Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Tuesday 04/07 (Cooper Flagg Highlights): Data-Driven Insights

As the Los Angeles Lakers prepare to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, all eyes will naturally be on LeBron James. However, it's worth noting that the veteran star has been trending toward a lower assist total lately. Over his last five games, LeBron has averaged just 8.6 assists, and at home, that number dips to 7.6. Against the Thunder specifically, he's been even less of a playmaker, averaging only 5.6 assists in their last five encounters. With LeBron's recent home games yielding just 6.6 assists against Oklahoma, it's clear that he's not pushing the envelope like we might expect. Additionally, in his last 20 outings, he's hit the under on this prop a staggering 16 times. Given these trends, taking the under on 9.5 assists seems like a savvy move, especially as he may focus more on scoring against a Thunder team that's struggled defensively.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) Under 41.5 Points + Rebounds (-111)

As the San Antonio Spurs gear up to face the Philadelphia 76ers, all eyes will be on Victor Wembanyama. While the hype around this young star is immense, targeting him for under 41.5 points and rebounds feels like a savvy play. Recently, Wemby has averaged a strong 31.6 points and 16.4 rebounds over his last five games, but his production against the 76ers suggests a potential dip. At home, he's been more prolific, with averages of 33 points and 11.8 rebounds, yet his performance against Philly specifically sees him clocking just 25.5 points and 10.5 boards. Given that he's hit under this mark in 7 of his last 14 home games, it's clear that while he's a rising star, this matchup may present a challenge. With those stats in mind, taking the under on Wembanyama's combined total feels both logical and promising.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 32.5 Points + Assists (-110)

As the Mavericks take on the Clippers, Cooper Flagg's scoring and playmaking will be under the spotlight, but I'm leaning towards the Under on his combined points and assists at 32.5. While Flagg has showcased his talent with an average of 30.2 points over his last five games, his away stats tell a different story. He's only managing 23.4 points and a modest 6 assists on the road. Against the Clippers, his historical performance dips even further, averaging just 23 points and 2 assists in away matchups. Consider his impressive hit rate-14 out of 19 games-but it's worth noting he's gone Under in 10 of his last 12 away games. With the Clippers' defense tightening up at home, I expect Flagg to struggle to eclipse that 32.5 mark. With the odds supporting this narrative, it's a solid play to back the Under on Flagg's points plus assists.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) Under 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108)

When the San Antonio Spurs take on the Philadelphia 76ers, all eyes will be on Victor Wembanyama, but this matchup might not play out as many expect. While he's been sensational, averaging around 31.6 points, 16.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in his last five outings, we need to consider how he performs against the 76ers. His scoring dips slightly to an average of 25.5 points in their last encounters, and at home, he's shown a consistent yet manageable output of 33 points.What stands out, though, is his rebounding prowess-averaging 18 at home against this opponent-but paired with his assists, he's still trending below the 44.5 mark we're targeting. With a hit rate of just 55% over his last 20 games and 61% at home, the under seems like a solid play here. Expect the 76ers' defense to challenge Wemby's all

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 24.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)

As the Nuggets gear up to face the Trail Blazers, it's worth considering a contrarian approach on Nikola Jokic's rebounds and assists total, currently set at 24.5. Despite his recent averages of 15.2 rebounds and 12.8 assists over the last five games, we should note that Jokic has faced challenges against Portland. In fact, his numbers dip when playing them, averaging just 11.8 rebounds and 9.6 assists. Even at home, where he usually shines with 14.6 rebounds and 13.2 assists, the Trail Blazers have historically kept him in check, with his home averages against them sitting at 13.2 and 10.2. With Jokic hitting the under in two of the last three games and the data suggesting an expected value closer to 20.78, it could be wise to lean into the under for this matchup.