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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Cleveland Guardians

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 20 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians and backs Pittsburgh Pirates hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $300.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline +200

The model graded 20 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $300 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 19 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Progressive Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win74.7%
The price says33.3%
Best price+200
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates High75% chance +200
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only High67% chance Members
Total Runs Members only High68% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean45% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only High78% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only High70% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only High76% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Guardians last met on Sun 19 Jul 2026: Pittsburgh Pirates won 7-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Oneil Cruz CFDay-to-day
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Esmerlyn Valdez RFOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut

Cleveland Guardians

  • Colin Holderman RPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Andrew Walters RPOut

Probable pitcher

Gavin Williams SP
Availability updated Oct 5, 9:00PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA3.6Home L55-0vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA3.6Home L55-0vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
4.3runs we expect
L5 RF5.2L5 RA3.6Home L55-0vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 3 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 2 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–3CHWHome
L2–3KCAway
W11–5KCAway
W12–9KCAway
W1–0BOSAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2DETAway
L3–4DETAway
L7–8DETAway
W2–1STLHome
L1–5STLHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cleveland Guardians are scoring 3.0 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 9.6 (5-0); Cleveland Guardians pitchers are allowing 2.8 earned runs per game versus 4.0 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.0
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
9.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesCleveland GuardiansPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.09.6
Hits / game6.410.0
Home runs / game0.42.6
Walks drawn / game1.21.2
Batter K / game7.06.4
Earned runs allowed / game2.84.0
Pitching K / game4.27.6
Walks allowed / game1.23.0
L5 record3-25-0

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Cleveland Guardians won 1, Pittsburgh Pirates won 2.

DateCleveland GuardiansPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jul 1917Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1853Cleveland Guardians
Jul 1817Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

9 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Colin Holderman RPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Andrew Walters RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Oneil Cruz CFDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Esmerlyn Valdez RFOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Cleveland Guardians playing Pittsburgh Pirates. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 4.5 Total Runs (-435)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Guardians face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the stage is set for a high-scoring showdown. Both offenses have been heating up lately, with the Guardians ranking among the league's top teams in runs scored over the past month, showcasing a potent mix of power and plate discipline. They've been particularly adept at capitalizing on mistakes, often turning walks and errors into runs. On the other side, the Pirates have shown flashes of offensive brilliance, with key players stepping up in clutch situations. Their recent games have been marked by a tendency to engage in slugfests, which aligns perfectly with the Guardians’ trend of high-scoring affairs. With a total set at a modest 4.5 runs, and with both teams averaging significantly higher recently, taking the over feels like a savvy play. Expect the bats to come alive, making this one a thrilling offensive showcase.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Sunday 19 July 2026 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians head-to-head record

Final scores · 11 meetings on record
Cleveland Guardians 8–3 across the last 11 meetings · these games average 9.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 19 Jul 2026, Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians: the Pirates won 7-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
19 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians1–7Pittsburgh Pirates
18 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians5–3Cleveland Guardians
20 Apr 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–5Cleveland Guardians
19 Apr 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–3Cleveland Guardians
18 Apr 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates7–10Cleveland Guardians
1 Sep 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians6–1Cleveland Guardians
31 Aug 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians0–3Pittsburgh Pirates
30 Aug 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians10–8Cleveland Guardians
19 Jul 2023Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates7–5Pittsburgh Pirates
18 Jul 2023Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–10Cleveland Guardians

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 11 meetings on file.

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