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NBA

Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat

Value call

Pelle Larsson (Miami Heat) has one live pick today: under 3.5 assists that pays $210 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
55 in 100
Predicted
2.9 assists
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 55.4% · before adjusting for past results 67.6% · the book's price implies 47.6% · gap +7.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT · Indoor
Tue 10 Nov, 9:00 PM ET
Pelle Larsson
under 3.5 assists
Assists Under 3.5 +110 (2.10) · $100→$210
Value call
LEANWins about 55 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$21.00 Odds+110
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pelle Larsson is Under 3.5 on Assists.
On Assists, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 48%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Nov 13, 2:29PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nba pts + rebs unders: +$3,013 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
DAY-TO-DAY
Larsson (illness) is listed as questionable for Friday's game against Cleveland.
updated Nov 12, 9:20PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists67.6%55.4%47.6%1.81+20.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Utah Jazz vs Miami Heat: Pelle Larsson Under 3.5 Assists (+110)

Odds correct at time of publishing

You can get +110 odds on Pelle Larsson getting under 3.5 assists in the game against the Miami Heat. Our numbers think there's a good chance he'll stay under that mark. The Jazz have had a tough time creating turnovers, which can limit how many chances he gets to assist his teammates. Plus, with the Heat forcing turnovers more often, it could mean the Jazz struggle to keep the ball moving. One thing to watch is Larsson's role in the offense. If he's not handling the ball as much, he might not get the opportunities to set up his teammates. The Heat also allow a decent number of three-point attempts, but they have a solid defense overall. So, while this bet has promise, it's not a sure thing.

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See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (23 picks) 56.5% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers MadeSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active 3-Pointers Made prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

AssistsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Assists prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

PointsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Points prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Points + AssistsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Points + Assists prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Points + ReboundsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Points + Rebounds prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Pts + Reb + AstSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Pts + Reb + Ast prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

ReboundsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Rebounds prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Rebounds + AssistsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Rebounds + Assists prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz Assists 3.5 Under +110 ✓ HIT
08 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings Points 9.5 Under +175 ✗ MISS
08 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings Rebounds 3.5 Under -139 ✓ HIT
08 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings Rebounds — — — Pending
05 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors Pts + Asts — — — Pending
05 Nov 26 Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Pelle Larsson (Miami Heat) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 56.5% on tracked Pelle Larsson picks. The latest model pick for Pelle Larsson is Under 3.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.0% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Utah Jazz on Tuesday 10 November at Delta Center, Salt Lake City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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