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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Bailey is Under 0.5 on Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs.
On the Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 47%, for a model edge of +26.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Patrick Bailey

SFG

+26.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs Under 0.5 +112 (2.12)
+26.9% Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 11:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.1%
Implied Probability
47.2%
Model Edge
+26.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs74.1%—47.2%1.35+26.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Bailey (SFG) Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Pittsburgh Pirates, all eyes will be on Patrick Bailey, but betting on him to notch more than 0.5 hits, runs, or RBIs seems like a stretch. The Guardians' pitching staff has really found its groove lately, boasting a remarkable 2.90 ERA in July, which has kept opposing batters in check. Plus, Bailey, while talented, has struggled against right-handed starters, hitting just .220 in those matchups this season. Looking at the Pirates, their lineup has been inconsistent, averaging only 3.5 runs per game over their last ten. With Guardians ace Shane Bieber on the mound, who’s been racking up strikeouts and limiting contact, Bailey might find it tough to make an impact. Given the trends and the matchup dynamics, it’s reasonable to expect Bailey to fall short of the mark tonight. Betting the under feels like a savvy move in this pitching-dominant showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%

Patrick Bailey MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%

Patrick Bailey MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Patrick Bailey MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%
O 2.510%

Patrick Bailey MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Patrick Bailey MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Patrick Bailey MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Patrick Bailey MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg walks · L5

Patrick Bailey MLB walks: averaging 0.2 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Patrick Bailey (SFG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Bailey is Under 0.5 on Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.9% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians on Friday 17 July at Progressive Field, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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