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MLB

Cleveland Guardians

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

Every pick graded — see verified results
Next Game: vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Home) Fri 17 Jul, 11:10PM Progressive Field, Cleveland · Outdoor
Model updated Jul 17, 9:24AM UTC
Answer
The Cleveland Guardians model is leaning the over in the Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings market vs Pittsburgh Pirates.
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Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings
Over 0.5
Odds: +112
Model prob: 64.2%
+17.0%
Free pick — today's headline game edge

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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Total Runs - 1st 1 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
SpreadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Moneyline - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
MoneylineProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total RunsProbability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 6 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Updated 9 Jul 2026, 16:06 UTC · may be stale
3B
Jose RamirezOUTinjury
LF
Angel MartinezOUTinjury
RP
Tim HerrinOUTinjury

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Ballpark conditions (temperature, wind direction and roof state) can move MLB run totals, and matter most in open-air parks with strong prevailing winds.
Per-game ballpark weather is pending a file→table persistence job (owner). No live park weather is shown here until that data is in the database.

Model Performance History

All results →
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate
DateOpponentMarketPickResult

Betting angles

3 markets live
Run LineCleveland Guardians run line-2.5 +285+12.4% edge
+1.1proj. margin
L5 RF4.4L5 RA1.0Home L52-3ATS7-6

Cleveland Guardians spread vs Pittsburgh Pirates is live with a model 38% read and a +12.4% model edge; proj. margin +1.1.

MoneylineCleveland Guardians to win-123+9.7% edge
65%model win %
5-0L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA1.0Home L52-3Win rec8-2

Cleveland Guardians moneyline vs Pittsburgh Pirates is live with a model 65% read and a +9.7% model edge; L5 record 5-0.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 6.5 +148+6.9% edge
6.8proj. runs
L5 RF4.4L5 RA1.0Home L52-3O/U9-10

Cleveland Guardians total runs vs Pittsburgh Pirates is live with a model 47% read and a +6.9% model edge; proj. runs 6.8.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
4.4L5 runs/gm
L5 RF4.4L5 RA1.0Home L52-3

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 5-0, 4.4 runs/gm.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Cleveland Guardians have gone 5-0 over their last 5 games, averaging 4.4 runs and 5.2 hits per game while allowing 1.0 earned runs.

5-0
Last 5
4.4
Runs / G
5.2
Hits / G
1.4
HR / G
2.8
RBI / G
1.0
ER Allowed / G
2.4
Ks / G

About This Team

Cleveland Guardians are tracked by the Bet Better model across MLB games. Their next game is against Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday 17 July at Progressive Field. Use the data above to inform your MLB betting decisions for Cleveland Guardians.