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Model picks & player props
Cleveland Guardians
VS
Miami Marlins

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 21, 12:41PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Cleveland Guardians -0.5 Spread - 1st 5 Innings +118

The model graded 20 markets for Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $218 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win62.6%
The price says45.9%
Best price+118
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Cleveland Guardians -0.5 High63% chance +118
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings High68% chance
Spread Long-shot36% chance
Spread Lean41% chance
Spread Lean45% chance
Spread Long-shot29% chance
Spread Lean49% chance
Spread Long-shot32% chance
Spread Long-shot22% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Cleveland Guardians -0.5 · $100 returned $218

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 840 of 1,690 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 21
Under 4.5
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $483
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread - 1st 5 Innings
Cleveland Guardians
-0.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Cleveland GuardiansSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cleveland Guardians

  • Chase DeLauter RFDay-to-day
  • Jo Adell RFDay-to-day
  • Slade Cecconi SPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Colin Holderman RPDay-to-day
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut

Probable pitcher

Gavin Williams SP

Miami Marlins

  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Kyle Stowers 1BOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
Availability updated Aug 20, 5:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA1.0Home L54-1vs Cleveland Guardians L55-0Free board11-9

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 0-5, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA1.0Home L54-1vs Cleveland Guardians L55-0

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 0-5, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA1.0Home L54-1vs Cleveland Guardians L55-0

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.8 runs/gm.

Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Cleveland Guardians have won 3 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4PHIAway
L4–6PHIAway
L5–6PHIAway
W7–1CINAway
W8–4CINAway
Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–2SFHome
L0–1SFHome
W8–1SFHome
L0–5SDHome
W6–1SDHome

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Miami Marlins are scoring 5.4 runs per game (5-0) while Cleveland Guardians are at 3.6 (2-3); Miami Marlins pitchers are allowing 0.8 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for Cleveland Guardians.

5.4
Miami Marlins runs/G
3.6
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
Last 5 gamesMiami MarlinsCleveland Guardians
Runs / game5.43.6
Hits / game6.65.4
Home runs / game1.41.8
Walks drawn / game2.01.2
Batter K / game2.25.4
Earned runs allowed / game0.83.0
Pitching K / game3.83.4
Walks allowed / game1.81.8
L5 record5-02-3

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Miami Marlins won 0, Cleveland Guardians won 3.

DateMiami MarlinsCleveland GuardiansWinner
Jul 1225Cleveland Guardians
Jul 1114Cleveland Guardians
Jul 1023Cleveland Guardians

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Kyle Stowers 1BOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT
Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jo Adell RFDAY-TO-DAY
Slade Cecconi SPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Colin Holderman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Cleveland Guardians -0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Cleveland Guardians ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians -2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians -2 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians -1.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians -1 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians +1 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Moneyline Cleveland Guardians ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians +1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Guardians vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Guardians. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Cleveland Guardians 3–0 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins2–5Cleveland Guardians
11 Jul 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins1–4Cleveland Guardians
10 Jul 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins2–3Cleveland Guardians
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