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Model picks & player props
Dallas Mavericks
VS
Indiana Pacers

Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:19AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Indoor
Sun 22 Feb 2026, 10:00PM
4
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Indiana Pacers (Moneyline)
For Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers (NBA), model win probability 62.0%, fair odds 1.61, book price +104, model edge +13.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 22 Feb 2026, 10:00PM at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Indiana Pacers
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Indiana PacersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indiana PacersPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Dallas Mavericks

  • Morez Johnson Jr. FDay-to-day
  • Santi Aldama FDay-to-day
  • Dereck Lively II CDay-to-day
  • Naji Marshall FDay-to-day
  • Cooper Flagg FDay-to-day
  • P.J. Washington FDay-to-day
  • Caleb Martin FDay-to-day
  • Kyrie Irving GDay-to-day

Indiana Pacers

  • Tyrese Haliburton GDay-to-day
  • Jarace Walker FDay-to-day
  • Pascal Siakam FDay-to-day
  • Ben Sheppard GDay-to-day
  • Aaron Nesmith GDay-to-day
  • T.J. McConnell GDay-to-day
  • Johnny Furphy GOut
Availability updated Jul 18, 2:41AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Khris Middleton Washington Wizards Assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Klay Thompson Dallas Mavericks Points 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Daniel Gafford Dallas Mavericks Blocks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Khris Middleton Washington Wizards Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Pascal Siakam Indiana Pacers Steals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsDallas Mavericks @ Indiana PacersNo line posted

Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadIndiana Pacers spreadNo line posted

Indiana Pacers (season record) meet Dallas Mavericks; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineIndiana Pacers to winNo line posted

Indiana Pacers (season record) host or visit Dallas Mavericks; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Indiana Pacers totalNo line posted

Indiana Pacers averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Dallas Mavericks; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Dallas Mavericks totalNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Indiana Pacers; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning bets for Indiana Pacers playing Dallas Mavericks. Includes analysis on key players like Daniel Gafford. Analysis includes NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks stats and odds.</p>

Daniel Gafford (Washington Wizards) Over 0.5 Blocks (-244)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Daniel Gafford has been consistently strong in blocking, particularly when playing away games. His average block rate for the last five overall games is 2.2, which jumps to 3 for away games. This suggests his performance improves when not playing on home territory. His historical performance against the Indiana Pacers also supports this bet, with an average of 2.6 blocks overall and 2.2 when playing away. Furthermore, his hit rate in his last 20 games is an impressive 95% (19 out of 20), and he has a perfect record in his last 13 away games. Given these strong block statistics, there's a high probability that Gafford will achieve over 0.5 blocks in the upcoming game against the Pacers.

Daniel Gafford (Washington Wizards) Over 0.5 Blocks (-244)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Daniel Gafford for Over 0.5 blocks in the Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks game is strongly supported by his recent performance data. Gafford's average number of blocks, both overall and away, exceeds the betting outcome point. In the last five games, his overall average is 2.2 blocks, and it increases to 3 blocks when playing away. When facing the Pacers, his block average is 2.6, which further supports the bet. The consistency of his performance is also noteworthy; out of the last 20 games, he hit this betting point in 19, and he has a perfect record in the last 13 away games. These statistics indicate a high likelihood of Gafford achieving more than 0.5 blocks in the upcoming game.

Khris Middleton (Milwaukee Bucks) Under 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Khris Middleton for under 7.5 rebounds plus assists in the Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks game is supported by several key statistics. Middleton's average overall rebounds and assists in the last five games are 3.6 and 2.8 respectively, totaling 6.4, which is below the outcome point of 7.5. Additionally, his last five games against the Pacers resulted in an average of 7.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists, also under the set mark. His hit rate for achieving under this outcome in the last three games is 100%, and 77% in the last 13 home/away games. Even when considering his performance against this specific opponent and the Pacers' home/away averages, the expected stat value is 6.19, still under 7.5. Thus, the statistics indicate a strong tendency for Middleton to stay under this mark.

Pascal Siakam (Toronto Raptors) Over 0.5 Steals (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Pascal Siakam to record over 0.5 steals in the game between the Indiana Pacers and the Dallas Mavericks is backed by several compelling statistics. Siakam's performance over his last 5 games indicates he's in good form defensively, averaging 2.2 steals overall and 1.8 steals at home. This average is well above the bet's threshold of 0.5. Additionally, Siakam's recent performance against the Mavericks supports this bet, as he averaged 0.6 steals against them and this figure rises to 1.5 when playing at home. Finally, Siakam's hit rate for this outcome in the last 5 games, both overall and at home, is 80% (4 out of 5 games), suggesting a high likelihood of repeating this outcome. These figures provide a solid statistical foundation for predicting Siakam will record over 0.5 steals in this match.

Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks : Dallas Mavericks Under 127.5 Team Total Points (-588)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The betting choice favors 'Dallas Mavericks Under 127.5' in the team total points market due its recent performance trend and the model prediction. Analyzing the Mavericks' last five games, they have averaged 120.8 points overall and 118.2 points in away games. Both averages fall significantly short of our threshold of 127.5 points. Furthermore, the Mavericks' recent form is not promising, with an overall and away record of 1-4, suggesting they are struggling to command high-scoring games. The statistical model predicts the Mavericks to score around 115.12 points, which is well below the 127.5 point line. This data-driven analysis, therefore, strongly supports the bet on 'Dallas Mavericks Under 127.5'.

Naji Marshall (New Orleans Pelicans) Under 1.5 Steals (-270)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 1.5 steals bet for Naji Marshall is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, Marshall's average steals per game against the Indiana Pacers is significantly low at 0.6. This drops further to just 0.3 steals per game when playing against the Pacers away from home, which is the case in this match. Furthermore, his average steals in the last 5 overall away games is only 1.2, still below our target of 1.5. Given these statistics, it seems more likely that Marshall will not reach the 1.5 steals mark in this particular game. The expected stat value also supports this bet, as it is lower than the outcome point at 0.9. These statistics collectively indicate that the under bet is a statistically sound choice for this player prop bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
22 Feb 26 Team Total Points Under 127.5 ✗ MISS
22 Feb 26 Team Total Points Over 105.5 ✓ HIT
22 Feb 26 Point Spread Indiana Pacers 2 ✗ MISS
22 Feb 26 Moneyline Indiana Pacers ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The model has generated 4 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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