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MLB

Cleveland Guardians

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

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Next Game: vs New York Mets (Home) Thu 6 Aug, 5:10PM Progressive Field, Cleveland · Outdoor
Model updated Aug 6, 2:15PM UTC
Answer
The Cleveland Guardians model is leaning the over in the Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings market vs New York Mets.
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Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Over 8.5
Odds: +640
Model prob: 51.4%
+37.8%
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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Total Runs - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total RunsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Runs - 1st 1 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Moneyline - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Moneyline - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
SpreadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
SpreadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
MoneylineProbability, fair odds & edge locked
MoneylineProbability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 11 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Updated 5 Aug 2026, 22:40 UTC · may be stale
RP
Shawn ArmstrongOUTinjury
3B
Jose RamirezDAY-TO-DAYinjury

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Ballpark conditions (temperature, wind direction and roof state) can move MLB run totals, and matter most in open-air parks with strong prevailing winds.
Per-game ballpark weather is pending a file→table persistence job (owner). No live park weather is shown here until that data is in the database.

Model Performance History

All results →
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Total Picks
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Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateOpponentMarketPickResult

Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs New York MetsOver 10 +241
65%over %
11.7proj. runs
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L52-3

Cleveland Guardians total runs vs New York Mets is live and our model makes it 65% (LEAN); proj. runs 11.7.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run line-2 +1100
-0.8proj. margin
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L52-3

Cleveland Guardians spread vs New York Mets is live and our model makes it 29% (LONG-SHOT); proj. margin -0.8.

MoneylineCleveland Guardians to win+250
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L52-3Free board11-7

Cleveland Guardians moneyline vs New York Mets is live and our model makes it 46% (LONG-SHOT); L5 record 2-3.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
3.0L5 runs/gm
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L52-3

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Cleveland Guardians have gone 3-2 over their last 5 games, averaging 4.2 runs and 6.4 hits per game while allowing 2.2 earned runs.

3-2
Last 5
4.2
Runs / G
6.4
Hits / G
0.4
HR / G
2.4
RBI / G
2.2
ER Allowed / G
3.6
Ks / G

About This Team

Cleveland Guardians are tracked by the Bet Better model across MLB games. Their next game is against New York Mets on Thursday 6 August at Progressive Field. Use the data above to inform your MLB betting decisions for Cleveland Guardians.

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