Here are our NFL picks for Thursday 1 October 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins: Over (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Minnesota Vikings play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Over. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys: Houston Texans (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Houston Texans play Dallas Cowboys in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Houston Texans. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins: Over (-125)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Minnesota Vikings play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Over. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-108)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys (+110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Houston Texans play Dallas Cowboys in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dallas Cowboys. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs: Las Vegas Raiders (+115)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Las Vegas Raiders play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Las Vegas Raiders. It was priced at +115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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