Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 03/13 (Deandre Ayton Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

As the Lakers prepare to host the Bulls, targeting Luka Doncic for under 40.5 points plus assists could be a savvy play. Despite his star power, Doncic's recent production suggests a slight dip is on the horizon. Over his last five games, he's averaged 30.2 points and 5.8 assists-numbers that, when combined, fall short of our target. At home, he's slightly better with 33.8 points and 6.4 assists, but the matchup against the Bulls has historically been tough for him. He's averaged just 23 points and 8 assists at home versus Chicago, well below our threshold. With a hit rate of 5-for-5 in his last outings and recent trends favoring the under, it seems the stars might not align for Doncic to eclipse that 40.5 mark this time around. Trust the data and the matchup dynamics-this could be an opportunity for a smart under play.

Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics) Under 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (-1111)

As the Celtics gear up to face the Thunder, all eyes will be on Jaylen Brown's contributions. However, the numbers suggest a different narrative, particularly when it comes to his combined rebounds and assists. Averaging just 11.1 in his last five games, he's been far from the prolific playmaker we often expect. On the road, that average dips even lower-just 3 assists and 7.2 rebounds. Against Oklahoma City, Brown has historically struggled, posting an average of only 4.6 rebounds and a meager 2.8 assists in their previous matchups. With a staggering 19 out of 20 hit rate leaning towards the under in his last outings, it's clear that this matchup may not be favorable for him. Given these trends, betting the under on Brown's 17.5 combined rebounds and assists feels like a savvy play. Expect him to come up short as the Celtics navigate this tough away environment.

Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 5.5 Assists (-1250)

As the Oklahoma City Thunder prepare to face the Boston Celtics, all eyes are on Ajay Mitchell and his assist numbers. With a prop set at 5.5, it's hard not to lean towards the under, especially given Mitchell's recent performance. He has hit this mark in his last 20 games-every single one at home, which speaks volumes about his role in the offense. At a staggering 92.6% implied probability, it's clear that the books are anticipating a quieter night for him in the assist column. The Celtics are known for their defensive prowess, which could further complicate his ability to distribute the ball effectively. With the Thunder likely focusing on other scoring options, Mitchell may find it tough to reach that 6-assist threshold. A perfect storm of defensive pressure and a shift in offensive dynamics makes the under on Mitchell's assists a compelling bet this Friday night.

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-1250)

When it comes to Chet Holmgren's performance against the Boston Celtics, the numbers tell a compelling story that leans toward the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists. Although he's been a bright spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder, his recent averages don't support a high total. Over his last five games, he's amassed just 13 points and 10 rebounds, with a mere 0.6 assists per game. At home, those averages dip slightly, reflecting the pressure that comes with playing in front of a packed arena. Historically, against the Celtics, he's averaged 14 points and 8.3 rebounds, hardly approaching the lofty 36.5 mark. With an impressive 20-for-20 hit rate recently, it seems Holmgren thrives under specific conditions, but this game against Boston might not be one of them. The under presents a sound opportunity here, given the context and stats.