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Model picks & player props
MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Thu 24 Sep 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians
VS
Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox and backs Over 9 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $358.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 9 total runs
Over 9 Total Runs
You bet$10 If it wins$35.80Best price+258
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win28.7%
The price says29.4%

The model graded 70 markets for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $358 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 24 Sep 2026, 6:45 PM ET at Fenway Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9 Long-shot29% chance +258
Total Runs Members only Long-shot22% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean48% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean43% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot15% chance Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 3 props Long-shotup to 38% Members
Batter - Singles × 3 props Highup to 74% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 10 props Leanup to 48% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 7 props Highup to 67% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 1 prop Highup to 77% Members
Batter - Hits × 7 props Leanup to 60% Members
Batter - RBIs × 8 props Long-shotup to 34% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 1 prop Leanup to 55% Members
Batter - Home Runs × 8 props Long-shotup to 14% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox last met on Thu 24 Sep 2026: Cleveland Guardians won 1-0. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
9
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,311+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Cleveland Guardians

  • Colin Holderman RPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Andrew Walters RPOut

Probable pitcher

Foster Griffin SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Caleb Durbin 3BOut
  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Mickey Gasper DHOut
  • Romy Gonzalez DHDay-to-day
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Eli White CFOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
Availability updated Oct 13, 12:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Austin Hedges CLE Batter - Strikeouts
Isiah Kiner-Falefa TEX Batter - Singles
Angel Martinez CLE Batter - Singles
Chase DeLauter Batter - Total Bases
Mickey Gasper Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA3.8Home L52-3vs Cleveland Guardians L51-4

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA3.8Home L52-3vs Cleveland Guardians L51-4

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
2.7runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA3.8Home L52-3vs Cleveland Guardians L51-4

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5 games; Cleveland Guardians have won 3 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
L0–9NYYAway
L2–6CHCHome
W2–0CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome
Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–0CHWHome
W9–5CHWAway
W9–3CHWAway
L3–4CHWHome
L0–3CHWHome

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 1.8 runs per game (2-3) while Cleveland Guardians are at 5.4 (5-0); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 2.8 for Cleveland Guardians.

1.8
Boston Red Sox runs/G
5.4
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxCleveland Guardians
Runs / game1.85.4
Hits / game8.69.8
Home runs / game0.81.2
Walks drawn / game2.03.4
Batter K / game10.27.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.22.8
Pitching K / game9.29.4
Walks allowed / game3.62.8
L5 record2-35-0

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 3, Cleveland Guardians won 3.

DateBoston Red SoxCleveland GuardiansWinner
Sep 2401Cleveland Guardians
Sep 2310Boston Red Sox
Sep 2223Cleveland Guardians
May 3194Boston Red Sox
May 3091Boston Red Sox
May 2934Cleveland Guardians

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Caleb Durbin 3BOUT
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Tyron Guerrero RPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Mickey Gasper DHOUT
Romy Gonzalez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Colin Holderman RPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Andrew Walters RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Our Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox prediction for September 25, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 25, 2026 our model has run Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: Over 4.5 Total Runs (-323), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Guardians vs Sox, or as Sox vs Guardians. The most recent game between them was Thursday 24 September 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
Cleveland Guardians 13–11 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 9.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Thu 24 Sep 2026, Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox: the Guardians won 1-0.

DateGameScoreWinner
24 Sep 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox0–1Cleveland Guardians
23 Sep 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox1–0Boston Red Sox
22 Sep 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox2–3Cleveland Guardians
31 May 2026Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians4–9Boston Red Sox
30 May 2026Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians1–9Boston Red Sox
29 May 2026Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians4–3Cleveland Guardians
3 Sep 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox1–8Cleveland Guardians
2 Sep 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox11–7Boston Red Sox
1 Sep 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox6–4Boston Red Sox
27 Apr 2025Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians3–13Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

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