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The latest Bet Better model pick for Draymond Green is Under 7.5 on Assists.
On the Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 73%, for a model edge of +21.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:58AM UTC
NBA

Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors

+21.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Assists Under 7.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
+21.9% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Sat 18 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.9%
Implied Probability
73.0%
Model Edge
+21.9%
Predicted Value
4.6 Assists

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists94.9%—73.0%1.05+21.9%

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AI Analysis

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Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Under 7.5 Assists (-270)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Warriors head into Phoenix, all eyes will be on Draymond Green, but this matchup could spell trouble for his assist numbers. While Green has flashed offensive brilliance, his recent performances against the Suns tell a different story. Averaging just 3.4 assists in his last five encounters with Phoenix, and maintaining that same figure in away games, it's clear that the Suns' defense knows how to stifle him.Moreover, Green's assist average dips to 6.6 on the road, which is well below the 7.5 mark we're targeting. With a hit rate of just 3 out of 4 in his last outings and a stunning 13 out of 17 when away, the trends strongly favor the under here. The Suns will likely focus on limiting his playmaking, making it a smart move to bank on him falling short of that 7.5 assists threshold tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.5avg · last 10
L51.8Szn1.2Home1.4Away1.0Best5
1+61%
2+35%
3+14%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.5 · hi 4 · lo 0
2021124102

Draymond Green is averaging 1.5 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.2, best 5). He clears 1+ in 61% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
3.7avg · last 10
L54.4Szn5.4Home5.4Away5.5Best19
1+98%
3+90%
5+63%
7+33%
9+10%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 3.7 · hi 7 · lo 1
1421756542

Draymond Green is averaging 3.7 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.4, best 19). He clears 5+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
9.5avg · last 10
L511.8Szn9.0Home9.1Away8.8Best23
4+84%
9+48%
14+19%
19+4%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 9.5 · hi 18 · lo 2
8767816189214

Draymond Green is averaging 9.5 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.0, best 23). He clears 9+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
13.2avg · last 10
L516.2Szn14.4Home14.4Away14.3Best32
4+98%
9+84%
14+54%
19+25%
24+6%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 13.2 · hi 24 · lo 6
9118815212414616

Draymond Green is averaging 13.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.4, best 32). He clears 14+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
14.9avg · last 10
L517.2Szn15.0Home15.3Away14.7Best33
5+96%
10+83%
15+48%
20+24%
25+9%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 14.9 · hi 26 · lo 4
131514813222613421

Draymond Green is averaging 14.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.0, best 33). He clears 15+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
18.6avg · last 10
L521.6Szn20.4Home20.6Away20.1Best45
10+91%
15+80%
20+53%
25+30%
30+13%
Game log vs O 19.5avg 18.6 · hi 32 · lo 8
141916920273218823

Draymond Green is averaging 18.6 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 20.4, best 45). He clears 20+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
5.4avg · last 10
L55.4Szn6.0Home6.2Away5.8Best19
2+96%
4+81%
6+56%
8+30%
10+11%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 5.4 · hi 8 · lo 1
5881568427

Draymond Green is averaging 5.4 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.0, best 19). He clears 6+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
9.1avg · last 10
L59.8Szn11.4Home11.5Away11.3Best32
5+96%
8+81%
11+59%
14+30%
17+10%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 9.1 · hi 14 · lo 2
612102121114969

Draymond Green is averaging 9.1 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 11.4, best 32). He clears 11+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Assists 7.5 Under -270 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Assists 6.5 Under -130 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over +117 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Asts — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Draymond Green is Under 7.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.9% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns on Saturday 18 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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