Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 03/12 (Amen Thompson Highlights): Best Value Bets

Donovan Mitchell has been a scoring machine lately, averaging an impressive 34.2 points over his last five games. However, as the Cavaliers head into Orlando, we might want to consider the under on his points total of 28.5. His away scoring average has dipped significantly to just 19.4 points per game, and his history against the Magic shows a similar trend, with an average of only 23.4 points in their last matchups away from home. Moreover, Mitchell has hit the under in 9 of his last 10 road games, showcasing a clear pattern when he's outside the friendly confines of Cleveland. With the Magic's defense tightening up, limiting opponents' scoring, it's reasonable to anticipate a subdued night for Mitchell. Given the implied probability of hitting this under is 57.5%, it feels like a savvy move to lean into the under for this matchup.

Desmond Bane (Memphis Grizzlies) Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-118)

As the Cavaliers roll into Orlando, Desmond Bane stands poised for a breakout performance, especially when we look at his recent contributions on the boards and playmaking. Averaging 6.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists over his last five outings, Bane has shown he can consistently surpass the 8.5 mark when combining these stats. It's also noteworthy that he's hit this over in three straight games, showcasing his increasing impact on the court.Against Cleveland, Bane's averages against them-6 rebounds and 3 assists-align perfectly with his current form and the Cavaliers' propensity to allow the opposition a fair share of opportunities. With a solid hit rate of 13 out of 17 games at home, it's clear he thrives in familiar territory. Expect Bane to not only meet but exceed expectations as he continues to build momentum in this matchup.

Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors) Over 6.5 Points (-135)

When the Toronto Raptors host the New Orleans Pelicans, all eyes should be on Ja'Kobe Walter, especially with his points prop set at just 6.5. Walter has been on an absolute tear lately, averaging 12.6 points over his last five games, and he's hit this mark in six consecutive outings. What's even more impressive is that when he's taken to the road, he's still managed to tally an average of 11.2 points-well above our target. Against the Raptors specifically, he has showcased a knack for scoring, averaging 14 points in their last five matchups, even when playing away. With the Pelicans needing every bit of offensive firepower, expect Walter to seize the moment. Given his current form and the favorable matchup, betting on him to surpass 6.5 points feels not just reasonable but lucrative. This is a classic case of a player poised to shine under the spotlight.

Miles Bridges (Charlotte Hornets) Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-128)

As the Charlotte Hornets hit the road to face the Sacramento Kings, all eyes should be on Miles Bridges to surpass the 20.5 points + rebounds mark. His recent form is nothing short of electrifying, especially away from home where he's been averaging an impressive 22.8 points and 6 rebounds in his last five outings. When matched up against the Kings, Bridges lights it up even more, putting up an average of 25 points in their last five meetings. With an overall hit rate of 11 out of 14 games lately, and 5 of his last 6 on the road, he's clearly in a groove. The Kings' defense has struggled to contain versatile scorers, making this an ideal scenario for Bridges to exploit. Expect him to not only meet but exceed the 20.5 threshold as he continues his strong run.

Keon Ellis (Sacramento Kings) Over 5.5 Points (-130)

As the Orlando Magic gear up to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers, Keon Ellis stands out as a player primed to exceed his points prop of 5.5. Let's break it down: in his last five games, he's been averaging 5.4 points overall, but when playing at home, that number climbs to 7.6-suggesting he thrives in familiar territory. What's more, Ellis has shown a particular knack for scoring against the Cavaliers, averaging 10.3 points in their last few meetings. The numbers tell a story: with a hit rate of 15 out of his last 20 games, he's consistently finding ways to score. The Magic should create plenty of opportunities, and if Ellis continues his recent form, which includes a solid 56.5% implied probability of hitting the over, he should comfortably surpass that 5.5 mark. This is a prop bet worth considering.