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The latest Bet Better model pick for Gavin Williams is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +1.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Gavin Williams

CLE

+1.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 1.5 -1429 (1.07)
+1.9% Edge
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio · Outdoor
Tue 30 Sep, 5:08PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.3%
Implied Probability
93.5%
Model Edge
+1.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed95.3%—93.5%1.05+1.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Gavin Williams (CLE) Over 1.5 Hits Allowed (-1429)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on Gavin Williams for Over 1.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is based on his consistent performance data. On average, Williams has allowed 4.6 hits overall and 5 hits at home in his last five appearances. Even when facing the Detroit Tigers, his hits allowed average remains high at 4.5. Furthermore, his innings pitched and outs averages suggest he's on the mound long enough for the opposition to capitalize. His current hit streak both overall and at home also supports this bet. The consistent pattern of allowing more than 1.5 hits, regardless of location or opponent, indicates a high probability of this trend continuing. Therefore, betting over 1.5 for Williams' hits allowed is statistically justified.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.520%
O 3.520%

Gavin Williams MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak9L2095%
O 1.590%
O 2.580%
O 3.570%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%
O 6.520%

Gavin Williams MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak13L2095%
O 0.5100%
O 1.590%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%

Gavin Williams MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
2.4avg earned runs · L5
Streak2L2065%

Gavin Williams MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 2.4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
15.6avg outs · L5
Streak3L2070%

Gavin Williams MLB outs: cleared over 14.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 15.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Gavin Williams (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Gavin Williams is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday 30 September at Progressive Field, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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