.8. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.1
PPG at home
19.8
PPG on the road

Austin Reaves — scoring by opponent

Austin Reaves scores most against the DEN, averaging 18.5 points per game in that matchup.

18.5
DEN
17.2
PHX
16.7
MEM
15.8
SA
15.6
GS
15.3
SAC

Austin Reaves — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Austin Reaves has averaged 18.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
30 Aprvs MIN411252
27 Apr@ MIN351774
25 Apr@ MIN412074
22 Aprvs MIN431655
19 Aprvs MIN371633
11 Aprvs HOU332376
9 Apr@ DAL381144
8 Apr@ OKC382455
6 Apr@ OKC342023
4 Aprvs NO363037
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Austin Reaves is currently on a 10-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Austin Reaves is Under 40.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +39.7% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks on Sunday 5 April at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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