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The latest Bet Better model pick for Draymond Green is Under 16.5 on Pts + Asts.
On the Pts + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +20.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
NBA

Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors

+20.1% Edge
🔥 4 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Asts Under 16.5 -208 (1.48)
+20.1% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Sat 18 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.7%
Implied Probability
67.6%
Model Edge
+20.1%
Predicted Value
9.1 Pts + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Asts87.7%—67.6%1.14+20.1%

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AI Analysis

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Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Under 16.5 Points + Assists (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Warriors take on the Suns, it's worth keeping a keen eye on Draymond Green's performance, particularly when it comes to his points and assists. The numbers tell a compelling story: over the last five games, Green has averaged just 4.8 points and 8 assists, which paints a picture of a player who has been quietly effective but not necessarily explosive. In fact, when playing away, his scoring dips to about 10.2 points and 6.6 assists, significantly below our target of 16.5 combined points and assists. Against the Suns, he's averaged even lower, with only 4.6 points in their previous matchups. Plus, with a perfect hit rate on the under in his last four games, there's a strong narrative here. Expect Green to play a facilitating role rather than a scoring one, making the under a savvy bet as the Warriors face off in Phoenix.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.5avg · last 10
L51.8Szn1.2Home1.4Away1.0Best5
1+61%
2+35%
3+14%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.5 · hi 4 · lo 0
2021124102

Draymond Green is averaging 1.5 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.2, best 5). He clears 1+ in 61% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
3.7avg · last 10
L54.4Szn5.4Home5.4Away5.5Best19
1+98%
3+90%
5+63%
7+33%
9+10%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 3.7 · hi 7 · lo 1
1421756542

Draymond Green is averaging 3.7 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.4, best 19). He clears 5+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
9.5avg · last 10
L511.8Szn9.0Home9.1Away8.8Best23
4+84%
9+48%
14+19%
19+4%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 9.5 · hi 18 · lo 2
8767816189214

Draymond Green is averaging 9.5 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.0, best 23). He clears 9+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
13.2avg · last 10
L516.2Szn14.4Home14.4Away14.3Best32
4+98%
9+84%
14+54%
19+25%
24+6%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 13.2 · hi 24 · lo 6
9118815212414616

Draymond Green is averaging 13.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.4, best 32). He clears 14+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
14.9avg · last 10
L517.2Szn15.0Home15.3Away14.7Best33
5+96%
10+83%
15+48%
20+24%
25+9%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 14.9 · hi 26 · lo 4
131514813222613421

Draymond Green is averaging 14.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.0, best 33). He clears 15+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
18.6avg · last 10
L521.6Szn20.4Home20.6Away20.1Best45
10+91%
15+80%
20+53%
25+30%
30+13%
Game log vs O 19.5avg 18.6 · hi 32 · lo 8
141916920273218823

Draymond Green is averaging 18.6 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 20.4, best 45). He clears 20+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
5.4avg · last 10
L55.4Szn6.0Home6.2Away5.8Best19
2+96%
4+81%
6+56%
8+30%
10+11%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 5.4 · hi 8 · lo 1
5881568427

Draymond Green is averaging 5.4 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.0, best 19). He clears 6+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
9.1avg · last 10
L59.8Szn11.4Home11.5Away11.3Best32
5+96%
8+81%
11+59%
14+30%
17+10%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 9.1 · hi 14 · lo 2
612102121114969

Draymond Green is averaging 9.1 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 11.4, best 32). He clears 11+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Asts 16.5 Under -208 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Assists 7.5 Under -263 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Assists 6.5 Under -135 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Draymond Green is currently on a 4-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Draymond Green is Under 16.5 on Pts + Asts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.1% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns on Saturday 18 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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