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Model picks & player props
Cleveland Guardians
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 16, 10:39AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Wed 29 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Cincinnati Reds -2.5 (Spread)
The model graded 70 markets for Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $500 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 39.1%, fair odds 2.56, book price +400, model edge +19.1%. Tip-off Wed 29 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Great American Ball Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Cleveland Guardians · $100 returned $239

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 693 of 1,394 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 16
Under 9.5
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $195
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Cincinnati Reds
-3
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cleveland Guardians

  • Slade Cecconi SPOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut

Probable pitcher

Joey Cantillo SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Probable pitcher

Brady Singer SP
Availability updated Aug 15, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 8 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability8 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Patrick Bailey Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Tyler Stephenson CIN Batter - Walks
Sal Stewart Batter - Walks
Brady Singer CIN Pitcher - Earned Runs
Brady Singer CIN Pitcher - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland GuardiansNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 3 of their last 5 games; Cleveland Guardians have won 2 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–8MIAHome
W1–0MIAHome
W9–8CHWAway
L0–5CHWAway
W5–4CHWAway
Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–1SDHome
L5–7SDHome
L0–3DETAway
W6–4DETAway
L4–6DETAway

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 3.8 runs per game (3-2) while Cleveland Guardians are at 3.0 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for Cleveland Guardians.

3.8
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
3.0
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians
Runs / game3.83.0
Hits / game6.64.8
Home runs / game1.20.6
Walks drawn / game1.81.4
Batter K / game3.85.2
Earned runs allowed / game3.63.0
Pitching K / game3.83.2
Walks allowed / game1.60.2
L5 record3-22-3

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 2, Cleveland Guardians won 4.

DateCincinnati RedsCleveland GuardiansWinner
Jul 2916Cleveland Guardians
Jul 2856Cleveland Guardians
Jul 2820Cincinnati Reds
May 17310Cleveland Guardians
May 1647Cleveland Guardians
May 1576Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

8 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Slade Cecconi SPOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Winning baseball bets for Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Steven Kwan. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians stats and odds.

Steven Kwan (CLE) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-196)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
28 Jul 26 Moneyline Cleveland Guardians ✓ HIT
28 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jul 26 Spread Cleveland Guardians +1.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 12.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds +1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Guardians vs Reds, or as Reds vs Guardians. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 29 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Cleveland Guardians 4–2 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
29 Jul 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds1–6Cleveland Guardians
28 Jul 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds2–0Cincinnati Reds
28 Jul 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds5–6Cleveland Guardians
17 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians10–3Cleveland Guardians
16 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians7–4Cleveland Guardians
15 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians6–7Cincinnati Reds
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