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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pelle Larsson is Over 12.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +28.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
NBA

Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat

+28.6% Edge
🔥 6 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 12.5 -110 (1.91)
+28.6% Edge
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.0%
Implied Probability
52.4%
Model Edge
+28.6%
Predicted Value
18.6 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs81.0%52.4%1.23+28.6%

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AI Analysis

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Pelle Larsson (Miami Heat) Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Toronto Raptors face off against the Miami Heat, all eyes should be on Pelle Larsson. Hitting the Over on 12.5 points and rebounds feels like a smart play given his recent form. Over the last six games, he's been nothing short of sensational, clearing this mark every time. On the road, he's maintained a solid average of 14.4 points and 4 rebounds, showcasing his ability to shine even when away from home.What's particularly intriguing is his recent performances against Miami; while he averages around 6.5 points in past matchups, this time, he's likely to tap into that away game mentality, where he tends to elevate his game, averaging 8 points against the Heat. With an expected stat value of 18.57 and a hit rate of 9/9 for away games, betting on Larsson to go Over 12.5 seems like a winning strategy.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers MadeSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active 3-Pointers Made prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

PointsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Points prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Points + ReboundsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Points + Rebounds prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

ReboundsSeason marketNo line posted

Pelle Larsson has active Rebounds prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Pts + Rebs 12.5 Over -110 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over -109 ✗ MISS
07 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Pts + Rebs 12.5 Over -175 ✗ MISS
27 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs Pending
25 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs Pending
25 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Pelle Larsson (Miami Heat) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Pelle Larsson is currently on a 6-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Pelle Larsson is Over 12.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +28.6% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors on Thursday 9 April at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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