Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Tuesday 04/07 (Cooper Flagg Highlights): Finding the Edge

As the Los Angeles Lakers gear up to face the Oklahoma City Thunder at home, all eyes are on LeBron James. While the King often dazzles with his passing, recent trends suggest he might fall short of the 9.5 assists mark tonight. Over his last five games, he's averaging 8.6 assists, and at home, that figure dips to 7.6. Even against the Thunder, where he's averaged just 6.6 assists in their past meetings, he's been more of a scorer lately, focusing on his offensive output rather than playmaking. Moreover, in the last 20 games, LeBron has only surpassed this assist total four times, underlining a consistent pattern where he's not quite the facilitating force we might expect. With an implied probability of 57.5% for him to stay under, it feels like a smart move to back the Under on his assists tonight.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 32.5 Points + Assists (-110)

As the Mavericks face off against the Clippers, all eyes will be on Cooper Flagg, but taking the under on his combined points and assists at 32.5 could be the smart play. While Flagg has been solid lately, averaging 30.2 points and 3.6 assists over his last five games, his away performances tell a different story. On the road, he's dropped to 23.4 points and 6 assists. What's more, his recent outings against the Mavericks have seen him only tally around 23 points on average. In fact, when playing away, that average dips to just 35 against this team-not quite enough to clear our target. With a hit rate of 10 out of the last 12 games on the road, it seems the travel and the Clippers' defense might just keep Flagg under that 32.5 mark. A wise play in this matchup!

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)

When the Portland Trail Blazers hit the road to face the Denver Nuggets, all eyes will be on Deni Avdija's performance. While his recent average of 22.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists looks solid, the numbers tell a different story in Denver. Away from home, Avdija's production dips significantly to 25.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists overall, but specifically against the Nuggets, he's averaged a mere 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds in past matchups on their turf. With the hit rate firmly in our favor-16 out of his last 19 games falling under this total-there's reason to believe he'll struggle to reach 41.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. Given the Nuggets' defensive prowess at home, it's tough to see Avdija surpassing this line, making the under a tempting play.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 23.5 Rebounds + Assists (+102)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic. While he's undeniably a force, leaning toward the under on his combined rebounds and assists at 23.5 could be the prudent play. In his last five outings, Jokic has averaged a robust 15.2 rebounds and 12.8 assists, yet against Portland, his numbers dip to an average of 11.8 rebounds and only 9.6 assists. At home, while he's slightly better, those figures still keep him under the mark we're targeting. The Blazers are known for their defense, particularly against elite playmakers like Jokic, often forcing him into less productive outings. With a recent trend showing he's only hit this number two out of three times at home, it's a smart move to expect a lower output as he navigates a tough matchup.

Franz Wagner (Orlando Magic) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-152)

Franz Wagner is primed for a big night as the Orlando Magic host the Detroit Pistons. With a staggering hit rate of 18 out of 20 at home, he's proven to be a reliable scorer in front of the home crowd. Averaging 16.2 points and 3.4 rebounds in his last five home games, Wagner steps up when it matters most. Against the Pistons, he's particularly lethal, posting an average of 23.6 points and 7 rebounds per game in their recent matchups. Given that the Pistons struggle defensively, Wagner's ability to exploit this weakness could elevate his production significantly. With an expected stat value of 23.5, targeting the over on 14.5 points plus rebounds seems not just reasonable, but almost inevitable. If you're looking for value in this matchup, Wagner is a name you'll want to keep in your betting arsenal.