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Model picks & player props
San Diego Padres
VS
Cleveland Guardians

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 3, 3:53PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline +100

The model graded 70 markets for San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 5:40PM at Progressive Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win52.5%
The price says49.1%
Best price+100
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Cleveland Guardians Lean53% chance +100
Spread Long-shot28% chance
Spread Long-shot14% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean47% chance
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 8 props Highup to 80%
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 83%
Batter - Singles × 11 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 86%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 82%
Batter - Runs Scored × 7 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Walks × 8 props Highup to 96%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 2 props Highup to 81%
Batter - RBIs × 2 props Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Cleveland Guardians -3.5 · $100 returned $490

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,565+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Cleveland GuardiansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

San Diego Padres

  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Nick Pivetta SPOut
  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Casey Mize SP

Cleveland Guardians

  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut
  • Slade Cecconi SPOut

Probable pitcher

Joey Cantillo SP
Availability updated Sep 2, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Tanner Bibee CLE Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Xander Bogaerts SDP Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Gavin Sheets CHW Batter - Hits
Jackson Merrill Batter - Singles
Jackson Merrill Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs San Diego Padres L51-4Free board17-16

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs San Diego Padres L51-4

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego PadresNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
1.1runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs San Diego Padres L51-4

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 2 of their last 5 games; San Diego Padres have won 1 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–11TORHome
W6–1TORHome
W11–1KCHome
L3–8KCHome
L0–3KCHome
San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–7CINAway
L3–4CINAway
W5–0CINAway
L4–5TBAway
L6–7TBAway

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Cleveland Guardians won 2, San Diego Padres won 3.

DateCleveland GuardiansSan Diego PadresWinner
Aug 1605San Diego Padres
Aug 1561Cleveland Guardians
Aug 1457San Diego Padres
Mar 1458San Diego Padres
Mar 771Cleveland Guardians

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT
Slade Cecconi SPOUT
San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Nick Pivetta SPOUT
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Our San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Rhys Hoskins (PHI) Under 0.5 RBIs (-294), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 5.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Padres vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Padres. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 18 meetings on record
San Diego Padres 12–6 across the last 18 meetings · these games average 9.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians0–5San Diego Padres
15 Aug 2026San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians6–1Cleveland Guardians
14 Aug 2026San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians5–7San Diego Padres
14 Mar 2026Cleveland Guardians @ San Diego Padres8–5San Diego Padres
7 Mar 2026San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians7–1Cleveland Guardians
2 Apr 2025Cleveland Guardians @ San Diego Padres5–2San Diego Padres
1 Apr 2025Cleveland Guardians @ San Diego Padres7–0San Diego Padres
31 Mar 2025Cleveland Guardians @ San Diego Padres7–2San Diego Padres
22 Mar 2025San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians12–8Cleveland Guardians
8 Mar 2025Cleveland Guardians @ San Diego Padres7–2San Diego Padres

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 18 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

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