Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Parker Messick is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 43 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 43%, the price says 44%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Under 5.50 SOlanded 5 of the last 5
Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.
Model updated Sep 22, 1:09AM UTC
MLB
Parker Messick
CLE
Parker Messick has one live pick today: Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 1.5 that pays $229 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 1.5
+129 (2.29) · $100→$229
Value call
Cleveland Guardians
@
Minnesota Twins
Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 8:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts overs: 181 of 382 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
43 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Pitcher - Earned Runs
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 43.4% · before adjusting for past results 53.6% · the book's price implies 43.7% · gap -0.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 53.6% | 43.4% | 43.7% | 2.35 | +9.9% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
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Parker Messick (CLE) Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+129)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Minnesota Twins play Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Parker Messick (CLE) Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+129). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at +129 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Hit-rate ladder: SO
Parker Messick has gone over 2.5 SO in 20% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o2.520%
o3.50%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
Parker Messick (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Parker Messick is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.9% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins on Saturday 12 September at Target Field, Minneapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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