Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 03/13 (Christian Braun Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

As the Lakers gear up to face the Bulls, all eyes should be on Deandre Ayton, particularly when it comes to his points and assists combined. He's been quietly efficient, averaging 13.4 points and 2 assists over his last five games, but there's more to the story. His recent form against the Bulls has seen him score around 11 points, yet with his overall hit rate soaring to 8 out of 11 in his last stretch, it's clear he's finding ways to contribute when it counts.What's promising is that Ayton has shown he can step up in high-pressure matchups, and with an expected stat value nudging 17, it feels like we're getting solid value here. The Lakers will need his versatility, and if he can find the right opportunities, surpassing that 13.5 mark seems not just realistic, but likely. So, targeting Ayton for the over could very well pay off handsomely in this matchup.

Cason Wallace (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 11.5 Points + Assists (-133)

As the Oklahoma City Thunder gear up to host the Boston Celtics, all eyes will be on Cason Wallace, but I'm leaning towards an intriguing player prop. With the line set at 11.5 for combined points and assists, it's worth considering the under. Over the last five games, Wallace has averaged just 6.4 points and a mere 0.6 assists overall, and at home, those numbers only marginally improve to 7.2 points and 1 assist. Against the Celtics, he's managed to net only 9 points in his last home encounter, and his playmaking has been similarly muted, with 2.5 assists in that span. With a perfect hit rate of 10/10 in his last ten outings, it seems like a favorable moment for this under bet. Given the matchup dynamics and his current form, I believe Wallace will struggle to eclipse that 11.5 mark tonight.

Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) Under 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-1000)

In tonight's showdown between the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs, targeting Jamal Murray for Under 45.5 points, rebounds, and assists feels like a savvy move. Despite his undeniable talent, recent trends reveal a stark drop in production on the road. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4 assists away from home-nowhere near the lofty total we're discussing. Moreover, his historical performance against the Spurs suggests a similar fate, as he averages only 20.2 points and 6.2 rebounds in matchups against them, even lower on the road. With a flawless 16-0 hit rate in his last away games, it's tough to ignore the numbers. As the Nuggets face a Spurs team eager to defend their home court, expect Murray to struggle to reach that 45.5 mark, making the Under a compelling choice tonight.

Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 5.5 Assists (-1000)

As the Oklahoma City Thunder gear up to face the Boston Celtics, all eyes are on Ajay Mitchell's assists prop. With the line set at 5.5, there's a compelling case for taking the under. Mitchell has been on a remarkable run, hitting the under in all 20 of his last games-not just overall, but also at home. The Thunder's offensive scheme often sees ball movement shared among multiple players, which can limit any one player's assist numbers. Against a staunch Celtics defense, Mitchell might find it even tougher to rack up those assists. The Celtics excel at disrupting passing lanes, which could further diminish Mitchell's opportunities. With an implied probability of 90.9% for this under bet, it's hard to ignore the trends and matchups at play. For those looking to capitalize on this, the under on Mitchell's assists looks like a savvy wager.

Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics) Under 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (-1111)

As Boston travels to face the Thunder, the spotlight turns to Jaylen Brown, but not in the way you might expect. With a prop bet set at 17.5 for rebounds and assists combined, the under seems particularly enticing. Brown's recent performances show he's averaging just 6.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists over his last five games, falling short of that mark. When hitting the road, those numbers dip further, with his away averages at 7.2 rebounds and only 3 assists. Historically, against the Thunder, he's also struggled, posting just 4.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists in their last five matchups. The trend is stark-he's hit the under in 19 of his last 20 games, and remarkably, 20 for 20 while playing away. With the Thunder's defense tightening up, this could be a perfect storm for Brown to underdeliver on that 17.5 line.