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NBA

Jaylen Brown

Boston Celtics

+4.3% Edge
Latest Pick
Rebs + Asts Under 16.5 -909 (1.11)
+4.3% Edge
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics
TD Garden, Boston
Sat 14 Mar, 10:00PM
Model Probability
94.4%
Implied Probability
90.1%
Model Edge
+4.3%
Predicted Value
11.1 Rebs + Asts

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics) Under 16.5 Rebounds + Assists (-909)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Celtics gear up to face the Wizards, targeting Jaylen Brown for under 16.5 combined rebounds and assists feels like a savvy move. In his last five outings, Brown has averaged just 6.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists, which puts him comfortably below our target. At home, those numbers don't budge much, with him still hovering around 7.4 boards and 5.2 assists. When matched against the Wizards, he's averaged 6.2 rebounds and only 4 assists-numbers that suggest a lower ceiling against this opponent. With a staggering hit rate-19 out of his last 20 games hitting the under-it's clear that Brown often doesn't need to carry the load in a stacked Celtics lineup. With Boston at home and a strong propensity for underperformance in this specific prop, it seems wise to lean into this trend and expect Brown to stay under that 16.5 mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (25 picks) 92.0% (23/25)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Mar 26 Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics Rebs + Asts 16.5 Under -909 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics Rebs + Asts 12.5 Under -139 ✓ HIT
13 Mar 26 Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder Assists 7.5 Under -714 ✓ HIT
13 Mar 26 Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder Assists Pending
13 Mar 26 Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder Assists Pending
13 Mar 26 Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebs + Asts Pending

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